RBNZ’s Wheeler: No need for rapid easing • The RBNZ Governor said that rapid rate cuts could cause unsustainable growth and inflate an already overheating housing market. • Expectations for another cut as early as at the September meeting were very high. • Wheeler’s comments imply the Bank is unlikely to move again so early. […]
Yen drops as Kuroda hints at further stimulus • USD/JPY opened with a gap higher this week, following dovish comments by BoJ Gov. Kuroda. • He said that there is a “sufficient chance” the Bank will add to its stimulus program in Sept. • Speculation for a move as early as then could curb some […]
Fed’s Williams joins the “hawkish” side • The dollar’s retreat was halted yesterday, following some “hawkish” remarks from San Francisco Fed President John Williams. • He said he’d like to see another hike “sooner rather than later” and that September should definitely be in play, echoing Dudley’s remarks. • Williams is considered a close ally […]
FOMC keeps its options open but dollar slumps • In the July minutes, the FOMC kept the door open for a rate hike as soon as Sept. • However, most officials did not want to commit to anything until more data validated a rate move. • Considering that data have been mixed lately, this suggests […]
“Hawkish” Fed talk boosts the dollar • USD rallied yesterday despite disappointing CPI data, following some “hawkish” remarks from NY Fed President William Dudley. • He said that we are getting closer to a hike, which may come as early as Sept. • Fed’s Lockhart echoed his comments, saying at least 1 hike is warranted […]
RBA August minutes: Upbeat despite the rate cut • The RBA minutes were positive on the prospects of GDP growth and there were no hints that rates may be cut again this year. • AUD/USD traded choppy after the release but continued higher in the following hours. • Given the absence of an easing bias […]
Japan’s GDP data disappoint but Yen still strong • Japan’s GDP came 0.0% qoq in Q2, from +0.5% qoq in Q1, missing its forecast of a slowdown to +0.2% qoq. • Weakness driven mainly by falling exports, perhaps due to the stronger yen this year. • In our view, this increases the odds for further […]
Fed Williams: Fed should hike this year • San Francisco Fed Pre. John Williams (not a voting member) said that the Fed should raise rates this year. • USD gained a bit, supported also by weak Chinese data. Focus now on US retail sales. China’s data offer more evidence of a slowdown • China’s industrial […]
RBNZ cuts rates and signals more to come • RBNZ met market expectations and cut rates by 25bps. • Even though the Bank signalled that further easing will be required, NZD soared on the news as investors’ yield-hunting continues. • In the statement, Bank officials noted that a decline in the exchange rate is needed […]
RBNZ to pull the trigger, but will it weaken NZD? • The RBNZ rate decision will be announced during the Asian morning Thursday. • Expectations for a rate cut are extremely high. Market pricing suggests a 100% probability for a 25bps cut. • If the Bank cuts rates only by 25bps, this is likely to […]
BoE “hawk” Ian McCafferty says more easing is likely to be required • BoE’s Ian McCafferty said that if the economy turns down in line with initial surveys, then more easing is likely to be required. • Bank could cut rates further and step up its QE program, but in a gradual way. • McCafferty […]
Stellar US jobs report for July boosts the dollar • The US employment report for July was particularly strong. NFP rose 255k vs 180k exp. • Average hourly earnings accelerated. The unemployment rate remained unchanged while the labor force participation rate rose. • USD strengthened immediately. We maintain our call that both September and December […]
BoE unveils stimulus package, more easing to follow • The BoE cut the Bank Rate by 25bps and expanded its QE program by GBP 70 bn. • The officials suggested that more easing is likely to follow by the end of the year. • GBP plunged on the news as the package exceeded market expectations. […]
BoE’s “Super Thursday”: Is it time for the big guns? • Super Thursday! Alongside the rate decision and minutes, we also get the Inflation Report with updated economic forecasts and a press conference by Gov. Carney. • The BoE is widely expected to take action. Market pricing suggests a 98% probability for a 25 bps […]
Japanese officials resume intervention talk • Japan’s Vice Fin. Minister Asakawa said he is watching nervous FX moves carefully. • Considering the BoJ’s under-delivery last week and the subsequent yen appreciation, we are likely to hear more similar rhetoric. • Yen didn’t react on these comments. The likelihood for intervention could rise much more if […]
RBA cuts rates to historic low but offers no easing bias • The RBA cut its interest rate to 1.50% from 1.75% prev. Prospects for economic growth and inflation would be improved by easing. • AUD/USD fell immediately but recovered some of its losses in the following minutes. • No easing bias in the meeting […]
Soft US GDP reduces bets of a near-term Fed hike • The 1st estimate of US GDP for Q2 came in much below expectations. USD weakened and the market probability for a hike this year declined. • Solid data for Q3 are needed in order to bring forward market expectations for a near-term hike. Today […]
BoJ disappoints with only a modest stimulus dose • The BoJ raised its ETF purchases to 6 tln JPY from 3.3 tln prev. but kept interest rates and the size of its QQE program unchanged. • This disappointed investors who expected much more aggressive easing, causing JPY to recover some of its losses from the […]
FOMC: Positive tone…but nothing about hikes this year • The FOMC remained on hold and sent some hawkish signals by saying that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished”. • USD strengthened immediately, but soon gave back its gains to trade much lower. • This may have been because the Fed did not offer […]
FOMC preview: Is a more optimistic tone warranted? • The FOMC is widely expected to stand pat, with the probability for a hike close to 0%. • All the action will come from the meeting statement, which we exp. to sound more optimistic than the one in June. • Better US data and a resilient […]
Yen gains on news of the fiscal package size • JPY recovered some of its recent losses following reports on the size of the government’s planned fiscal stimulus package. • Reports indicated a 6 tln yen package. This may have disappointed investors, as market chatter suggested expectations of 10-20 tln yen. • Given that much […]
UK July PMI data signal sharp economic slowdown • UK flash PMIs signaled that the economy likely contracted in July. GBP collapsed on the news. • More soft post-referendum data may keep the currency under selling interest in coming weeks. G20 pledge to encourage growth in “Brexit” aftermath • The G20 Finance Ministers and CB […]
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• Aussie weakens on easing bias • RBA meeting minutes showed that data on inflation, employment and housing will allow the Bank to refine the outlook for economy. • This information will allow the Board to make any adjustments to the stance of policy if needed. (cut rates or stay on hold) • Board members […]
Join us for more technical and fundamental analysis: http://www.ironfx.com To get the latest Forex trading news you should: • Download the IronFX Research app: http://goo.gl/jhQIxO • Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/IronFX • Follow us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ironfx • Follow us on LinkedIn: https://goo.gl/wSEbPN • Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/IronFXGlobal • Circle us on Google+: https://www.google.com/+Ironfxglobal • Subscribe to our Channel: http://bit.ly/1foFmCU Related Posts:Technical […]
• Bank of England holds its fire, signals easing in August • BoE kept interest rates on hold with an 8-1 vote, against expectations of a 25bps cut. • Most members expect policy to be loosened in August. • GBP surged on the news. We will treat this positive reaction as a corrective move of […]
Will the Bank of England strike pre-emptively? • The BoE has signalled that it is ready to act following the “Brexit” vote. The market is expecting a 25bps rate cut today. • However, there is a chance that the Bank holds for now, and instead opts to send a dovish signal that it will ease […]
Bank of Canada to take the sidelines • The BoC is widely expected to remain on hold and perhaps sound a bit dovish. • Soft jobs data for June and the “Brexit” vote could indeed lead to a shift in language, to sound more cautious. • But we believe that the latest moves in global […]
Theresa May to be Britain’s next Prime Minister • Theresa May is expected to replace Cameron as Britain’s PM by Wednesday. • GBP surged on the news, as this dispelled a lot of political uncertainty. • May repeated yesterday that “Brexit means Brexit”. The question now is when she will trigger Article 50 (she prev. […]
• US jobs growth rebounds strongly in June • NFP came 287k vs 175k exp. Unemployment rate rose, partly due to a rebound in the labor force participation rate. Avg. hourly earnings slowed. • USD strengthened initially, but then traded in a choppy manner and gave back most of its gains. • We continue to […]
