Archives

It’s been a crazy end to the week with the results from the Brexit vote in and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets. 

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 48.56 a barrel while currently trading at 47.71 down about $1 for the trading week while selling off $2.50 this Friday afternoon. The U.S dollar is up over 200 points putting pressure on oil and the commodity sector as a whole. Crude oil prices are trading below their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is mixed as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines looking for a possible short entry in next week’s trade. Crude prices are retesting last week’s low as a possible top has been created as the Brexit situation is spooking many different markets including stock markets around the world as demand could start to wane over the next several months. The commodity markets do not like uncertainty and no one really knows how this Brexit situation will develop, but I always look at risk/reward scenarios as I do think prices may have topped out in the short term so be patient and wait for the entry criteria to come about. If a short position is initiated the risk is around $1,700 which is too much in my opinion so are going to have to be patient and wait for the chart structure to improve so keep a close eye on this market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

He has been killing it in 2016, get Chris Vermeulen’s Trading Forecasts & Trade Signals

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,295 an ounce while currently trading at 1,319 up about $25 for the trading week while skyrocketing this afternoon by $55 all due to the Brexit situation which is pouring money back into the precious metals. At present, I’m sitting on the sidelines in the gold market as the chart structure never met my criteria to enter into a bullish position. However, I am recommending a bullish position in the silver market which is also up about $.50 today as I do think the precious metals are headed higher. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that short term trend is higher. The commodity markets, in general, are very weak as all of the interest is back into the precious metals which is used as a flight to quality despite the fact that the U.S dollar was up over 200 points this afternoon. Gold prices are trading at a 2 year high as I do think this trend will continue as stock markets around the world are sharply lower as interest in gold certainly has come back like it was in 2011 when prices traded as high as $1,900 an ounce. Negative interest rates around the world continue to support the gold market and that situation is not going to change as the United States Federal Reserve certainly will not be raising rates in 2016 in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Check out Adam’s Hewison’s “World Cup Portfolio”

The U.S dollar is sharply higher this Friday afternoon trading at 95.53 up 200 points reacting sharply to the Brexit situation as the UK has exited the EU sending the dollar up 300 points over the last 2 trading sessions. At present, I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market as the chart structure is terrible as I’m advising clients to avoid this market currently as volatility is extremely high, but in my opinion, it certainly does look like the U.S dollar has bottomed in the short term. The dollar is affecting many commodities to the downside as nobody wants to hold money in Europe at this point as a flight to quality is taking place. I think that’s going to stay for several more weeks until the dust settles so look at other markets that are beginning to trend with better chart structure as the 10 day low is $3,000 away which does not meet my criteria to enter into a new bullish position. The U.S dollar is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher so do not sell this market as that would be counter trend trading which is very dangerous over the course of time in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

Get more of Mike Seerys call on commodities this week….Just Visit Here

Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,358.21 in a ultra high volume. In reaction of massive buying climax from the top, the price managed to go into bearish correction and the Gold tested $1,306.00. According to the 15M time frame, I found strong […]

Wave summary: We have seen the expected decline to 1.5604 (the low has been seen at 1.5545), which has completed wave (i), and we are now looking for a corrective rally in wave (ii) towards 1.6005 and maybe even closer to 1.6115 before this correction comes to an end. A new impulsive decline in wave […]

Wave summary: The UK voted itself out of the EU, and risk aversion favored the USD and especially the JPY. We will not say that this was a black swan, but the excessive moves in the JPY certainly weren’t a natural outcome from the Brexit. The strong decline below 115.46 calls for more downside pressure […]

Gold price broken to new highs after the results of the UK’s EU referendum. As I mentioned yesterday, the technical view on Gold was that a bounce should follow at least towards $1,280, and there were also many chances that the entire decline was over at the $1,250-60 area. Blue lines – bearish channel Gold […]

Global macro overview for 24/06/2016: A mixed bag of data regarding the Eurozone flash PMI’s was released yesterday. For the whole EU, only the Manufacturing PMI has beaten the expectations raising to 52.6 points, a 1.1 point more than the previous month’s reading and 1.2 points more than the expected number. The Services PMI for […]

The price reached our target at 1.0550 perfectly yesterday and saw a reaction off it. Now we look to buy on ascending support at 1.0425 for a rise to 1.0525/1.0550 again. Trading recommendations: Buy at 1.0425 level Take profit at 1.0550 and 1.0525 Stop loss at 1.0400 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company […]

Overview The gold price shows slight negative trading gradually heading towards our awaited target at 1,243.17 as the price is affected by the previously completed triple top pattern. The mentioned level represents the full target of the negative pattern, which means that the chances to resume the main bullish trend again will be valid. Therefore, […]

Overview The silver price shows clear bullish attempts now moving away from the EMA 50, thus supporting our expectations for bullish trend continuation today. Its first target is at 18.00. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period. It might be preceded by some slight bearish bias affected by […]

Klondex Mines reported again good Q1-2016 results and is full on track to meet production guidance, Jochen Staiger, CEO, Swiss Resource Capital AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#187011 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en su idioma: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvspanish […]

Altona Mining and SRIG from China signed a 240 Mio. US$ deal to bring the Little Eva mine in production by 2019, Jochen Staiger, CEO & Founder, Swiss Resource Capital AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#187229 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: […]

Brazil Resources acquires advanced gold projects and bought in the last 3 years 5 resource projects in Brazil and Alaska, Jochen Staiger, CEO, Swiss Resource Capital AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#187004 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV […]

Overview The gold price tested the EMA50 that formed a good support base against the last negative attempts, while stochastic begins to provide a positive overlapping signal on the four-hour time frame. This gives the price a positive motive that we expected to reinforce the expectations for further gains on a short-term basis. Therefore, we […]

Negative interest rates are now normal in the world of sovereign debt with over 51% of all real interest rates are negative of the sovereign debt in the world, Jochen Staiger, CEO, Swiss Resource Capital AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#186999 Смотрите Dukascopy TV […]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading downward. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,272.31 in a high volume. The analysis from yesterday is still active and it is a good progress so far. I found a massive sell-off in a heavy volume, which is a sign that buying looks very […]

Technical outlook and chart setups: Gold continues to consolidatie within the triangle structure of dropping resistance and constant support for now. The metal is trading lower for the day at $1,283.50 levels at this moment, looking to test its support area at $1,275.00 levels again. The wave structure indicates that higher probability remains for a […]

Gold price made a bearish reversal last week confirming a short-term top is in. Price reached the first important support area of $1,270-75 but I believe we should expect more downside in Gold price specially if we see a daily close below $1,270. Red horizontal line -support Price is still trading above the 4-hour Kumo […]

Historical performance and chart data for Randgold Resources Limited Chart Data is delayed by at least 1 hour on this exchange Related Posts:Market Comment – Iranian attacks put markets on edge, but… April 15, 2024 Markets steady after Israel and allies intercept Iranian missiles and…

Endeavour Silver is in the mood to finance another 40 Mio. $ for their future growth. The production is generating positive cash flow and the company is working on their 4th mine Terronera and just bought into Oro Silver with the El Campo project which should become the 5th mine and production site then. Jochen […]

Related Posts:Will Netflix earnings take the share price closer to its… April 15, 2024 Netflix is set to announce strong EPS and revenue growth…Market Comment – Iranian attacks put markets on edge, but… April 15, 2024 Markets steady after Israel and allies intercept Iranian missiles and…Financial future on the horizon: US stocks rise ahead of… […]

Related Posts:EUR/USD: Waiting for price turbulence April 9, 2024 The euro-dollar pair continues to hold within the range of…Market Comment – Gold shines bright, yen knocks on… April 9, 2024 Gold prices remain near record highs – is the rally…Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of… April 8, 2024 EUR/USDAnalysis:On the chart of the […]

Stocks Report: JD.com, Inc. JD broke support level 22.00 Likely to fall to 20.00  JD continues to fall – following the earlier breakout of the major long-term support level 22.00, […] The post HY Newsletter – Gold Rising Inside C-wave appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog. Source: HY Markets News Related Posts:Trading Signals […]

By Jeff Thomas

For over a hundred years, it’s been theorised that author L. Frank Baum wrote his 1900 book, “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”, as a fanciful way to explain the economic situation at the time and that the Yellow Brick Road was a reference to the path created by gold ownership. Whether or not the theory is correct, for many people today, “Follow the Yellow Brick Road” might serve as a mantra for alleviating economic woes.

What will happen is that one day, gold will suddenly be up $100 per ounce, then the next day, $200 per ounce. At first the pundits will be claiming that it’s an anomaly, but as it continues rising, a point will be reached when the average person says to himself, “This seems to be a trend. I’d better buy some gold.” 

Unfortunately, once the trend is underway, the price that day will have no bearing on whether gold is available. Your local coin shop may be sold out. If you go online, the mints may say that demand is exceeding supply. Large entities will be buying all they can get and the smaller buyers will be way down on the order list, unlikely to take delivery of even a single ounce.

These Are the Good Old Days

Gold has experienced a four year bear market and only recently has begun to rise again. But is it in reality a barbarous relic? Not by a long shot. For over 5,000 years, whenever people have experienced erratic economic periods, they’ve bought gold in order to stabilise their economic position. This has particularly been true whenever fiat currencies have been on the rise and were in danger of hyper-inflating, as in recent years. Most currencies are in decline against the U.S. dollar—a currency which, itself, is very much in danger of collapse in the not-too-distant future.

In the ’70s, I was buying gold in London, as it rose from $35. It reached a high of $850 in January, 1980, then crashed. When gold dropped below $400, I began buying Krugerrands. Sounds like a bargain, and yet, word on the street was that gold was headed further south. But I was buying long. I was not playing the market; I was building my economic insurance policy. I wasn’t too fussed over price fluctuations, as my gold holdings were meant to cover me if my other investments proved to be a mistake.

At present, gold is well above the high of 1989, but, if we adjust for inflation, we see that gold is actually a bargain at present. This excellent Casey Research chart from 2014 explains it better than mere words:

This tells us that $8,800 would not be an unreasonable level for gold today, if conditions were as dire as they were in 1980. However, conditions are far more dire—debt levels are far beyond any historical levels and markets are in a bubble, just waiting for the arrival of a pin.

A decade ago, when gold topped $700, I predicted $1,500 at some point and even my closest colleagues wondered what I’d been smoking. But it turned out that my prediction was, if anything, conservative. Over the last four years, some of the world’s most informed prognosticators—Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff, Jim Rickards, and Jim Sinclair—have all predicted gold to rise to between $5,000 and $7,000, and some have suggested numbers as high as $50,000. But this hasn’t happened. Are they wrong? No, it just hasn’t happened as of yet.

Conversely, Harry Dent has predicted a drop to $750. So, who’s right? Well, actually, they may all be right. After a crash in the markets, deflation is a certainty, as brokers and investors dump investments of every type in order to cover margin losses. This panic sell off will most assuredly include gold, even though the holders will not wish to sell their gold. This panic promises to create an immediate and possibly very dramatic downward spike in gold.

However, large numbers of long term investors already have their orders in for any price below $1,000. If the spike drops below that number, it will therefore be brief, as every ounce that hits the market at $999 is scooped up. In addition, the Federal Reserve will make good on its decades-long promise to roll the printing presses to counter any sudden deflation. That very act will light the fuse on the gold rocket and send it skyward.

Will the Sun Rise in the Morning or Set in the Evening?

The argument over whether gold will drop to $750 or rise to $5,000 is a pointless one. Any understanding of basic economics assures us that we shall see both sudden deflation and dramatic inflation. It’s as natural and inevitable as sunrise and sunset. (By the way, several of the above individuals have standing bets with each other as to the $750 number. The prize? An ounce of gold.)

But it matters little who will win the bets. What matters is the overview. Rickety economic times are now upon us and they will soon morph into crisis times. In such times, precious metals always return to centre stage, as paper currencies and electronic currencies return to their intrinsic worth of zero. Gold does not so much rise against fiat currencies, as fiat currencies collapse against gold.

Most assuredly, we shall see a dramatic rise in gold, but, just as in the ‘70s, the average person will fail to understand why and will simply chase the upward trend. When gold hits $2,000, but no one is willing to sell for under, say, $2,500, those who are chasing the trend will pay the $2,500 and that will become the new price across the board. Then it will leap higher—again and again, as monetary panic grips the investment world. The inflation-adjusted 1980 price of $8,800 should not be a surprise at all—in fact it would be low, as, in the coming years, conditions will be far more dire than in 1980. Gold may well blow through $10,000. Even the $50,000 figure is not impossible, as we shall be seeing a runaway bull market where those chasing the trend carry gold beyond any rational value.

But gold has an intrinsic value. 2,000 years ago, an ounce of gold could buy you a good suit of clothes. That’s still true today. A gold mania will fuel the gold price beyond anything logical, but a correction will be equally inevitable, dropping it to its intrinsic value. We shall see a gold rise for the record books. The wise investor should already have stocked up his supply of physical gold and gotten rid of gold ETFs. He should already have his seat belt fastened and ready for take off. We’re off to see the wizard.

Editor’s Note: Owning gold is the first step to protecting your wealth from stock market crashes, currency collapses or destructive government policies. But there are many other steps you can take to protect yourself during an economic collapse. We put together a free video to show you exactly how. 

Click here to watch this video now.

Get out latest FREE eBooK “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here

Uranium Energy Corp. holds a large portfolio of 20 projects in 5 US states and in Paraguay, Jochen Staiger, CEO & Founder, Swiss Resource Capital AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#185549 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en […]

By Justin Spittler

It’s official. The bear market in commodities is over. If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know commodities have been in a crushing bear market for more than five years. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 22 different commodities, has plunged 58% since April 2011.

In January, it hit its lowest level since 1999. Then, commodity prices took off. According to the Financial Times, 15 out of the 22 commodities that make up the Bloomberg Commodity Index are up on the year. The price of oil is up 85% since February. Sugar is up 81% since August. Soybeans are up 33% since March.

The index is up 11%. It’s off to its best start to any year since 2008. And it’s up 21% since mid-January.
According to the popular definition, a bull market begins when a stock, commodity, or index rises 20% from a low. By that measure, commodities are “officially” in a bull market.

You can see how commodities have bottomed in the chart below:

For months, we’ve been saying commodities were close to a bottom..…
The 5-plus year bear market in commodities has slammed the world’s largest miners. According to accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers, the world’s 40 largest publicly traded miners lost a combined $27 billion last year. To survive, commodity companies have cut spending to the bone. They laid off hundreds of thousands of workers. They sold parts of their business and abandoned projects. Some companies even cut their prized dividends.

This is classic behavior of a bottom..…
As you may know, commodities are cyclical. They go through big booms and busts. That’s because commodities like copper, natural gas, and oil have unique supply/demand dynamics. For example, when oil prices get too low, many companies that produce oil go out of business. Also, when oil prices are cheap, folks are likely to use more of it. You’re likely to drive more when gasoline prices are cheap than when they’re expensive.

Eventually, prices get so low that demand exceeds supply. Prices bottom out and begin to rise. That’s when a commodity bear market turns into a commodity bull market. When a commodity bull market gets going, the gains can be huge. During the 2002–2008 commodity bull market, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 172%. Shares of some of the world’s largest mining companies climbed many times higher. For example, Anglo American (AAL.L) returned 464% over the period. BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) returned 1,106%.

The weak dollar has also given commodities a boost..…
The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen 5% this year. This index tracks the dollar’s performance against major currencies like the euro and Japanese yen. The dollar is the world’s most important currency. Most investors “think” in dollars. If you look up the price of sugar, corn, or gold, you’ll see its price in dollars. So when the dollar loses value, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of a commodity. That’s why a weak dollar is good for commodities.

Still, there’s at least one reason to be skeptical about the rally in commodities..…
Commodities are the “building blocks” of the global economy. And Dispatch readers know that economic growth has come to a standstill. China, the world’s largest commodity consumer, is growing at its slowest pace since 1990. The U.S. is growing at its slowest pace since World War II. Japan’s economy hasn’t grown at all in two decades. When the economy slows, developers build fewer homes, office buildings, and bridges. That means they use less copper, aluminum, steel, and other commodities.

If you’re buying commodities today, make sure to buy ones that can do well while the economy struggles..…
Some commodities depend more on economic growth than others. For example, lumber, which is used to build homes, benefits from the tailwind of a growing economy. Soybean prices, on the other hand, can rise no matter how well the economy is doing. That’s because people have to eat no matter what’s happening with the economy.

So while the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 11% this year, not every commodity has rallied. Natural gas prices are still down 9% on the year. Copper is down 3%. Meanwhile, soybean prices are up 34% Although several Casey analysts have recommended commodity investments this year, they’ve been very selective about the types of commodities they recommend. This approach has paid off…..

Most investors would do well owning just gold..…
As we often say, gold is real money. It’s preserved wealth for thousands of years because it has unique set of qualities: It’s durable, easy to transport, and easily divisible. It has intrinsic value that folks recognize around the world. Like many commodities, gold “officially” entered a new bull market earlier this year. It’s in an uptrend, yet still cheap. It’s trading 34% below its 2011 high. Unlike many commodities, gold can do well even if the economy is struggling. It’s a safe haven asset that’s protected wealth through history’s worst financial crises.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey thinks we’re on the verge of a major financial crisis..…
Doug says the coming crisis will be “much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.” When it hits, “paper currencies will fall apart, as they have many times throughout history.”
Doug says this will spark a “true mania” in gold. That’s why we encourage everyone own physical gold. Putting just 10% or 15% of your wealth in gold could help you avoid big losses during the next financial crisis.

Finally, an important announcement from Jim Rickards..…
Part of our job at Casey Research is to share interesting opportunities with you. That’s why we’re passing along this important news from our good friend Jim Rickards. You’ve probably heard of Rickards. He’s one of the most respected analysts in the business. He’s a gold expert and author of The New Case for Gold. Jim recently launched a new service to help readers take advantage of the coming gold boom. Because he’d like as many folks as possible to read his service, he’s arranged a special deal exclusive to Casey Research readers. You can learn more by watching this free video. In short, if you take Rickards up on his special offer today, he’ll send you two “G-series” gold coins in the mail.

Again, this deal is only for Casey Research readers. Click here for the full story.

REMINDER: Casey Research founder Doug Casey will be in Poland next weekend..…
Doug will be presenting at the “Alternative for Difficult Times” seminar in Warsaw on June 18 and 19. Nick Giambruno, editor of International Man, will be there too. Doug and Nick will be there for the Polish launch of Doug’s classic book, Crisis Investing. They will also be presenting at a seminar discussing the impending global financial hurricane, the state of freedom around the world, and how you can protect yourself and even profit from these trends.

Click here for more information.

Chart of the Day

Gold has been one of the best places to put your money this year. Today’s chart shows the performance of gold, commodities, bonds, U.S. stocks, and global stocks this year. You can see gold is up 17% this year. It’s crushed stocks, bonds, and even commodities as a group. For most of this year, gold was the top performing commodity. It was up more than 22% at one point. Then, it cooled off. It’s down more than 3% since late April.

We think gold is in the early innings of a major bull market. And, as we often say, bull markets don’t move in straight lines. It’s healthy for gold to take a “breather” after its red hot start to the year. If you’re looking to buy gold, we recommend using down days as buying opportunities. And again, for specifics on a coming opportunity in gold, we recommend you check out Jim Rickards’ short video right here.

Get our latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!

Official ‘Out’ campaign in the UK’s EU membership referendum gives the case for the UK to leave the EU by focusing on Europe, Matthew Elliott, CEO, Vote Leave You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#183689 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy […]

    One of the most important questions you would have to ask yourself before getting into trading and before you make your first trade, is “who do you want […] The post Six Key Factors for Choosing A Suitable Forex Broker appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog. Source: HY Markets News Related […]

Sector selection and companies in oil, gas, mining or gold? Dr. Torsten Dennin, Tiberius Asset Management AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#184466 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en su idioma: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvspanish Schauen Sie Dukascopy TV in Ihrer […]

The future development of crude oil. Dr. Torsten Dennin, Tiberius Asset Management AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#184392 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en su idioma: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvspanish Schauen Sie Dukascopy TV in Ihrer Sprache: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvgerman Regardez la […]

Is now the time to get into precious metals? Dr. Torsten Dennin, Tiberius Asset Management AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#184397 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en su idioma: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvspanish Schauen Sie Dukascopy TV in Ihrer Sprache: […]