General overview for 04/07/2016: The corrective cycle in wave iv is evolving into a complex and time-consuming pattern, possibly a triangle or any other WXY complex structure. The technical resistance at the level of 115.48 is still the most important level for any bullish rally as it can not be violated. There is still one […]
The First trading day of the busy week ahead is expected to be on a light tone as the US celebrates its Independence Day and the markets there are closed. Further down the week, we have a lot of data to set the tone. FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will reveal the discussion on keeping rates unchanged […]
It is doubtful that anyone predicted that the financial markets would settle down only a week after the Brexit vote. Well, everyone was right because they didn’t. The UK stock markets moved with increases during most of the week following Bank of England’s (BOE) comments for possible monetary measures following the referendum’s ‘Leave’ result. BOE’s […]
Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,337.91 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found that demand is in control in the market. Anyway, the today point of control is set at the price of $1,333.90. Watch for breakout […]
On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations. On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant […]
Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets. In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed. Later on May 6, daily candlestick […]
Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur. The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March […]
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450. In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in […]
Yesterday afternoon, BoE governor Mark Carney delivered a very dovish speech, mentioning that the bank is considering host of measures to guard the economy from the shocks of Brexit and will act during the summer months, which was seen as a hint that the BoE will cut interest rates for the first time since 2012. […]
Gold has broken out of the triangle consolidation and is making higher highs and higher lows. The price is heading at least towards the $1,360 high with expectations of breaking it and reaching $1,400 by the end of next week. Black lines – triangle pattern (broken) Gold continues to trade above the Ichimoku cloud and, […]
General overview for 01/07/2016: The ongoing complex corrective cycle in wave iv can be completed anytime. According to the Elliott Wave Theory, the price is still trying to complete wave (Z) of the overall corrective structure in wave B before the uptrend eventually resumes. The most important level for bulls is the technical resistance at […]
Overview The gold price showed positive trading yesterday, but it is again fluctuating with slight negativity. The price is affected by stochastic negativity shown on the four-hour time frame that is likely to get rid of this negativity and gain enough positive momentum to make the price resume the main bullish wave, which gets continuous […]
Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,318.50. According to the 30M time frame, I found the key point of control from the massive bullish day in the background is set at the price of $1,317.50. Today, I found buying tails from the bottom at the price of $1,313.20. […]
Overview: The NZD/USD pair is trading in a narrow sideways channel, and the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still trapped between the levels of 0.7050 and 0.7140. In the H1 time frame, resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.7050 and 0.7140 respectively. In addition, the […]
Overview: The USD/CHF pair is facing strong resistances at the levels of 0.9836 and 0.9801 because the tend couldn’t break this sport yesterday. So, the strong resistance is already seen at the level of 0.9836 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and continue its bearish […]
The Dollar index continues to trade inside the consolidation range and inside the pennant formation. The trend is neutral for the short term, but I expect an upward breakout towards 99 over the coming weeks. Black lines – pennant formation The Dollar index is trading above the Kumo on the 4 hour chart with the […]
Gold has completed 5 waves up in the short term from $1,305 to $1,328 and also made a corrective pullback towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This is the first short-term bullish signal after the spike last week, and as long as we hold above $1,305, we can say that the next leg up has started. […]
Global macro overview for 30/06/2016: The crude oil inventories data revealed a deeper drain in stockpiles than anticipated. The indicator plunged by 4100k barrels, compared to an estimate of -2500k, way below the last week figure of -917k only. US crude oil stockpiles have declined for six straight weeks, with the recent one being the […]
EUR/GBP is expected to continue its bullish rebound. The pair has posted a pullback and is rebounding on its support at 0.8200. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Further bounce is expected with 0.8320 and 0.8380 as the next targets. Only a break below the […]
AUD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair eventually broke above the key resistance at 0.7380 before rallying further. It has reversed a bearish pattern of lower highs while establishing a bullish trading channel at the same time. Currently, it is trading above the 20-period moving average, which stands above the 50-period […]
EUR/USD: This market is bearish – there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is pointing to the overbought region, though that could end up being an opportunity to sell short. Long trades are not yet recommended here unless […]
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range and is supported by a rising trend line. On Wednesday, US stock indices kept rallying along with global markets, led by financial and energy shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained another 1.6%, climbing to 17694, the S&P 500 rose 1.7% to 2070, and the Nasdaq […]
GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair has been supported by a rising trend line, as well as the 20-period and 50-period moving averages and continues its rebound. The relative strength index stays above 50. Further bounce is expected with 139.65 and 140.85 as targets. Trading recommendations: The pair is trading […]
Europe’s banking system is collapsing. Over the past year, shares of Deutsche Bank (DB), Germany’s biggest bank, have plunged 56%. Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse (CS) is down 62% over the same period. Yesterday, both stocks hit record lows.
Dozens of other European bank stocks have also crashed. The Euro STOXX Banks, which tracks 48 of Europe’s largest banks, is down 48% over the past year. This is a major issue. That’s because banks are the cornerstone of the financial system. They keep money flowing through the economy. If they’re struggling, it often means the economy is having major problems. Right now, European banks are flashing bright warning signs. That’s not just bad news for Europe—it’s also a serious threat to the rest of the world.
In today’s Dispatch, we’ll show you why Europe’s banking crisis could turn into a global banking crisis. You’ll also learn how to transform this threat into a chance to make big gains.
European banks are struggling to make money..…
Spanish banking giant BBVA’s (BBVA) profits fell 54% last quarter. First quarter profits at Deutsche Bank were down 58%. Swiss bank UBS’s (UBS) profits plunged 64%. European banks are hurting for a couple reasons. One, Europe is growing at the slowest pace in decades. Banks are making fewer loans as a result.
Two, negative interest rates are eating European banks alive. If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know negative rates are the latest radical government policy. They basically flip your bank account upside down. Instead of earning interest for keeping money in the bank, you pay the bank to hold your money.
Negative rates are clearly bad for savers. They’re also hurting Europe’s biggest banks. That’s because these huge institutions have to pay their “bank,” the European Central Bank (ECB). Today, European banks pay £4 for every £1,000 they store at the ECB for a year. That might not sound like a lot. But it adds up quick when you manage trillions of euros like these banks do.
Last week, investors got another reason to avoid European banks..…
On Thursday, Great Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU), which it’s been in since 1973.
The “Brexit,” as the media is calling it, blindsided investors. As we explained yesterday, the market was expecting Great Britain to stay in EU. The unexpected outcome triggered a global stock market crash.
U.S. stocks had their worst day since August. Japanese stocks had their worst day in five years. European stocks had their biggest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. Friday’s global selloff erased $2.1 trillion in value from global stocks. It was the global stock market’s worst day in history. The panic didn’t die down much over the weekend. By the end of Monday, another $930 billion had disappeared from the global stock market.
European bank stocks were hit the hardest..…
Deutsche Bank plunged 22% between Friday and Monday. Credit Suisse fell 23%. UBS fell 20%. Barclays (BCS) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) each plunged 37%. Both stocks are down more than 57% over the past year. These are gigantic moves in a matter of days. Remember, we’re not talking about small biotech stocks. These are some of the most important financial institutions on the planet.
Government officials are scrambling to contain the crisis..…
Today, the Bank of England (BoE) injected £3.1 billion into Britain’s banking system. It’s pledged to inject as much as £250 billion to stabilize its financial system. The BoE made its cash injection hours after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) pumped $1.5 billion into its banking system. As we’ll show you in a second, we don’t believe this will end well. That’s because this excessive money printing (sometimes called “quantitative easing”) doesn’t stimulate the economy like governments intend it to.
Credit Suisse says other central banks could soon print more money too. Bloomberg Business reported on Friday:
“Market liquidity and overall liquidity in the U.K. is drying up as we speak in a very rapid way,” said John Woods, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at Credit Suisse Private Banking, told Bloomberg TV in Hong Kong. “It’s highly likely that we see monetary easing in a coordinated response” from central banks across the world, he said.
Great Britain is headed for a recession..…
A recession is when an economy shrinks two quarters in a row. Goldman Sachs (GS) says Britain could be in a recession by early 2017. But here’s the thing. We don’t think the BoE will let this happen. That’s because central bankers will do anything, including using reckless, unproven monetary policies, to avoid a recession these days.
Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s agrees with us. Reuters reported today:
“Brexit is likely to represent a drag of about 1.2 percent of GDP for the UK in 2017,” Jean-Michel Six, S&P’s chief economist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa told a conference call for investors on Tuesday. “We have a significant slowdown but growth remains positive although obviously in a much more disappointing way. That is because we anticipate a very strong monetary response on the part of the Bank of England, in the form of additional quantitative easing, in the form of a further cut in interest rates,” he added.
Bank of America (BAC) and Deutsche Bank also expect the BoE to fire up the printing press again. Bank of America says it could happen as soon as August.
QE won’t help Great Britain’s economy..…
As we told you above, QE doesn’t work. As regular readers know, the Federal Reserve pumped $3.5 trillion into the U.S financial system after the 2008 financial crisis. This massive money printing effort was supposed to juice the economy. But the U.S. is growing at its slowest pace since World War II. QE also failed to jumpstart Japan’s economy, which hasn’t grown in two decades. There’s no reason to think it will work this time.
If you’re nervous about the global financial system, we encourage you to take action today.…
The first thing you should do is own physical gold. Gold is real money. It’s held its value for thousands of years because it has a unique set of attributes: It’s easy to transport, easily divisible, and durable. You can take a gold coin anywhere in the world and folks will immediately recognize its value.
Unlike paper money, central bankers cannot create gold from nothing. It’s the ultimate antidote to crumbling paper currencies. That’s why the price of gold often soars when governments print money. This year, gold is up 24%. It’s trading at the highest price in two years. But it could go much higher as governments continue to run reckless monetary experiments.
If you want big profits from rising gold prices, own gold stocks..…
Dispatch readers know gold miners are leveraged to the price of gold. A small jump in the price of gold can cause gold stocks to surge. Gold’s 24% jump this year has caused GDX, a fund that tracks large gold stocks, to soar 96%. We believe this gold stock rally is just getting started. During the 2000 and 2003 gold bull market, the average gold stock gained 602%. The best ones soared 1,000% or more.
Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, has recommended two gold stocks this year..…
He already closed out one of them for a quick double. It surged 103% in 14 months. Nick’s other gold stock is up 30% since March and is still dirt cheap at today’s levels. Nick currently rates this stock a “Buy”…and says it could soon start paying a double digit dividend yield if gold keeps rising.
You can learn more about Nick’s gold stock by taking advantage of our special 60%-off sale for Crisis Investing. If you sign up today, you’ll be enrolled in a trial membership, which gives you 90 days risk-free to decide if the service is for you. But we encourage you to act soon. This special offer ends soon, and we likely won’t open this offer again for a long time.
You can learn more about this incredible offer by watching this video presentation. You’ll also learn about an even bigger threat to your wealth than Europe’s banking crisis. As you’ll see, almost no one is talking about this coming crisis. Yet, it could cause millions of Americans to lose their entire life savings. By the end of this video, you’ll know how to protect yourself. And just as importantly, you’ll know how to profit from this coming crisis. Click here to watch this free video.
U.S. bank stocks are also headed lower. Today’s chart shows the performance of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) over the past year. XLF holds 94 major U.S. financial companies including behemoths JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC). You can see XLF is down 11% since last June. While that’s not as severe as the near 50% drop in European banks over the same period, it’s still a clear sign to stay away.
U.S. banks have many of the same problems as European banks. Like Europe, the U.S. economy is growing at the slowest pace in decades. And while the U.S. economy doesn’t have negative rates yet, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said they aren’t “off the table” if the U.S. economy runs into trouble. The arrival of negative rates to the U.S. could tip bank stocks into a crisis, just like they have in Europe.
The article Warning: This Could Be the Start of a Global Banking Crisis was originally published at caseyresearch.com.
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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,305.25 in a low volume. According to the 4H time frame, I found a strong upward trend in the background. The price went into a bearish correction, which is a normal reaction after the massive demand in the background. I […]
Technical outlook and chart setups: Silver is seen to be trading at $17.60/70 levels at this moment, after easing out from $18.30 levels last week. The metal has been drifting sideways since then in a dropping wedge format. The immediate wave structure indicates that Silver is trading above its trend line support for now and […]
Technical outlook and chart setups: Gold had rallied through $1,358.00 level last week, a relatively less probable move. The metal is seen to be trading at $1,316.00 levels at this moment, drifting sideways since last Friday. The wave structure indicates that Gold might have produced a bottom at $1,200.00 level now, and should be looking […]
Gold continues to consolidate sideways. I expect this consolidation to break to the upside towards new highs soon. There is a triangle being formed, and we will have a clear picture of the breakout when it occurs. Green lines – triangle pattern Gold is trading inside the triangle pattern with support at $1,308 and resistance […]
Wave summary: We are looking for slightly more correction in wave (ii) closer to 1.5895 before turning lower in wave (iii) towards 1.4490. In the short term, a break below minor support at 1.5484 will confirm that the correction in wave (ii) is complete and wave (iii) lower towards 1.4490 is developing. Trading recommendation: We […]
Wave summary: We are looking for minor resistance at 113.24 being able to protect the upside for the next stage of the decline towards 107.87 to end wave iii and set the stage for a larger correction in wave iv to 113.28 before moving down again in wave v. In the short term, a break […]
