This morning the Euro traded lower on mixed messages from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen stated that the central bank needs to be patient with tightening due to lower-than-expected inflation and political risks, leaving the door open to an extension to the ECB’s stimulus package. However, Vitas Vasiliauskas became […]
Lately, market participants are not just focusing on the scheduled Economic Data releases and reports. The current ongoing global volatility in equities and the forex market is also being influenced by geopolitical reports and events. The main driver for the recent US equity indices recovery was the reduction in trade war concerns that initially caused […]
The US and South Korea have reached agreement on a Trade deal that comes with the added bonus for South Korea of a permanent exemption from Steel Tariffs imposed by the US. The arrangement is to allow South Korea to export up to 2.68 million tons of steel to the US each year, equivalent to […]
The UK 100 index has fallen below its February low at 6916.3, painting a bearish picture for 2018. The level was lost in the US session yesterday, and the index reached a low of 6835.7 overnight. Attempts to recover this morning are stalling above 6900.0. The increase in international trade tension has led to a […]
Much of the focus on Wednesday was on the FOMC announcements, where the Fed raised their target interest rate by 0.25% but continued to see only two more rate hikes this year for a total of three. The announcement invoked a retracement in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, which benefits higher-yielding currencies such as the […]
After the FOMC yesterday, the US 30 index initially moved higher to test towards 25000.00 but failed, as it ran into the blue trend line resistance and faded down to a low of 24679.5, which has been taken out this morning. Today’s low is extending to 24522.2. This paints a bearish picture for the index, […]
FOMC Meeting Preview On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will finish its first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since Chair Jerome Powell was confirmed as the central bank’s head. The Fed is expected to hike its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 0.25% to 1.75%. This would bring the effective Fed […]
The US has agreed to drop its proposed Auto Content from NAFTA, opening the way for progress to be made on the trade agreement. USDCAD dropped on the news, breaking through trend line support down to 1.30097 but has moved back to the current levels around 1.30395. Resistance is found near the broken trend line […]
The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision was as expected and left rates unchanged at 0.5%. The BOE Minutes, BOE Quarterly Inflation Report and the Monetary Policy Statement were released at the same time. BOE Asset Purchase Facility was left unchanged, as expected, at £435B. While no change in rate was expected, the tone and […]
The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged today at 0.5% but will potentially lay the groundwork for a hike of rates in May. Market analysts will look to the Monetary Policy Summary for guidance indicating any hawkish tone on the back of Brexit progress and a pickup in economic data this week. […]
Note: Wednesday is a Bank Holiday in Japan, banks will be closed, and there will be no trading activity due to the Vernal Equinox Day Bank Holiday. Progress has been made on NAFTA, as the US has backed down and dropped the demand that all vehicles made in Canada and Mexico that are sold into […]
Following on from the list of retaliatory trade tariffs drawn up by the EU over the weekend, the risk-off sentiment deepened in markets yesterday, with the US 500 index breaking down out of its triangle and the NASDAQ breaking lower to form a bearish island reversal pattern. On a quiet day for data releases, there […]
Over the weekend, the EU published a list of tariffs on US products in response to the US tariffs on Steel and Aluminium. The total value of EU tariffs is up to €6.4 billion and this list is for “stakeholder consultation” purposes only. The EU will make the decision on whether to impose the tariffs […]
The Canadian Dollar declined on Tuesday, after a dovish sounding speech by Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. Poloz suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes may become more gradual, as the economy expands without triggering inflation. There was also a mention of the uncertainty over the future of U.S. trade policies. The NAFTA […]
The US 30 Index fell yesterday after headlines broke that the US Sec of State was being sacked by the President. The index closed at 25007.00 (down -0.68%) on the news, pushed further down late in the US session by the President’s call for $60B worth of trade tariffs on imported Chinese goods. Sentiment remains […]
Overshadowing the economic data yesterday was the sacking of US Secretary of State Tillerson. The President nominated current CIA Director Mike Pompeo to become the new Sec of State. The President also name-dropped Larry Kudlow to fill the vacancy left by Gary Cohn as his Chief Economic Advisor. On a more market-orientated level, President Trump […]
Bitcoin price has not recovered yet, with the cryptocurrency currently under further decline, now trading between $8800-$9900. The crypto market seems depressed, despite Wall Street analyst Thomas Lee’s Bitcoin Mystery Index giving a buy signal. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation is now struggling to surpass $400 billion, which begins to emerge as a new short-term resistance […]
The Japanese Yen has weakened against other major currencies in recent sessions, amid a political scandal engulfing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government. Japan’s ministry of finance reported that it altered documents relating to a discounted sale of state-owned land to a school operator associated with the Prime Minister’s wife. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) […]
The EURUSD pair has managed to find support and resistance at previously broken trend lines and has pulled back to the 1.23000 level, forming what looks to be wedge across it. This can happen around important levels as sellers and buyers battle for control. The wedge can be a continuation pattern but can also cause […]
U.S. equities rallied sharply on Friday, after the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. The U.S economy added 313,000 jobs last month, much better than expectations of about 205,000, with unemployment holding steady at 4.1%. Moreover, hourly earnings surprised to the downside, rising a modest 0.1% and cutting the annual pace to just 2.6%, from […]
The USDCAD pair has risen to test 1.30000 in recent sessions and has dropped back to test support at 1.28000 as a backstop. As price is caught between these areas, there is a chance we stay in the range until energy is gathered and a direction is found. The trend has been higher during recent […]
The US Monthly Budget Statement (Feb) was $-215B v an expected $-216B, against a reading of $49.0B in the prior month. This data represents the balance of the federal government’s income and spending. The February number was the biggest decline in the budget since February of 2014. Seasonally, the February data is lower than other […]
The US Nonfarm Payrolls data released on Friday showed a strong increase in job creation and, combined with the lower than expected increase in Hourly Earnings, sent the markets into risk-on mode. This was a complete reversal of the previous month’s reaction to this data series when positive sentiment evaporated as fears of inflation and […]
Yesterday, US president Trump signed to formalise Steel and Aluminium Tariffs with notable exemptions for Canada and Mexico, subject to NAFTA progress. There were also hints that exemptions would be extended to key allies. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have eased of late, with North and South Korea sending a joint team to the recent […]
The GBPUSD pair has formed a descending wedge pattern, with the top of the pattern at 1.39608, just below the 1.40000 level. This level has seen price consolidate around it since the end of January. Resistance can be found above the pattern at 1.40046, with touches on the trend line at 1.40695 and 1.41443 centred […]
The US Steel and Aluminium Tariffs remain centre stage today, as over 100 Republican Lawmakers signed a letter sent to the President expressing concern about the proposals. The White House is in the process of formalizing the tariffs, with the President expected to sign as early as Thursday evening and the tariffs coming into effect […]
Crude oil prices declined on Wednesday, amid a broad sell-off after the resignation of Gary Cohn, who was the economic adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump. Cohn was a key advocate for free trade in the U.S. government and his departure is escalating concerns that the Trump administration will go ahead with import tariffs and […]
The US index has taken a fall lower with worries over trade tariffs. Today, it is opening with a gap down after the US Chief Economic Advisor to President Trump resigned last night. This raises the risk of a trade war taking place. The price has found support around the 2680.00 area and has a […]
Markets are in risk-off mode this morning, as news broke just after the US market close yesterday that Presidents Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor, Gary Cohn, resigned after a clash with the president due to the implementation of trade tariffs. Cohn was an advocate of free trade and his resignation will dent market confidence in the […]
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 1.50% at its monetary policy meeting. There was little reaction from the Australian Dollar, as the decision was already priced in by the market. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged until early 2019. The RBA stated that the country’s […]
