IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 11/10/2016

Oil rallies as Putin offers his support to limit production • Oil prices rallied amid fresh signals that a deal to limit oil production can be achieved. • WTI initially rose on optimistic comments from the Saudi oil minister, and then surged after Putin said Russia supports a deal. • Even though we do not […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 10/10/2016

US jobs report misses estimates, but doesn’t seem to alter Fed’s plans • US NFP for Sep. came 156k, missing the forecast of 176k. • USD weakened on the news, mainly due to the below-expectations NFP number. • But the probability for a December rate hike actually rose! Fed is still on track for a […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/10/2016

Bottom falls out of GBP as Asian markets open • GBP collapsed (biggest crash since Brexit), but quickly recovered most losses. • A news story about French Pres. Hollande demanding “tough Brexit negotiations”, may have been the initial trigger. • Very thin liquidity conditions (China closed) likely amplified the plunge. • Once the move began, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/10/2016

Strong US PMI data suggest steady economic growth • US ISM non-manuf. PMI for Sep. surged, fueling the dollar rally even further (particularly against JPY). • Focus now turns to tomorrow’s employment data, that could be critical to investors’ expectations for a hike this year. UK PM Theresa May criticizes BoE policy side-effects • Most […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 05/10/2016

Euro jumps on an ECB tapering report • Report said that the ECB is nearing an “informal consensus” to taper its QE program. • EUR skyrocketed on the news. We’d stay cautious of denials by the ECB officials, which may cause EUR to give back the gains. Gold breaks below 1300 and collapses • Gold […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/10/2016

RBA remains on hold and maintains its neutral view • RBA stood pat. The statement was neutral overall, offering little new information. • Reaction in AUD/USD was limited, perhaps due to the lack of forward guidance. • With a neutral stance on policy, we believe that AUD could remain supported. • Next event to determine […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/10/2016

Theresa May says Article 50 will be triggered in March • UK PM May said that the “Brexit” negotiations will officially begin by the end of March. • GBP opened with a gap lower as a result (maybe because investors expected a later date). • Focus now shifts to a speech by Chancellor Hammond today, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 30/09/2016

Concerns over large European banks lead to risk aversion • Worries regarding the health of big European banks led market moves yesterday. • Gold, JPY, CHF and USD all came under buying pressure, while US stocks slid. • We could see this environment of risk aversion continue for a while in the absence of news. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 29/09/2016

OPEC announces a deal is likely in November • OPEC said that it reached an “understanding” for a deal to cut oil production, but did not actually finalize an agreement. • Oil prices and commodity currencies CAD, AUD and NZD surged on the news. • Sentiment may stay supported for a while, but as nothing […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 28/09/2016

Oil producers meeting: Will they reach an accord? • The major oil producers will announce today whether a consensus has been reached. • Headlines from Iran and Saudi Arabia yesterday suggest that a deal is unlikely now. • Oil could come under renewed selling interest on the announcement of “no deal”. Fed Chair Yellen to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 27/09/2016

Clinton takes the first US presidential debate • Hillary Clinton may have won the first debate, at least according to financial markets. • Risky assets rallied (US stock futures, AUD & NZD), while gold and JPY lost ground. • Another clear sign that Clinton won was the rebound in the Mexican peso. • Polls remain […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 26/09/2016

Algiers oil producers meeting kicks off • WTI tumbled on Friday on reports that Saudi and Iran are unlikely to agree on an output freeze. • We remain skeptical that a deal will be reached as well (we could see a repeat of Doha). • Oil is likely to be very sensitive to incoming comments […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 23/09/2016

BoE’s Forbes sees no need for further stimulus • GBP got a short-lived boost on Thurs. after MPC member said that the BoE could upgrade its forecasts. • If remarks from other MPC members echo Forbe’s comments, easing exp. could be scaled back and GBP could strengthen. Today is a PMI day: • France, Germany […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/09/2016

Fed stands pat, signals one hike still likely • The Fed left interest rates unchanged but signalled that near-term risks appear roughly balanced and that the case for a hike has strengthened. • Three officials dissented in favour of a hike, increasing the case for Dec. action. • The Committee decided to wait for further […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 21/09/2016

BoJ abandons monetary base target • BoJ kept negative rate unchanged and said to expand monetary base until inflation above 2%. • The Board decided to modify its policy framework with yield control (10 yr yield to hover around 0). No official base money target. • JPY spiked up initially, but reversed as Nikkei rallied. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 20/09/2016

RBA minutes: No plans to act again anytime soon… • RBA officials noted that recent data suggest economy is growing around estimates of potential. • The current stance of policy is consistent with sustainable growth and achieving inflation targets. • The Board repeated that rising AUD would complicate economic rebalancing. • The relatively more upbeat […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 19/09/2016

Fed and BoJ to dominate the week • The BoJ is exp. to stand pat with rates. We exp. the Bank to disappoint some market expectations for further easing, sending USD/JPY lower. • The Fed is exp. to refrain from hiking rates. Focus will be on the revisions of the “dot plot” as well as […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 16/09/2016

• BoE: Slightly more upbeat but maintains its easing bias • BoE remained on hold by a 9-0 vote and was slightly more upbeat on the economy. • However, it reiterated that if at the Nov. meeting the data are consistent with the Aug. forecasts, then another rate cut is likely. • We thus expect […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 15/09/2016

• BoE to hold its fire, focus to fall on the minutes • The BoE is widely exp. to stand pat today via a unanimous 9-0 vote. • Focus will be on the votes and if in the minutes, the Bank reiterates that further easing is likely (in light of the solid August PMIs). • […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 14/09/2016

• A Nikkei report on the BoJ causes the yen to slide • A report yesterday suggested that the BoJ plans to make negative interest rates the centrepiece of its future easing. • This came as a surprise, following last week’s reports that the BoJ was divided on its policy direction. • USD/JPY rose notably, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 13/09/2016

• Fed’s Brainard pours cold water on a near-term rate hike • Brainard was dovish, emphasizing caution in raising rates too quickly. • US stocks surged and USD tumbled, but the dollar recovered almost immediately to trade virtually unchanged in the aftermath. • USD could trade in a choppy manner until further data shed light […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 09/09/2016

ECB remains on hold and Draghi offers no easing hints • ECB kept its policy unchanged and did not extend the duration of its QE program. • Draghi was neutral and offered no hints regarding further near-term easing. • Thus, EUR/USD traded in a choppy manner within a narrow range during the meeting. It moved […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 08/09/2016

ECB to stand pat, all eyes on Draghi’s press conference • The ECB is not exp. to introduce new stimulus measures today, but it could extend the duration of its QE program. • Focus may be on Draghi’s press conference and the updated economic forecasts. • We exp. downward revisions to GDP projections and Draghi […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/09/2016

US ISM non-manufacturing PMI collapses • US ISM non-manuf. PMI collapsed to 51.4 in Aug., from 55.5 prev. (exp. 55.0). • USD plunged, as this pushed back investors’ expectations for the next hike. BoC is likely to hold its fire, but may shift to a dovish tone • The BoC is exp. to stand pat. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/09/2016

RBA stands pat and maintains a neutral stance • The RBA took the sidelines as expected. Reaction in AUD stayed limited. • AUD could stay driven by risk sentiment, which appears firm for now. WTI spikes higher on Saudi-Russian talks • WTI prices jumped as Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to discuss plans to stabilize […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 05/09/2016

US NFP misses estimates but USD bulls remain in charge • Nonfarm payrolls came 151k in August, missing the forecast of 180k. • Avg. hourly earnings slowed by more than exp., while the unempl. rate remained unchanged. • USD weakened initially but recovered in the following hours as the report was not soft enough to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 02/09/2016

US payrolls: Will they pave the way for a September hike? • NFP for Aug. is exp. 180k vs 255k prev. Unempl. rate to tick down to 4.8% from 4.9%. Avg. hourly earnings are exp. to slow. • Overall, these point to a solid report that may raise the odds for a Sep. hike and […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/09/2016

ADP report signals a healthy pace of jobs growth in August • US ADP employment change came 177k in Aug. from 194k prev., slightly above the forecast of 175k. • This raises speculation that the NFP print may also meet its forecast of 180k. • Something like that could increase bets that the Fed is […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 31/08/2016

Oil drops on reports that Iran plans to boost output • Oil prices fell on Tuesday on reports that Iran plans to boost production much higher than previously anticipated. • This implies that Iran is unlikely to participate in any output freeze in Sept. • This negative sentiment could weigh on prices in the short-term, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 30/08/2016

Overnight: Encouraging data from Japan, but yen remains untouched • Japan’s unempl. rate and household spending, both for Jul, surprised positively. • JPY remained unchanged on the news despite the better-than-expected data. • Even though these data are encouraging, the BoJ is still very likely to ease policy at its Sept. meeting. • Speculation for […]

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