IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 11/01/2017

Trump’s first press conference as US President-elect • First press conference by Trump as President-elect. Scheduled for late European afternoon. • Will be closely watched for any details regarding his fiscal plans (spending, taxes, etc). • Remember, markets have discounted the “Trump effect” without knowing many specifics. • If he does mention anything new, sharp […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 10/01/2017

China’s producer prices rise at fastest pace in 5 years • China’s PPI rate rose notably in Dec., a sign the economy is stabilizing on the inflationary front. • Nevertheless, this could be due to yuan’s depreciation in the month. • AUD and NZD positive in the short run, but depr. yuan may prove negative […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 09/01/2017

Dollar rebounds on solid US employment data • NFP came 156k in Dec. below the forecast of 178k (but November’s figure was revised up!). • The unempl. rate rose as expected, while avg. hourly earnings beat their estimate. • Overall solid data (the Fed closely monitors earnings). USD strengthened as a result. • The short-term […]

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Dukascopy: Politics To Overshadow Economics

The direction of the GBP/NZD depends on China for the NZD and Brexit negotiations once Article 50 is activated for the GBP. Sakis Paraskevov, IronFX Global.

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/01/2017

NFP preview: What to watch out for • US NFP is expected 178k in Dec. Unemployment rate is expected to rise, avg. hourly earnings to increase after falling in Nov. • Despite a potential rise in the unemployment . rate, these point to a strong report overall, which may support USD. • Having said that, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 05/01/2017

FOMC minutes: High uncertainty around the fiscal package • The Fed’s Dec. minutes showed high uncertainty with regards to the economic outlook. • This was mostly linked to the possibility for a future fiscal package, and the lack of details regarding its timing, size and composition. • Importantly, the FOMC also noted that a strong […]

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Dukascopy: Uncertainty To hold Back US Dollar

I think that the more important factor is just general uncertainty, that is going to hold the US dollar from rising further. Oren Klachkin, Oxford Economics Related Posts:GBP/USD trading plan for European session on June 1, 2023.… June 1, 2023 Yesterday there was only one signal to enter the market.…Daily Market Comment – Fed officials […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/01/2017

FOMC December minutes take centre stage • At its last meeting for 2016, Fed hiked rates, upgraded “dot plot”, delivered an upbeat tone. • Yellen said that only few members considered fiscal measures; could we see further upgrades in the rate path projections when all members take them into account? • We will look for […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/01/2017

Dollar begins the year on a strong footing • USD outperformed most of its counterparts on Monday. • January is the best month on the calendar for USD; Average 1.00% gains the past 30 years. • This combined with rising US treasury yields fueled by expectations of higher inflation and thereby faster Fed hikes could […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 30/12/2016

Euro jumps amid thin liquidity conditions • The common currency spiked higher against its major peers in early Asian trading. • No fundamental story behind the move. • Thin liquidity market conditions and perhaps some end-of-year portfolio rebalancing may be behind it. • Considering that liquidity is likely to remain very thin in coming days, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 29/12/2016

BoJ summary of opinions: Cautiously optimistic • At the Dec. meeting, most members were optimistic regarding the Japanese economy. • Most noted that QQE with yield curve control should be maintained to achieve the inflation target. • But one member said that the yield target should be raised a bit. • This could be one […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 28/12/2016

Dow Jones bulls eye the 20000 mark again • US equity indices all finished higher yesterday, amid thin holiday trading. • Dow Jones remains slightly below the 20000 resistance, a level the bulls tried to breach repeatedly in the past month. • Since not even a “hawkish” hike by the Fed was enough to discourage […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 27/12/2016

Japan’s CPIs tread water in November • Japan’s headline CPI rate rose in Nov., but the core rate remained unchanged. • Reaction in JPY was muted, perhaps due to the mixed prints. • Even though these data do not indicate any meaningful improvement in inflation, we believe that the weaker yen could boost the CPI […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary | 22/12/2016

Main points for Today • Riksbank extends QE, but the Board is divided • The Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged and extended the duration of QE by 6 months. • Importantly, 3/6 Board members dissented the decision to extend QE (but it passed as the Governor holds the decisive vote in the event of […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 21/12/2016

Riksbank decision: QE extension on the agenda • The forecast is for the Riksbank to keep its policy rate unchanged. • We share this view, but we expect the Bank to extend the duration of its QE program as well. • Inflation is below the Bank’s own forecasts, so expect a very dovish tone in […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 20/12/2016

BoJ keeps policy unchanged and shifts to a more optimistic tone • The BoJ remained on hold, and shifted to a more upbeat tone regarding Japan’s economy. • But the officials also highlighted many global risks, including China, the US, “Brexit”, and Eurozone’s debt and banking problems. • JPY tumbled on the decision, perhaps due […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 19/12/2016

BoJ’s epilogue for 2016 in focus • Policy decision: Asian morning Tuesday. The forecast is for the Bank to keep its policy unchanged. • Relatively optimistic data and the yen’s collapse are likely to be positive developments for BoJ. • We expect upbeat rhetoric. This could support JPY, but any positive reaction may be short-lived. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 15/12/2016

FOMC delivers a hawkish hike and reignites the USD rally • Fed hiked by 25bps as was expected. Upbeat tone overall with regards to the economy. • “Dot plot” was more hawkish than previous. Added 1 more rate hike in 2017 (3 2017, 3 2018). • USD surged. Given also Yellen’s hawkish remarks, USD could […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 14/12/2016

FOMC: Locked, loaded, and ready to hike • The Fed is widely expected to raise rates today. Market pricing for a 25bps hike= 95%. • Since everyone expects a hike, market action may come from the “dot plot”, the updated economic forecasts and Yellen’s press conference. • For USD to rally notably, the Fed needs […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 13/12/2016

UK’s Hammond offers the latest “soft Brexit” signal • UK Chancellor Hammond said that “Brexit” could take longer to finalize than the two years outlined in Article 50. • A period of adjustment would help UK financial stability, businesses, and a smoother exit. • GBP/USD was already surging ahead of these comments and continued a […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 12/12/2016

Non-OPEC producers reach consensus • WTI prices opened with a large positive gap, after non-OPEC producers finalized a deal to cut their oil output over the weekend. • This shows the determination of major producers to help the oil market rebalance faster. • Given this boost in sentiment, oil prices and CAD could remain supported […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 09/12/2016

ECB decides smaller asset purchases, but for longer • Maintained all three rates unchanged. • Decided to trim monthly purchases to 60bn from 80bn, starting Apr. and continue until Dec., or beyond if needed. EUR spiked up as this was seen as QE tapering. • However, the Council is willing to increase both size and […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 08/12/2016

The ECB takes its turn • Given the recent optimistic Eurozone data, we do not expect any new measures. • We expect the Bank to extend QE, and perhaps tweak some parameters of the program. • Market expectations are along those lines as well; so if met, attention may quickly turn to future policy path […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/12/2016

The central bank torch is passed to the Bank of Canada • Exp. to remain on hold. • Since the last meeting, data came out mixed. Suggest a dovish statement today, if viewed in isolation. • However, the OPEC agreement alongside the surge in oil prices make us believe that the Bank may maintain a […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 06/12/2016

RBA stands pat and maintains its neutral tone • There are reasonable prospects for achieving sustainable growth by keeping rates unchanged. • No clear signs with regards to further easing. • AUD slid somewhat as officials reiterated that rising AUD could complicate economic transition. • New economic data heading into the next meeting may clear […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 05/12/2016

• Italy votes “No” and Renzi quits • Italians voted “no” to constitutional reforms by 60% to 40%. • Renzi announced resignation after the battle was lost. President to form a caretaker gov. • Negative for Italy’s stability and economy. Raises questions for Eurozone’s future. • EUR tumbled to hit 1.0500. Italian and other European […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Marios Hadjikyriacos | 02/12/2016

Politics take center stage again: Italian referendum • Italians will vote on Sunday on a referendum aimed at accelerating reforms and making Italian governments more stable. • A “yes” outcome could prove EUR-positive, and support Eurozone banking stocks. • A “no” vote may negatively impact EUR and bank stocks. Betting odds 78% for No. NFP […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 29/11/2016

Oil prices gain as Iraq pledges to cooperate with OPEC • WTI prices traded in a volatile manner yesterday but finished higher overall. • Prices boosted by Iraq: will cooperate to reach an agreement “acceptable to all”. • Expect more volatility over the next days. Near-term direction of WTI likely to be driven almost entirely […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 28/11/2016

Dollar opens on a weak note • USD opened with negative gaps on Monday and continued to correct even lower. • No fundamental news, so this may be a combination of profit-taking and investors scaling back positions, as the week is filled with risk events. • This correction may continue for a while, but the […]

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