IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 07/03/2016

China lowers growth target • China announced a 6.5%-7% growth range, down from a target of “around” 7% last year. • China will allow bigger deficits and may do further easing to halt the slowdown. US job growth surges but wages fall • NFP surged by 242k in February, but average hourly earnings fell 0.1% […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 04/03/2016

The final US jobs report before the Fed meeting • Nonfarm payrolls are exp. 190k vs prev. 151k, unemployment rate to remain unchanged, average hourly earnings to slow. • ADP report was better than exp. so we could see a positive surprise in NFP as well. • Initial reaction on USD is mainly due to […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 03/03/2016

Asian stocks extend their gains • Most Asian stock markets added to their gains, as global concerns eased a bit. • Risk-on sentiment could remain elevated and demand for safe havens JPY, Gold may lessen. • Pro-risk currencies like AUD and NZD could see some renewed buying interest. Beige Book offers little comfort to Fed […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 02/03/2016

Aussie jumps on upbeat Q4 GDP data • Australian GDP grew by more than expected in Q4. • AUD/USD jumped 50 pips on the news. • Further easing by RBA is now unlikely in the near-term. AUD could continue higher. • Nikkei leads Asian equity rally • Asian stock markets are in the green today, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 01/03/2016

RBA on hold but maintains easing bias • The RBA remained on hold as expected, but reiterated further easing may be needed. • Continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy. • We stay focused on the incoming data that will determine AUD direction (GDP Wed.). Saudi pledges to limit oil volatility • Saudi […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 29/02/2016

G20 meeting: More concerns but no action • The G20 meeting ended with no new coordinated action to spur global growth. • The members simply reiterated past policy commitments and showed little urge to take new bold measures. • On FX rates, they agreed to consult closely the markets and refrain from competitive devaluation. • […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 26/02/2016

G20 meet as global outlook darkens • G20 central bank governors and finance ministers will discuss global growth risks. • May highlight the need for CBs to avoid competitive currency devaluation. • The market is eager to see actions that may boost spending and support growth. • A positive tone is needed to support pro-risk […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 25/02/2016

Fed officials hesitant about further rate hikes • Fed official Bullard said it’s unwise to continue normalization when inflation expectations are declining. • Fed’s Kaplan said he would revise down his expected rate path at the March meeting. • The recent financial stress seems to have shifted Fed’s medium-term rate projections. • March meeting is […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 24/02/2016

Iran is out; oil prices plunge • Iran’s oil minister called the Saudi-Russian oil freeze proposal “ridiculous”. • Oil prices declined after Saudi’s oil minister said that production cuts won’t happen. • We need to see production cuts before oil finds bottom. BoE Carney: referendum premium in GBP • BoE Governor stated that the weakening […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 23/02/2016

BoE Carney may be questioned on Brexit risks • BoE Governor will testify to parliament on monetary policy and the outlook of the UK economy. • Lawmakers are likely to question him about the risks of the EU referendum. • GBP’s reaction will be highly depended on the tone of the comments. Today: • Germany: […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 22/02/2016

Cameron secures EU deal; referendum set for June • UK PM Cameron secured a deal with the EU on Friday. GBP/USD jumped almost 150 pips. • But gave back all the gains at the open Monday after London’s Mayor said he will vote to Leave. • With the referendum set for June, GBP direction may […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 19/02/2016

EU-UK talks: Will there be a deal? • EU summit ends today. The decision may determine UK’s future in the EU. • Deal: GBP may strengthen and referendum is set for as early as June. • No Deal: GBP could weaken as this may imply the UK gets less favorable terms in a future deal. […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 18/02/2016

Fed minutes: FOMC discusses a change in rate path • Officials saw increased risks to the downside amid market turbulence. • They appeared reluctant to raise rates as the impact of the global turmoil was still unclear. • In March, they may indicate fewer rate hikes in 2016 as the uncertainty has increased. Iran says […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 17/02/2016

Oil deal depends on Iran’s cooperation • Oil ministers of Iraq, Iran and Venezuela meet today following the Saudi-Russian agreement to freeze output yesterday. • Iraq appears willing to join in. Iran does not, but may be offered special terms. • An agreement is needed to stabilize oil prices. Fed’s Rosengren reaffirms a slower rate […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Charalambos Pissouros | 16/02/2016

Oil prices jump on surprise Saudi-Russian meeting • Saudi Arabian and Russian energy ministers will meet to discuss oil production. • Saudi has said before it will consider output cuts only if joined by major non-OPEC producers as well. • A potential agreement to cut or freeze production could stabilize a bit the prices. RBNZ […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 15/02/2016

Asian equity markets mostly in the green • Asian equity markets (ex-China) rally curbing demand for safe-haven assets. • This positive sentiment could roll into the EU markets, which may recover some of their recent losses China’s exports and imports continue to fall • China’s exports and imports both fell much more than expected in […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 12/02/2016

RBA Governor plays down financial market turmoil • RBA Gov. Stevens said that financial markets have now chosen to focus on issues that have been there all along. • The RBA is unlikely to raise rates soon. But it may cut some more. Global stocks continue to slide • European, US and Japanese stock markets […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 10/02/2016

Markets await for Yellen’s testimony • Fed Chair Yellen will testify to Congress on monetary policy. • She may keep a balanced stance by acknowledging increased global risks but stress the strength of the US job market. • Any comments in the speech or Q&A session that wipe out surviving hopes for a March hike, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 09/02/2016

Yen skyrockets as Nikkei tumbles • Japanese stock markets plunged overnight, with Nikkei 225 down 5%. • Bank shares are leading the sell-off, as investors concerns about the global slowdown continue to increase. • USD/JPY fell below the psychological 115.00. The risk-off environment could push the rate lower. Today: • Germany: IP and trade balance, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 05/02/2016

BoE unanimously on hold • Policy unchanged, votes shift to 9-0. Inflation Report: Downward revisions in GDP and inflation. • On the positive side, they reiterated that the next move in rates will be a hike. Overnight: RBA upbeat despite global risks • RBA quarterly updated forecasts: GDP growth unchanged, while inflation is exp. a […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 04/02/2016

Bank of England: First Super Thursday of the year • BoE simultaneously releases its meeting decision, meeting minutes, the votes and the quarterly Inflation Report. • With no change in policy expected, focus will be on the Inflation Report and the minutes of the meeting. We expect near-term GDP growth and inflation forecasts to be […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 03/02/2016

RBNZ signals it won’t focus on low headline inflation • RBNZ Gov. Wheeler dampened expectations for further rate cuts, as it would be inappropriate for the Bank to cut rates to offset low oil prices. • But if concerns around the global economy deepen, they may need to ease further. • On top of that, […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 02/02/2016

RBA on hold, but leaves door open • The RBA remained on hold overnight, but signalled there is scope for further easing if needed. • The statement flagged concerns from global risks, but did not revise down the Bank’s forecasts. Fed’s Fischer: Difficult to judge impact of recent turmoil on US economy • Fed’s Vice-Chair […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 01/02/2016

China’s manufacturing continues to shrink • The official and the final Caixin manufacturing PMIs for Jan. showed that the manufacturing sector continues to contract. • Even though Caixin PMI stayed below 50, it increased a bit, which caused AUD and NZD to strengthen somewhat. • These soft data increase the probabilities for further easing by […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 28/01/2016

Fed on hold, ‘monitoring’ global economy • The Fed remained on hold yesterday, while officials noted they are “closely monitoring” global developments. • The FOMC hint of concerns lowered a bit the likelihood for a March rate hike. USD weakened on the news. RBNZ also holds its fire but signals further easing • The Reserve […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 27/01/2016

Fed rate meeting: What to watch • After raising interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in December, the Fed is expected to remain on hold today. • With no press conference and no new projections, all the action will come from the statement accompanying the decision. • The dollar’s reaction will […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 26/01/2016

ECB Draghi: ‘Meeting our objective is about credibility’ • ECB President Draghi vowed not to lower the ECB’s inflation target yesterday, stating that: “Meeting our objective is about credibility. If a central bank sets an objective, it can’t just move the goalposts when it misses it“. • ECB’s President defended the Bank’s current stimulus package […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 25/01/2016

Oil prices edge higher partly due to US blizzard • Oil prices and Asian stock markets began the week on a stronger note, extending gains from Friday, after a blizzard paralyzed much of the US east coast during the weekend. • The rise in oil prices came as a result of investors speculating a rise […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 21/01/2016

Main points for Today ECB meeting preview: Are the latest measures “adequate”? • At their December meeting, the Governing Council cut the deposit facility rate further into the negative territory and extended the QE program for at least another 6 months. • With the latest stimulus package just above a month old, we don’t expect […]

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IronFX Daily Commentary by Sakis Paraskevov | 20/01/2016

Oil plummets below $28 • US crude oil fell to its lowest level since September 2003, on concerns over a global supply flood. • The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global oil supply was set to last and that oil markets could “drown in oversupply”. • On top of that, the recent end of […]

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