The Russian ruble seems to have run out of luck. Yesterday, the currency lost 1.5% against the dollar and 2.5% against the euro, with this drop coming in as a result of several negative factors. The API reported an increase in oil inventories, which may be confirmed later in the day in the official report. […]
EUR received a boost on Tuesday, as data from Destatis showed German Preliminary GDP climbed to 0.8% in Q3, beating forecasts of 0.6%. In addition, Q1 growth was adjusted higher to 0.9% from the previous 0.7%. The recent increase in exports and business investment appears to be the main driver behind the improvement, as consumer […]
China’s economy has been robust throughout 2017 as a continued recovery in manufacturing and industrial sectors, a healthy property market and surprisingly strong exports have helped push growth in the first three quarters close to 6.9%. However, data on Tuesday from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics showing fixed-asset investment growth declined to 7.3%, through […]
Earlier today the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left their Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at a record low of 1.75% – as the markets had forecast. More importantly was the RBNZ revising inflation forecasts upwards, which is likely to signal an increase in interest rates earlier than previously predicted. RBNZ acting Governor Spencer […]
Sterling suffered downward pressure on Tuesday as the latest monthly report from the British Retail Consortium showed non-food sales slumping in October to the lowest levels in 5 years. Total sales crept up 0.2% from a year earlier, like-for-like sales slipped 1%, a reversal from the 1.9% rise in September. British consumers continue to experience […]
Data released on Monday indicates that the Eurozone economy is on target to close out 2017 strongly. The latest Markit composite PMI fell to 56.0 in October, slightly lower than the previous months reading of 56.7, but well above the key 50 zone indicating positive sentiment for growth. PMI data showed the 2 largest economies, […]
Data released on Friday showed US job growth accelerated in October after hurricane-related disruptions in the prior month, but a sharp retreat in average earnings and an increase in the number of people leaving the workforce caused concern on the robustness of the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 261K in October as 106K leisure […]
The U.S. Labour market has demonstrated particular strength. The increase in payroll employment to 261K in October, together with the revision of September data to 18K, marks almost the same increase between the -33K reported last month and the 311K increase expected. In addition, the increase in manufacturing jobs by 24K in October is a […]
In line with market expectations, the Bank of England raised the UK base rate to 0.5% (from 0.25%) on Thursday. The rise, the first in 10 years, was widely expected as the UK has seen inflation well above the Bank of England’s target rate of 2.0% (3.0% in September), with Governor Carney stating “The pace […]
The Bank of England is widely expected to raise UK interest rates for the first time in 10 years today. An expected 0.25% rise, to 0.5%, will push UK interest rates back to pre-Brexit levels. UK inflation climbed to a 5 year high of 2.9% in August, significantly above the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy […]
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan made no changes to its huge monetary stimulus plan even as it reduced its inflation forecasts. The BoJ board voted, 8-1, to maintain the central bank’s yield curve control program and asset purchases. The board kept its view that its 2% inflation target is likely to be met at […]
USD gave up some of its recent gains on news that investigators had charged President Trump’s former campaign manager regarding the investigation of Russian interference in last year’s US Presidential Campaign. Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort and another aide, Rick Gates, were both charged with money laundering on Monday. It was also announced on […]
The US Commerce Department released Q3 GDP data on Friday, showing the US economy expanded at an annual pace of 3%. With the back-to-back Hurricanes during the quarter many had expected Q3 GDP to be lower than the previous, robust, release of 3.1% – consensus forecasts had called for a release of 2.5%. The effects […]
The Thursday meeting of the European Central Bank kept Eurozone interest rates at record low levels, but finally, announced the long-awaited reduction in quantitative easing. The ECB announced that it will halve its current bond purchase program from EUR 60bn to EUR 30bn a month beginning in January. The markets were expecting such an announcement […]
On Wednesday, the UK Office for National Statistics released Gross Domestic Product, that beat expectations, coming in with growth of 0.4% in Q3. Improving by 0.1% on the previous quarter of 0.3%, UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond commented that it showed a “resilient economy which is supporting a record number of people in employment”. The mainstay […]
USD is trading close to a 3-month high against JPY on Wednesday, as rumors circulate that many Republican Senators are favoring John Taylor to become the next Chair of the Federal Reserve. Trump hosted a lunch with Republican Senators on Tuesday to gather their views on their preference for the next Fed Chief. Apparently, Trump […]
The markets are turning their attention to who will become the next Chairperson of the Federal Reserve. President Trump recently commented that he is “very, very close” to deciding who will take the position after interviewing 5 candidates. The 5 shortlisted candidates are current Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who has held the position for the […]
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party has won a resounding, albeit not surprising, victory in Japan’s election on Sunday. The victory will maintain Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future. The markets had been concerned that Abe’s economic policy would have been disrupted if his party did not maintain their “super majority” two-thirds win […]
On Thursday, the US Department of Labor released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 13th that showed a resilient and stable labor market. Initial claims fell 22K to a seasonally adjusted 222K – the lowest since March 1973. The data is now becoming more realistic as the impact of the recent Hurricanes is […]
Yesterday, the markets displayed major signs pointing towards a strong oil growth momentum, including Brent price nearing important resistance level of previous highs, anxiety regarding supplies in the Middle East, the dollar falling against most competitors, while U.S. data revealed a significant fall in crude production by almost 1.5 million barrels per day and a […]
On Wednesday, data released by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) rose 2.1% in August – slightly higher than the 2% forecast. However, in real terms, due to higher inflation, they fell 0.4% on the year before. The swaps market is expecting an 80% chance of a rate […]
The likelihood of a rise in UK interest rates, for the first time in a decade, gained momentum on Tuesday as UK CPI edged up from 2.9% to 3.0% – its highest level since April 2012. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney did nothing to dispel a rate hike as he gave evidence to the […]
On Monday, Iraqi forces moved to take control of the city of Kirkuk that had been under control of a Kurdish faction since 2014 and had recently voted for independence in a referendum with Baghdad objections. Kirkuk is home to over 10% of Iraq’s oil reserves and the “takeover” brought concerns to the markets regarding […]
On Friday, US Consumer Price Index data was released and failed to impress the markets. With US gasoline prices spiking, following the disruption caused by the recent Hurricanes, consumer prices rose the most in eight months to 1.6% in September – coming up short of the forecast of 1.7%. Additionally, annualized inflation missed its forecast […]
Once again, the U.S. consumer inflation data came as disappointing. Yesterday’s strong PPI raised hopes for a strong CPI release today, yet inflation acceleration did not live up to expectations. The total annual inflation rate rose from 1.9% to 2.2%. Against expectations of reaching 1.8% and still below Fed’s target of 2%, the core figure […]
In early Friday trading, the markets are relatively static as they wait, in anticipation, for today’s US inflation data that will potentially give confirmation that the FOMC will hike interest rates in December. According to the latest CME FedWatch tool, there is an 88% probability of a rate hike in December. Thursday’s release of US […]
USD broadly declined as the markets digested the release of last month’s FOMC meeting minutes. Many FOMC Members are still concerned with persistently low inflation, which is perplexing many as the US experiences a strong labour force, low unemployment, an increase in average hourly earnings and falling Jobless Claims, which should create inflationary pressure – […]
With fears abating surrounding the threat of Catalan independence, the EUR moved higher overnight. Catalan President Puigdemont stated that, although the October 1st referendum had given him the mandate to pursue independence, he would “suspend” the result for a period of a few weeks whilst he has discussions with Spain’s Prime Minister Rajoy’s administration. He […]
Those that were hoping the Brexit referendum would allow us to move on must be sorely disappointed. The world and the UK in particular starts the week facing more uncertainty than a week ago. The Prime Minister has announced his resignation, the leader of the opposition’s position is looking ever more precarious and the leaders […]
