The USD is weaker against all the majors today, continuing the pressure from yesterday. End of year liquidity is light and many of the themes from earlier in the month are reversing. The dollar is currently at session lows with the NZDUSD seeing some of the biggest gains, up 0.47% to 0.70910. Swiss UBS Consumption […]
As we trade towards the final days of the year, the market is seeing lighter volume due to the shortened week. The Economic Calendar is light for the days ahead. However there are still data releases and traders are taking positions. US Oil Rig Counts from Baker Hughes was released on Friday evening. The headline […]
The US Commerce Department released GDP data on Thursday that showed economic activity grew lower than expected in Q3. Real GDP rose to 3.2% in the last quarter slightly lower than the previous reading of 3.3%. The Commerce Department commented that the downward revision to the pace of GDP growth primarily reflected slightly slower than […]
On Wednesday, the US Senate approved the tax bill 51 for and 48 against, while the House of Representatives gave it final approval, passing it for the second time in two days after a procedural foul-up forced another vote. The bill passed the House with a vote of 224-201, with no Democrats voting for it […]
The House of Representatives voted on the Tax Bill early Tuesday local time. The Tax Bill was passed by a margin of 24 votes, with 227 Yay and 203 Nay. A procedural issue during the vote means the House has to vote on the Bill a second time, as the Bill passed by the house […]
USD is “treading water” ahead of the expected enactment of President Trump’s tax bill. The initial euphoria of lower corporation tax, that many believed would see a repatriation of USD back into the US has begun to come into doubt. With the bill likely to be passed into law before the end of the year, […]
USD strengthened on reports that the US Tax Bill is moving closer to being ratified. Many top Republicans are confident that Congress will pass the Tax Bill this week. Once the Senate ratifies the bill, which could happen as early Tuesday, President Trump could sign and bring the Bill into law by the end of […]
Thursday saw the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) report from the Bank of England. The BoE stated that “further modest increases” in interest rates are probable, as the Bank tries to bring inflation in line with its 2% target in the coming years. The MPC appeared to be unconcerned with inflation rising to 3.1% last […]
The Federal Reserve, as expected, raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to a range of 1.25% to 1.5%. The latest hike continues the Fed’s gradual move toward higher rates, which were cut to virtually zero during the financial crisis. The latest hike is the 3rd time this year that […]
President Trump suffered a major setback as the once strictly Republican state of Alabama has, for the first time in 25 years, elected a Democrat to the US Senate. Democrat Doug Jones staged a stunning come-from-behind win against GOP Roy Moore in, what many believe, will trigger a political earthquake that will be felt nationally […]
Markets were somewhat lackluster on Monday, and that trend appears set to continue Tuesday as traders await a host of Central Bank meetings starting on Wednesday, with the Federal Reserve expected to hike rates at their last FOMC meeting of 2017. With the markets “pricing-in” a hike of 0.25%, we are likely to see a […]
With no impactful economic data releases on the calendar today, the markets are focusing on a plethora of Central Bank meetings scheduled this week. Wednesday, December 13th at 19:00 GMT will see the US Federal Reserve release its quarterly economic projections and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) release its statement. The markets have been […]
Data released earlier today showed that Chinese trade data beat expectations in November, with strong annual import and export growth as well as a higher trade surplus. Data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed November imports grew, in USD terms, by 17.7% (prev. 17.2%) and November exports grew, in USD terms, to an impressive […]
In an unsurprising move, the Bank of Canada decided to hold its benchmark lending rate at 1%, after two small hikes earlier in 2017. The BoC stated on Wednesday that it has decided to keep its target for the overnight rate right where it is, while rate hikes in July and in September continue to […]
Data released by the US Commerce Department on Tuesday indicated that the US trade gap rose 8.6% in October from $44.9 billion in September, as imports from China and other suppliers hit a record high ahead of the holiday shopping season. Imports hit a record $244.6 billion in October, and exports were unchanged at $195.9 […]
On Monday, the US Commerce Department released Factory Orders data for October, indicating that the continued strength in the Manufacturing sector will help support the growing US economy. With the markets forecasting a drop of 0.4% in October, Factory Goods Orders only dipped 0.1% in the midst of a fall in demand for both civilian […]
This week will be dominated by Geo-Politics as the US Tax Bill needs to be reconciled between the Senate and House, whilst UK Prime Minister May meets Jean-Claude Juncker, the President of the European Commission, Brexit Secretary, David Davis, and his opposite number Michel Barnier, plus, in an all-important oversight role, the President of the […]
On Thursday, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporters) and non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to keep output cuts until the end of 2018. However, they also agreed to a possible early end of the agreement if the market overheats. The markets had already “priced-in” the extension of the agreement past its previous March 2018 end. […]
Data released on Wednesday showed that the US economy expanded at its quickest pace since 2014 in Q3. The US Commerce Department said that GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the July to September period — the highest reading since Q3 2014. The release beat market forecasts of 3.2% growth and was […]
Earlier today, North Korea launched an ICBM that flew higher and further than any previous test firing. The missile was launched from just north of Pyongyang, reaching a height of nearly 3 kilometers and landed 600 miles east, in the Sea of Japan. This latest test firing, 2-months on from the last, is a direct […]
USD continues to languish at 8-week lows against many of its peers, as the markets are concerned over possible delays to the US Tax Reform Plan. Senator John Cornyn, the Senate Republicans’ whip, said on Monday “Hopefully we will get to the floor on Wednesday.” Asked to clarify if he meant the vote to proceed […]
The political instability in Germany improved over the weekend, as the leader of Bavaria’s conservative party endorsed an alliance with Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). With voter pressure and the need to avoid new elections, the SPD has agreed to talk with Chancellor Angela Merkel, which raises the prospect of a new “Grand Coalition” German […]
Data released on Thursday from Markit Economics showed eurozone’s thriving economy powered ahead in November, with new manufacturing orders reaching 17-year highs and a resilient labour market that has shown steady growth. The data suggests that eurozone businesses experienced their best month in almost 7 years, with the main indicators of demand, output, employment and […]
UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond delivered an Autumn Budget that appeared to be somewhat neutral in its content. More sobering was the updated forecast of UK economic growth, which is growing slower than previously thought. Hammond said productivity levels remained “stubbornly flat”, with growth until 2021 expected to be lower than predicted in March. The Office […]
Today sees the release of the UK’s Autumn Budget with the markets believing this financial statement is critical for Prime Minister Theresa Mays’ survival. Following the very narrow victory she had in the recent General Election, this Budget could provide May with an opportunity for redemption from voters. The Prime Minister is treading water as […]
The EUR lost ground against many of its peers on Monday on news that Chancellor Angel Merkel’s efforts to form a coalition government had collapsed, which could result in Germany having to call snap elections. With no viable government coalition, it seems highly likely that Germany will be forced to hold new elections. For the […]
Speaking at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, ECB President Mario Draghi, commented that “although the eurozone economy was robust” recovery was still heavily reliant on stimulus from the European Central Bank. He stated that positive economic growth alone was not enough to allow the ECB to increase the pace of monetary policy normalization. The current […]
Yesterday, the ruble managed to keep resistance levels at 60.50 for USDRUB. During the day, the currency pair lost 0.9%, down to 59.68, as oil fell by 1.3% to $61.10 per barrel (Brent). This could be viewed as a clear sign of the Russian currency’s strength, as its movements occurred alongside a decline in oil […]
The Trump Administration is back in the spotlight with news of a report that Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigators have issued a subpoena to more than 12 officials in the Trump administration election campaign for documents related to Russia. According to the Wall Street Journal; Mueller’s team issued the subpoena in mid-October, requesting documents and […]
The US Labor Department released data on Wednesday showing the consumer price index edged up by 0.1% in October after climbing by 0.5% in September. The modest increase in consumer prices was in line with market expectations. CPI excluding food and energy prices climbed by 0.2% in October after inching up by 0.1% in the […]
