Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/30/20 – 4/3/20 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/30/20 through 4/3/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive …

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TPFG: reassuring FY update from a resilient quality growth stock

(Please note I have a long position in Property Franchise (LON:TPFG))
Remember Brexit? Life seemed so much simpler back then.
To the 2020 stock market investor, robust business models and strong balance sheets reign supreme. Financially sound, high qua…

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Trading the Trend – finding big winners in the next bull market

A few Mello moons ago, in the good old days when we were allowed outside to do various fun activities that are now strictly prohibited, I recall a young chap (I believe his name was Glen Arnold) mentioning that in the 2015 commodities crash, he looked …

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Exploiting Stock Anomaly Value and Momentum [PREMIUM]

Do stock anomaly (factor premium) portfolios exhibit exploitable value and momentum? In their February 2020 paper entitled “Value and Momentum in Anomalies”, Deniz Anginer, Sugata Ray, Nejat Seyhun and Luqi Xu investigate exploitability of …

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Small Cap Value Report (Fri 3 April 2020) – JOUL

Good morning, it’s Paul here, with Friday’s SCVR. Here is the usual 7am placeholder, for reader comments as I write the main report throughout the morningday. Edit at 14:01 – please accept my apologies, I’m running late today. Estimated time of complet…

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Why sector diversification offers extra comfort in uncertain times

Making forecasts about the future direction of shares and markets is hard. Faced with a global pandemic of uncertain proportions, it’s next to impossible. Volatility is sweeping the stock market on a daily basis and it’s anyone’s guess just how far th…

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 2 April 2020) – G4M, BAKK, SAA

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday. Estimated timings – as you might have gathered, I’m still struggling with fatigue, so can only do roughly 2 hour stints of writing, in between resting. It’s currently 13:24, so I’ll do another 2 …

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 2 April 2020) – G4M

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday.Press reports say that a staggering 1 million people in the UK have applied for Universal Credit. I think that’s likely to be the tip of the iceberg, as the policy of economic shutdown starts to b…

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Fever-Tree: trumped up tonics or fledgling global powerhouse?

Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR) is a special brand. It’s not every day you see a single drink power the vast majority of growth in one category for the best part of a decade, but that is exactly what Fever-Tree has done for premium tonics. The group is now…

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Small Cap Value Report (Wed 1 April 2020) – NXR, AIR, CGS, RNWH, TST

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Weds. Estimated timings – I’m a bit more with it today, so should be able to meet the 1pm official finish time. Today’s report is now finished. My apologies for the unreliable timings this week. Looks like…

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Small Cap Value Report (Wed 1 April 2020) – NXR, AIR, CGS, TST

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Weds. Estimated timings – I’m a bit more with it today, so should be able to meet the 1pm official finish time. Looks like we’re in for another rocky day, with futures down heavily overnight. My view (subj…

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Small Cap Value Report (Wed 1 April 2020) – NXR, TST, AIR

Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Weds.
Looks like we’re in for another rocky day, with futures down heavily overnight.  My view (subject to change on a daily basis) remains that I’m sceptical about the strong recent rally.  As company upd…

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SACEMS, SACEVS and Trading Calendar Updates

We have updated monthly allocations and performance data for the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and the Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS). We have also updated performance data for the Combined Value-Momentum Strategy. W…

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Monopsony vs. Monopoly – Estate agents try to gang up on Rightmove

(Please note that I have a long position in Rightmove (LON:RMV))
Have you ever heard of a monopsony? It’s one of those rare words which you might learn for an exam, and then never think about again.
It means a market where there is only one buyer of a …

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Preliminary SACEMS and SACEVS Allocation Updates

The home page, Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) now show preliminary positions for April 2020. SACEMS rankings are unlikely to change by the close. SACEVS allocations are currently sen…

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Small Cap Value Report (Tue 31 Mar 2020) – KAPE, DLAR, QXT

Good morning, it’s Paul here. This is the usual placeholder article, for reader comments from 7am. The full report will be ready by 1pm. Update at 12:48 – I need a bit more time to complete today’s report, so will be working until 4pm today, adding new…

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Impact of Coronavirus-19 on Markets and Economies [PREMIUM]

Economic data arrive too slowly to help investors navigate crises such as the coronavirus-19 outbreak. Are there data that support quick reactions? In their March 2020 paper entitled “Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations&#8…

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SIF Folio review: Market crash puts my rules to the test

I suspect March is a month that none of us will forget in a hurry. I know I won’t. I hope you’re all as safe and well as possible in these difficult circumstances. 
For my rules-based SIF fantasy fund, March has been a very interesting time. As it’s no…

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Small Cap Value Report (Tue 31 Mar 2020) – placeholder

Good morning, it’s Paul here. This is the usual placeholder article, for reader comments from 7am. The full report will be ready by 1pm. The newsflow from coronavirus continues to be appalling. I was deeply disturbed by the actions of the police over t…

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Very Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (VSACEMS) [PREMIUM]

A subscriber requested evaluation of a streamlined version of the Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) that considers only three exchange-traded funds (ETF): SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) iShares iBox…

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Small Cap Value Report (Mon 30 March 2020) – placeholder

Good morning!
The Covid-19 outlook has not improved over the weekend – expectations for the duration of the ‘lockdown’ period are lengthening.
This report won’t be locked down, however. Business as usual here.
At 7.30am, FTSE futures are trading almost…

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Small Cap Value Report (Mon 30 March 2020) – Covid-19, EZJ, PURP

Good morning!
The Covid-19 outlook has not improved over the weekend – expectations for the duration of the ‘lockdown’ period are lengthening.
This report won’t be locked down, however. Business as usual here.
At 7.30am, FTSE futures are trading almost…

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Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 3/23/20 – 3/27/20 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 3/23/20 through 3/27/20. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive…

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Trading the Trend – is this a sucker’s rally?

Two weeks ago, Saudi Arabia and Russia decided they were no longer chums. The result sent shockwaves across the planet. Whilst that sounds dramatic, for many people the drama was real.
An instrument that typically moves a few percent in a day, then has…

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