AUD/USD trading recommendations for 10th June, 2016

AUD/USD reversed right below our stop loss of 0.7500 since our analysis on 8th June, 2016. This forms the head-and-shoulders reversal which is a very strong reversal pattern. Price has just crossed the neckline confirming the move and this lines up well with RSI crossing below its ascending support line. We expect to see a […]

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Japan 10-year bond touches new record low

Japan’s benchmark note lodged a record low of -0.155% in Tokyo, as traders looked at American and European bond markets in which yields slipped on projections over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase and UK’s EU referendum. The 10-year sovereign bond outmatched its previous low of -0.135% touched on April 21. Previously, the note fell […]

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Pound Volatility Peaks for a 6th Week as Brexit Vote Approaches

Assumptions for price volatility in the pound increased for a sixth week towards a seven-year high as concerns about a possible UK exit from the European Union afflict investors. The sterling plunged towards its second weekly decline versus the dollar a few weeks before the Brexit vote, dropping as much as 1.1% early this week […]

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Kuczynski Overcomes Fujimori Near-End of Official Vote Count

Former banker Pedro Pablo Kuczynski maintained his lead by 41,438 votes than Keiko Fujimori in the near-final vote tally in Peru’s presidential election. Kuczynski garnered 50.12% of all tallied votes while Fujimori received 49.88%, making it Peru’s tightest election in almost half a century. Final results are still to be announced by ONPE due to […]

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Bullet Report | USD: Back with a Bang & GOLD/OIL at new Highs

The USD is recovering and is likely to close the week on a strong foot, considering the very important week that is coming ahead. FOMC, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank as well as Bank of England are expected to release policy decisions before the UK referendum on June 23. Today, US is releasing Consumer […]

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ANZ Strategist Sam Tuck Leaves to Join NZ Sovereign Wealth Fund

ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. senior currency strategist Sam Tuck said he is leaving the bank to join the sovereign wealth fund of NZ. The 38-year-old strategist will join the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, Tuck said via instant message. ANZ hired Tuck as a propriety foreign-exchange trader six years ago before joining its research team […]

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Ex Nomura CFO Kashiwagi Named Head of Schroders’s Japan Unit

Asset management company Schroders Plc has hired Shigesuke Kashiwagi, Nomura Holdings Inc.’s former chief financial officer, as head of its Japan unit. In an e-mailed statement, the British company said Kashiwagi, 56, will replace Guy Henriques, and will start on July 1. Nomura, the biggest brokerage in Japan, replaced Kashiwagi when it reshuffled its management […]

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US Congress approves Puerto Rico debt ease legislation

The US House of Representatives authorized a measure, with 297-127 votes, which seeks to aid Puerto Rico in dealing with debt which has greatly affected the island’s economy. The White House pressed the Senate to decide on the legislation rapidly so that President Barack Obama can enact the bill ahead of the debt payment deadline […]

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Asian Stocks Lower, Global Bonds Plunge as Brexit Looms

Asian shares staggered on Friday, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropping 0.2% while Japan’s Nikkei experienced 0.4% decline as investors’ divert their capital into secured assets as a UK exit from EU looms over the global market. Global bond yields descended to new lows with German 10-year bonds hitting a record […]

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Oil Steady on Strong Demand, Supply Disruptions

Oil prices were steady on Friday, as international Brent crude oil futures traded at $51.96 barrel that went up 1% from its previous settlement. U.S. WTI futures were flat at $50.56 per barrel. The stable prices result from the strong overall oil demand and disruptions in global supply. However, crude remained lower than 2016 peaks […]

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Amazon to Pour $3 Billion Investment in India, Wants to Conquer E-Commerce Market

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said that it will beef up its operations in India by investing another $3 billion, putting the company’s entire investment in India at $5 billion. Bezos expressed his bullish outlook on India’s e-commerce market multiple times. The e-commerce giant is now focusing on India after the force of Alibaba Group in […]

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Vodafone Merges With Sky Network NZ, Stronger Force to Compete

As they face revenue and competition woes, Vodafone Group Plc and Sky Network Television Ltd., a New Zealand premium TV channel provider, announced a merger that will yield a company worth $2.4 billion. Sky Network will issue new stocks to Vodafone worth NZ$5.40 which is 21 percent more than the stock’s previous closing price. Vodafone […]

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Denmark Taps Lockheed Martin for New Fighter Jets

Denmark’s defense ministry said on Thursday that the government will purchase 27 F-35 fighter jets from US-based firm Lockheed Martin worth $8 billion for the lifespan of the deal. The announcement came after an expert group created by the government recommended the F-35 aircrafts. The country’s fleet of fighter planes are made up of old […]

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Toyota Could Sue Brexit Campaign for Using Logo in Flyers

Japanese car maker Toyota is planning to lodge a complaint against the heads of the Brexit movement for using its logo in its campaign leaflets without their consent. The company said that the illegal action sends a false message showing their support to the Vote Leave campaign that will see United Kingdom detaching from the […]

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 9, 2016

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets. In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed. Later on May 6, daily candlestick […]

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EUR/NZD analysis for June 09, 2016

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.5912 in a high volume. After the cash rate decision in New Zealand last night the massive supply came in on the market. I found very high volume supply and very strong price action. Buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. According to […]

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 9, 2016

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence a bullish visit to the resistance at 1.4120 (the Fibonacci Expansion 100%) occurred. Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 ( the 141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where […]

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for June 9, 2016

Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470) which allowed further bearish decline to occur. The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March […]

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Gold analysis for June 09 , 2016

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upwards.As I had expected, the price tested the level of $1,266.14 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found changes in the trend dynamic from bullish to bearish. The price went below the 20EMA and I found a supply trend line. Be careful […]

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Confirmation bias – Why believing we’re right can be completely wrong

Here’s a quick test…

Let’s say I offer you this sequence of numbers – 2-4-6 – and ask you to figure out the rule that I used to create it. All you need to do is suggest some more number sequences to see if they fit my rule. I’ll tell you if they do or they don’t.

What might spring to mind – and studies show that it often does – is an obvious answer like 8-10-12. That does fit the rule, but what’s the rule? It seems a sure thing that the rule is something like adding 2 each time, but it isn’t.

You might now be tempted to make various other guesses at upward sequences of numbers trying to figure out what this damn rule actually is.

A much less obvious answer would be something like 5-3-1. It’s almost inevitable that this sequence would never work and so it’s utterly pointless suggesting it. Indeed, it doesn’t fit the rule – but that’s a big clue to the answer.

My rule is is that the sequence is just made up of ascending numbers, whether it’s 1-2-3, 2-4-6 or 57-65-133 – any upward sequence will do.

This test was created in the 1960s by a British…

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Confirmation bias – Why believing we’re right can be completely wrong

Here’s a quick test… Let’s say I offer you this sequence of numbers – 2-4-6 – and ask you to figure out the rule that I used to create it. All you need to do is suggest some more number sequences to see if they fit my rule. I’ll tell you if they do or […]

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 9, 2016

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450. In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570 which had been previously reached in […]

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 09, 2016

Overview: The first support is seen at the price of 0.7053, which represents a daily pivot point on the H4 chart. the NZD/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support level of 0.7053. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish […]

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 09, 2016

Overview: The USD/CHF pair broke support which turned into strong resistance at the level of 0.9637 yesterday. The level of 0.9637 coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 50. But, the RSI is […]

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Exploiting Multiple Stock Factors for Stock Selection [PREMIUM]

How good can factor investing get? In his May 2016 paper entitled “Quantitative Style Investing”, Mike Dickson examines strategies that: Aggregate return forecasting power of four or six theoretically-motivated stock factors (or characteristics) via monthly multivariate regressions. Use inception-to-date simple averages of regression coefficients, starting after the first 60 months and updating annually, to suppress estimation and sampling error. More […]

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ECB’s Villeroy defends low-interest policy in speech to German parliament 

Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau of the European Central Bank defended the low-interest policy of the bank. In his speech to the lower house of parliament of Germany, Villeroy said, “As long as inflation is too low, as is the case today, we need to take action. If we didn’t act we wouldn’t […]

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AstraZeneca sells rights to anaesthetics to South Africa’s Aspen

AstraZeneca on Thursday said it is selling the rights for its portfolio of anaesthetics to South Africa’s Aspen Pharmacare for $520 million as initial payment. The British pharmaceutical company said the deal covers seven established medicines – Diprivan for general anaesthesia, EMLA, a topical anaesthetic, and five local anaesthetics. AstraZeneca will also receive up to […]

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German trade surplus touches new monthly record despite low demand

Trade surplus in Germany reached new monthly record amid dwindling demand from emerging markets such as China. The overall solid trade figures reported by the Federal Statistics Office might ignite a deliberation on how the country’s firm exports are continuing to boost global economic asymmetry. Official data showed imports dropped 0.2% in April, while exports […]

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Draghi asks European governments to help ECB reach inflation goal

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi called on governments to help in bolstering growth and inflation in Europe, reiterating insufficient economic reforms would make their task more difficult. Speaking to policymakers in Brussels, the ECB head stressed the central bank may fail to achieve their 2% inflation target if government policies are not in line […]

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