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Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 5/8/17 – 5/12/17 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/8/17 through 5/12/17. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. More

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Small Cap Value Report (12 May 2017) – FTC, IPX

Happy Friday!I usually talk about profitable rather than unprofitable companies, and it appears that Filtronic (LON:FTC) is currently the former rather than the latter:Filtronic (LON:FTC)Share price: 12.625p (+26%)No. shares: 206.9mMarket cap: &Pound;26mTrading UpdateThis company has been on the receiving end of some well-deserved scepticism on these pages in recent times, as it has a track record of losses and ended up significantly increasing its share count in fiscal 2016.It makes radio frequency, micro-wave and millimetre-wave products for the telecoms and aerospace industries, along with other related products and services (best to take a look at its website!)Excellent Q4 update today:Trading during the fourth quarter of the current
financial year (“FY2017”) in the Filtronic Wireless business has been
ahead of previous management expectations and despite some marginal,
short-term weakness in trading in Filtronic Broadband, the board now
expects total Group revenue of approximately £35 million in the year
ending 31 May 2017, with a commensurate increase to operating profit,
both of which are ahead of market expectations.Checking the company’s H1 report, I see that it made operating profit…

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Small Cap Value Report (12 May 2017) – FTC, IPX, ETO

Happy Friday!I usually talk about profitable rather than unprofitable companies, and Filtronic (LON:FTC) is currently the former rather than the latter:Filtronic (LON:FTC)Share price: 12.625p (+26%)No. shares: 206.9mMarket cap: &Pound;26mTrading UpdateThis company has been on the receiving end of some well-deserved scepticism on these pages in recent times, as it has a track record of losses and ended up significantly increasing its share count in fiscal 2016.It makes radio frequency, micro-wave and millimetre-wave products for the telecoms and aerospace industries, along with other related products and services (best to take a look at its website!)Excellent Q4 update today:Trading during the fourth quarter of the current financial year (“FY2017”) in the Filtronic Wireless business has been ahead of previous management expectations and despite some marginal, short-term weakness in trading in Filtronic Broadband, the board now expects total Group revenue of approximately £35 million in the year ending 31 May 2017, with a commensurate increase to operating profit, both of which are ahead of market expectations.Checking the company’s H1 report, I see that it made…

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Small Cap Value Report (12 May 2017) – FTC, IPX, ETO, TTG

Happy Friday!
I usually talk about profitable rather than unprofitable companies, and Filtronic (LON:FTC) is currently the former rather than the latter:

Filtronic (LON:FTC)
Share price: 12.625p (+26%)No. shares: 206.9mMarket cap: &Pound;26m
Trading Update
This company has been on the receiving end of some well-deserved scepticism on these pages in recent times, as it has a track record of losses and ended up significantly increasing its share count in fiscal 2016.
It makes radio frequency, micro-wave and millimetre-wave products for the telecoms and aerospace industries, along with other related products and services (best to take a look at its website!)
Excellent Q4 update today:
Trading during the fourth quarter of the current financial year (“FY2017”) in the Filtronic Wireless business has been ahead of previous management expectations and despite some marginal, short-term weakness in trading in Filtronic Broadband, the board now expects total Group revenue of approximately £35 million in the year ending 31 May 2017, with a commensurate increase to operating profit, both of which are ahead of market expectations.
Checking the company’s H1 report, I see that it made operating…

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Smart Life Cycle Investing? [PREMIUM]

Can investors improve retirement glide paths via judicious use of smart beta funds? In their March 2017 paper entitled “Life Cycle Investing and Smart Beta Strategies”, Bill Carson, Sara Shores and Nicholas Nefouse augment a conventional equities-bonds life cycle investing glide path with smart beta strategies. They use a conventional glide path, which gradually decreases the allocation to More

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 11 May 2017) – LOOK, FLOW, SAL, PTCM, RBN, ASY, OTB

Good morning, it’s Paul here.
Today I am reporting on the following;
Lookers (LON:LOOK) – another car dealership reporting a positive Q1 performance (boosted by changed in excise duty)
Spaceandpeople (LON:SAL) – shares have soared 45% on a positive trading update
Flowgroup (LON:FLOW) – yet another blue sky company that has dismally failed. Major fundraising announced at just 1.5p.
On The Beach (LON:OTB) – Interim results
Robinson (LON:RBN) – trading update
Andrews Sykes (LON:ASY) – final results
Porta Communications (LON:PTCM) – final results
OnTheBeach (LON:OTB) – interim resultsSo that’s quite a lot of work for me to plough through. I’ll be taking my time, so will be updating this article throughout the afternoon. So (as usual) please refresh this page later for more sections added.

Lookers (LON:LOOK)Share price: 122.5p (up 0.4% today)No. shares: 396.6mMarket cap: &Pound;485.8m

Q1 trading update – covering Jan-Mar 2017.

This is a chain of car dealerships.

These figures look stunningly good. However, as was pointed out yesterday…

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 11 May 2017) – LOOK, FLOW

Good morning, it’s Paul here.Today I intend reporting on the following;Lookers (LON:LOOK) – another car dealership reporting a positive Q1 performance (boosted by changed in excise duty)Spaceandpeople (LON:SAL) – shares have soared 45% on a positive trading updateFlowgroup (LON:FLOW) – yet another blue sky company that has dismally failed. Major fundraising announced at just 1.5p.On The Beach (LON:OTB) – Interim resultsRobinson (LON:RBN) – trading update&Pound;ASY – final resultsPorta Communications (LON:PTCM) – final resultsSo that’s quite a lot of work for me to plough through. I’ll be taking my time, so will be updating this article throughout the afternoon. So (as usual) please refresh this page later for more sections added.Lookers (LON:LOOK)Share price: 122.5p (up 0.4% today)No. shares: 396.6mMarket cap: £485.8mQ1 trading update – covering Jan-Mar 2017.This is a chain of car dealerships.These figures look stunningly good. However, as was pointed out yesterday in an RNS from another car dealer,

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 11 May 2017) – LOOK, FLOW, SAL

Good morning, it’s Paul here.Today I intend reporting on the following;Lookers (LON:LOOK) – another car dealership reporting a positive Q1 performance (boosted by changed in excise duty)Spaceandpeople (LON:SAL) – shares have soared 45% on a positive trading updateFlowgroup (LON:FLOW) – yet another blue sky company that has dismally failed. Major fundraising announced at just 1.5p.Robinson (LON:RBN) – trading update&Pound;ASY – final resultsPorta Communications (LON:PTCM) – final resultsSo that’s quite a lot of work for me to plough through. I’ll be taking my time, so will be updating this article throughout the afternoon. So (as usual) please refresh this page later for more sections added.Lookers (LON:LOOK)Share price: 122.5p (up 0.4% today)No. shares: 396.6mMarket cap: £485.8mQ1 trading update – covering Jan-Mar 2017.This is a chain of car dealerships.These figures look stunningly good. However, as was pointed out yesterday in an RNS from another car dealer,

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 11 May 2017) – LOOK, FLOW, SAL, PTCM

Good morning, it’s Paul here.Today I intend reporting on the following;Lookers (LON:LOOK) – another car dealership reporting a positive Q1 performance (boosted by changed in excise duty)Spaceandpeople (LON:SAL) – shares have soared 45% on a positive trading updateFlowgroup (LON:FLOW) – yet another blue sky company that has dismally failed. Major fundraising announced at just 1.5p.Robinson (LON:RBN) – trading updateAndrews Sykes (LON:ASY) – final resultsPorta Communications (LON:PTCM) – final resultsSo that’s quite a lot of work for me to plough through. I’ll be taking my time, so will be updating this article throughout the afternoon. So (as usual) please refresh this page later for more sections added.Lookers (LON:LOOK)Share price: 122.5p (up 0.4% today)No. shares: 396.6mMarket cap: &Pound;485.8mQ1 trading update – covering Jan-Mar 2017.This is a chain of car dealerships.These figures look stunningly good. However, as was pointed out yesterday in an RNS from another car dealer,…

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Improving the Magic Formula [PREMIUM]

What’s the best way to combine profitability and value in screening stocks? In their April 2017 paper entitled “The Magic Formula: Value, Profitability, and the Cross Section of Global Stock Returns”, Douglas Blackburn and Nusret Cakici compare performances of a portfolio based on the Magic Formula (MF) and a portfolio based on an Improved Magic Formula More

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Small Cap Value Report (10 May 2017) – VTU

Good morning, Paul here.Apology to WargamersSomething really strange has happened on Twitter over the last couple of days. My account started to be bombarded with pictures of happy people on their wedding days. Most of the pictures were very nice, but I had no idea why they were being sent to me.Anyway, it turns out that someone decided to stir up a Twitter storm, by copying some daft, tongue-in-cheek comment that I’d made here describing customers of Games Workshop (LON:GAW) as nerds who never get married! Now obviously, readers of my blog would understand that I often throw a daft aside into my commentary, just to raise a smile and lighten the mood a little. Also, there was a bit of irony involved, as I’ve never got married myself! Poking fun at myself, and others, is what I do sometimes. However, in text form, the intention can sometimes be misunderstood by others. So I should have chosen my words more carefully – a good learning point for me.Taken out of context though, and copied to Twitter into a group reinforcing situation, I can see how people would take umbrage. Therefore I think the decent thing…

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Small Cap Value Report (10 May 2017) – VTU, MBH

Good morning, Paul here.Please note that I added a section on Treatt (LON:TET) (in which I hold a long position) interim results to yesterday’s report, which is here.Apology to WargamersSomething really strange has happened on Twitter over the last couple of days. My account started to be bombarded with pictures of happy people on their wedding days. Most of the pictures were very nice, but I had no idea why they were being sent to me.Anyway, it turns out that someone decided to stir up a Twitter storm, by copying some daft, tongue-in-cheek comment that I’d made here describing customers of Games Workshop (LON:GAW) as nerds who never get married! Now obviously, readers of my blog would understand that I often throw a daft aside into my commentary, just to raise a smile and lighten the mood a little. Also, there was a bit of irony involved, as I’ve never got married myself! Poking fun at myself, and others, is what I do sometimes. However, in text form, the intention can sometimes be misunderstood by others. So I should have chosen my words more carefully -…

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Small Cap Value Report (10 May 2017) – VTU, MBH, W7L

Good morning, Paul here.Please note that I added a section on Treatt (LON:TET) (in which I hold a long position) interim results to yesterday’s report, which is here.Apology to WargamersSomething really strange has happened on Twitter over the last couple of days. My account started to be bombarded with pictures of happy people on their wedding days. Most of the pictures were very nice, but I had no idea why they were being sent to me.Anyway, it turns out that someone decided to stir up a Twitter storm, by copying some daft, tongue-in-cheek comment that I’d made here (in Jan 2014) describing customers of Games Workshop (LON:GAW) as nerds who never get married! Now obviously, readers of my blog would understand that I often throw a daft aside into my commentary, just to raise a smile and lighten the mood a little. Also, there was a bit of irony involved, as I’ve never got married myself! Poking fun at myself, and others, is what I do sometimes. However, in text form, the intention can sometimes be misunderstood by others. So I should have chosen my words…

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Small Cap Value Report (10 May 2017) – GAW, VTU, MBH, W7L, Wargamers apology

Good morning, Paul here.Please note that I added a section on Treatt (LON:TET) (in which I hold a long position) interim results to yesterday’s report, which is here.Apology to WargamersSomething really strange has happened on Twitter over the last couple of days. My account started to be bombarded with pictures of happy people on their wedding days. Most of the pictures were very nice, but I had no idea why they were being sent to me.Anyway, it turns out that someone decided to stir up a Twitter storm, by copying some daft, tongue-in-cheek comment that I’d made here (in Jan 2014) describing customers of Games Workshop (LON:GAW) as nerds who never get married!Now obviously, readers of my blog would understand that I often throw a daft aside into my commentary, just to raise a smile and lighten the mood a little. Also, there was a bit of irony involved, as I’ve never got married myself! Poking fun at myself, and others, is what I do sometimes. However, in text form, the intention can sometimes be misunderstood by others. So I should have chosen my words more…

Stock Trkr
Currency and Cryptocurrency Exchange Rate Momentum Tests [PREMIUM]

How well do time series (intrinsic) and cross-sectional (relative) momentum work for different types of currency exchange rates? In their April 2017 paper entitled “Momentum in Traditional and Cryptocurrencies Made Simple”, Janick Rohrbach, Silvan Suremann and Joerg Osterrieder compare the effectiveness of time series and cross-sectional momentum as applied to three groups of currency exchange rates: G10 currencies; More

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Super Stock Rio Tinto could be cheap after recent falls

Big cap mining stocks have been among the biggest fallers in the FTS 350 so far this year. That’s not entirely surprising after last year’s gains, which saw the value of FTSE 100 giants Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton double in twelve months. Smaller companies delivered even bigger gains.Some reaction was always likely, especially as the first part of the year has also seen the price of iron ore and coal fall. However, the big miners remain among the top-ranked stocks in the Stockopedia universe. Rio Tinto is a case in point. With a StockRank of 98, Stockopedia’s new rating system classifies it as Adventurous and a Super Stock.If you haven’t already checked out Stockopedia’s excellent new rating system, then I recommend you do now. There are two parts to the new classifications — the RiskRatings (e.g. Adventurous) and the StockRank Styles (e.g. Super Stock).Super Stocks are statistically most likely to outperform, according to Stockopedia’s historic data:Adventurous stocks also tend to do well:So in my view, it’s worth paying attention when a stock ranks this highly and…

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How Contrarian investors cashed in on the hidden appeal of Waterman

A takeover bid for the engineering consultancy Waterman saw the price of its shares leap today. At 140p-per-share, the agreed cash deal with Japan’s CTI Engineering represented an 85% premium on Waterman’s previous price.
While the deal is yet to be sealed (and there is always a risk it may fail), this development ought to be of interest to onlooking investors. That’s because it comes against the recent run of play for Waterman, whose shares have been generally out of favour and drifting for several months. It begs the question of whether this turn of events could have been predicted…
Since last summer, the market mood has been very much ‘risk on’ towards profitable, growing, small-caps like Waterman. Yet this micro-cap – valued at just &Pound;23 million before today’s price rise – failed to ride that wave despite having some appealing features.
Of course, it’s very easy to look for all the plus points after the unpredictable arrival of a takeover bid. But the fact is that for more than a year prior to last autumn, Waterman had one of the strongest combinations of high quality, appealing value and positive momentum in the market.
It was only when its momentum began to…

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Sources of Trend-following Profitability [PREMIUM]

What makes trend-following tick? In the April 2017 version of his paper entitled “What Drives Trend-Following Profits?”, Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu investigates sources of trend-following profits in equity indexes and stocks. He focuses on daily trading signals for DOW Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closing levels, as follows: Each day after the close, he compares the DJIA close More

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Small Cap Value Report (9 May 2017) – G4M, TET, WTM

Good morning! It’s Paul here.Today’s report will be a quick early post, which I’m doing now. Then more detail added later, this afternoon. The reason for this is because I’m heading into central London in a moment, to attend the G4M analyst meeting. So I’ll report back to you about that later. Please note that G4M is my 2nd largest personal long position – so clearly I am biased in favour of the company, or I wouldn’t have bought so many shares in it!Waterman (LON:WTM) – congratulations to holders here, as a recommended 140p cash offer has just been announced. It’s a share I’ve covered extensively before, so nice to see a decent outcome for shareholders. It’s interesting to see that the bidder is Japanese. I seem to recall that another Japanese company bid for some other UK building consultancy company, but can’t remember the name. If any readers can recall that, maybe you could drop a comment in below this article?Gear4Music (LON:G4M)Share price: 620p (up 3.7% at 11:15 – likely to be volatile today)No. shares: 20.2mMarket cap: &Pound;125.2m(at the time of writing, I have a long position…

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Small Cap Value Report (8 May 2017) – ECK

Good morning and welcome back!Eckoh (LON:ECK)Share price:44p (+8%)No. shares: 244.3mMarket cap: &Pound;107mTrading UpdateThere is some great coverage by Paul in the archives, if you want to read back through the recent history of this company, which provides call centre solutions and secure payment technologies for businesses.In summary: it was highly rated, but had a problem in a non-core division, which set back expected growth for the year ending March 2017.Since then (last September), it has been on a gradual recovery track, and today’s update has further soothed investor worries:The Board of the Company confirms that trading for the
year ended 31 March 2017 was comfortably in line with market
expectations, with revenue and margin growing by over 20% for the fourth
year in succession. The Company continues to make good progress in the
UK, and the Group’s operations in the United States have produced a
record year in terms of revenues and order book; as a consequence
US-derived revenues will again represent a growing proportion of total
Group revenues.”Comfortably in line” presumably means at the upper end of the range of expectations (otherwise…

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Small Cap Value Report (8 May 2017) – ECK, Alfa, PFD

Good morning and welcome back!Eckoh (LON:ECK)Share price:44p (+8%)No. shares: 244.3mMarket cap: &Pound;107mTrading UpdateThere is some great coverage by Paul in the archives, if you want to read back through the recent history of this company, which provides call centre solutions and secure payment technologies for businesses.In summary: it was highly rated, but had a problem in a non-core division, which set back expected growth for the year ending March 2017.Since then (last September), it has been on a gradual recovery track, and today’s update has further soothed investor worries:The Board of the Company confirms that trading for the
year ended 31 March 2017 was comfortably in line with market
expectations, with revenue and margin growing by over 20% for the fourth
year in succession. The Company continues to make good progress in the
UK, and the Group’s operations in the United States have produced a
record year in terms of revenues and order book; as a consequence
US-derived revenues will again represent a growing proportion of total
Group revenues.”Comfortably in line” presumably means at the upper end of the range of expectations (otherwise…

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Small Cap Value Report (8 May 2017) – ECK, Alfa, PFD, NUM

Good morning and welcome back!Eckoh (LON:ECK)Share price:44p (+8%)No. shares: 244.3mMarket cap: &Pound;107mTrading UpdateThere is some great coverage by Paul in the archives, if you want to read back through the recent history of this company, which provides call centre solutions and secure payment technologies for businesses.In summary: it was highly rated, but had a problem in a non-core division, which set back expected growth for the year ending March 2017.Since then (last September), it has been on a gradual recovery track, and today’s update has further soothed investor worries:The Board of the Company confirms that trading for the
year ended 31 March 2017 was comfortably in line with market
expectations, with revenue and margin growing by over 20% for the fourth
year in succession. The Company continues to make good progress in the
UK, and the Group’s operations in the United States have produced a
record year in terms of revenues and order book; as a consequence
US-derived revenues will again represent a growing proportion of total
Group revenues.”Comfortably in line” presumably means at the upper end of the range of expectations (otherwise…

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Expert Estimates of 2017 Country Equity Risk Premiums and Risk-free Rates [PREMIUM]

What are current estimates of equity risk premiums (ERP) and risk-free rates around the world? In their April 2017 paper entitled “Discount Rate (Risk-Free Rate and Market Risk Premium) Used for 41 Countries in 2017: A Survey”, Pablo Fernandez, Vitaly Pershin and Isabel Acin summarize results of a March 2017 email survey of international finance/economic More

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Technical Analysis (Part 5): Point and Figure Charts

Last week in Part 4, we looked at candlestick charts. This week, we look at one of the oldest charting methods popularised in the West: Point and Figure charts. To some, Point and Figure charts look like a glorified game of noughts and crosses! To others they simply make no sense or serve no purpose. Unfortunately, the interest in Point and Figure charts is on the wane, which is a shame because  if you dug a little deeper, they can be a highly effective charting approach that you could use for your trading and investing. They can offer flexibility and a different perspective on price action.Point and Figure historyThis style of charting has been around since the 1880’s and pre-dates the bar chart. It started as a tick by tick charting system developed out of a practical need to record market prices on the go. Traders developed an efficient system to record prices, taking out previous very tedious methods of recording. Its beginnings were in a system that plotted price points between a set range and when the price points hit the range, the number was illustrated. This is where this method of charting gets its name…

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Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 5/1/17 – 5/5/17 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 5/1/17 through 5/5/17. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. More

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“Sell in May” Over the Long Run

Does the conventional wisdom to “Sell in May” (and “Buy in November”, hence also the term “Halloween Effect”) work over the long run, perhaps due to biological/psychological effects of seasons (Seasonal Affective Disorder)? To check, we turn to the long run dataset of Robert Shiller. This data set includes monthly levels of the S&P Composite More

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Small Cap Value Report (5 May 2017) – RCN, CTO

Good morning!Redcentric (LON:RCN)Share price:89.75p (+3%)No. shares: 148.9mMarket cap: &Pound;134mTrading StatementFor my previous (beaish) analysis of Redcentric, see the 23rd Dec SCVR at this link.At the time, I had the impression the company had responded professionally to the discovery of accounting errors including the overstatement of historic profits and understatement of net debt.But I still thought the episode raised such fundamental questions that I would have marked the shares down even lower than they were.Today’s trading statement for the year ending March 2017 says performance was in line with expectations, with “good sales momentum”.There was no evidence of theft in the accounting fiasco, and customers are apparently still happy, so it seems as if the effect of the errors was limited to giving shareholders a false impression of profitability.Net debt reduces to £39.5 million from £42 million, and the banks have played ball: Our lending banks have remained supportive over recent
months and the Company is pleased to announce that amended debt
facilities are now in place. Waivers in relation to historic covenant
breaches have been secured such that the Company is…

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Small Cap Value Report (5 May 2017) – RCN, CTO, FST

Good morning!Redcentric (LON:RCN)Share price:89.75p (+3%)No. shares: 148.9mMarket cap: &Pound;134mTrading StatementFor my previous (bearish) analysis of Redcentric, see the 23rd Dec SCVR at this link.At the time, I had the impression the company had responded professionally to the discovery of accounting errors including the overstatement of historic profits and understatement of net debt.But I still thought the episode raised such fundamental questions that I would have marked the shares down even lower than they were.Today’s trading statement for the year ending March 2017 says performance was in line with expectations, with “good sales momentum”.There was no evidence of theft in the accounting fiasco, and customers are apparently still happy, so it seems as if the effect of the errors was limited to giving shareholders a false impression of profitability.Net debt reduces to £39.5 million from £42 million, and the banks have played ball: Our lending banks have remained supportive over recent
months and the Company is pleased to announce that amended debt
facilities are now in place. Waivers in relation to historic covenant
breaches have been secured such that the Company is…

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Small Cap Value Report (5 May 2017) – RCN

Good morning!Redcentric (LON:RCN)Share price:89.75p (+3%)No. shares: 148.9mMarket cap: &Pound;134mTrading StatementFor my previous (beaish) analysis of Redcentric, see the 23rd Dec SCVR at this link.At the time, I had the impression the company had responded professionally to the discovery of accounting errors including the overstatement of historic profits and understatement of net debt.But I still thought the episode raised such fundamental questions about the company that I would have marked the shares down even lower than they were.Today’s trading statement for the year ending March 2017 says performance was in line with expectations, with “good sales momentum”.There was no evidence of theft in the accounting fiasco, and customers are apparently still happy, so it seems as if the effect of the errors was limited to giving shareholders a false impression of the company’s profitability.Net debt reduces to £39.5 million from £42 million, and the banks have played ball:
Our lending banks have remained supportive over recent
months and the Company is pleased to announce that amended debt
facilities are now in place. Waivers in relation to historic covenant
breaches have been secured such…

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Small Cap Value Report (Thu 4 May 2017) – TUNE, TNI,

Good morning!Webinar at 1pm today (4 May)Last call for Ed’s webinar today at 1pm. It should be very interesting, as Ed will be unveiling some new features on Stockopedia. As mentioned yesterday, I’ve had a preview, and very much like the new classifications system. It will be fun to see how the site rates my shareholdings. I think this feature will be much talked-about, and is set to ruffle some feathers too!So do sign up – here is the link.Focusrite (LON:TUNE)I covered this share in yesterday’s report. I see it has risen by a further 7% today, on top of yesterday’s rise. This reminded me of a term in the excellent Mark Minervini book, which he called something like “post announcement drift”.This is where a company puts out a highly significant piece of news (e.g. strong out-performance, or a big profit warning). What often happens is that the initial first day move is just the beginning of a much bigger move. This is particularly the case with small caps – because lack of liquidity means that buyers amp; sellers cannot be immediately satisfied. Therefore buyers/sellers tend to continue…

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