Good morning, it’s Paul here, with the placeholder for today’s SCVR. Please add your comments in the usual way, and the main report should be finished by 1pm today, depending on how much news there is. Edit: predictably, I’m running late, so will finish at 3pm. Today’s report is now finished. In case you haven’t seen it, Jack has published an interesting article here: Multi-bag or bust? RTN, MAB, RBG, and OTB. OBR coronavirus reference scenario This document published by the Office for Budget Responsibility has understandably caused a furore. It’s a forecast of what impact coronavirus might have on the economy. Being sensible people, they are not calling it a forecast, but instead a “reference scenario”. Economic forecasting is widely discredited, because people repeatedly try to forecast, repeatedly get it (often wildly) wrong, but continue pretending that they actually can forecast the future with any accuracy, when they cannot. Former Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, has written persuasively about this, urging economists and pundits to stop pretending that they can forecast the economy, because they can’t. There’s a terrific book on this called “Super-forecasting: the art and science of prediction”….
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