Good morning, it’s Paul here, with the placeholder to start off with at 7am. It’s anybody’s guess what happens next, in this bizarre new world we live in. Probably like most people, I’m trying to figure out what the hell happens next? When not sure, I just try to do a base case, then an upside amp; a downside scenario. In my head, it goes something like this; Base case – short term economic shutdown, the like of which has never been seen before. Unknown outcome, but recovery at some point (unknown timing).Downside scenario – CV19 might recur, or linger, or worsen, leading to unknown economic disasterUpside scenario – CV19 peaks, then recedes, and economic activity resumes in the next few weeks. We need to know which of the above it will be, in order to value shares. Therefore, it’s just guesswork right now. Personally, I remember thinking to myself in Torremolinos in early Feb 2020, that this looked really bad, and hedging, only to be almost wiped out by a whippy movement in the indices. Since then, it gives me no pleasure whatsoever to say that my hedges protected me very well, and have provided lots of fresh cash…
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