Good morning!
Graham here.
Viral thoughts
As you’ve probably noticed, markets are looking much more perky now, compared to three weeks ago.
Versus the recent lows:
The Samp;P 500 is up about 25%.The FTSE-100 is up about 21%The Euro Stoxx 50 is up about 24%(All indices measured in their own currencies.)
(Source:Stockopedia.)
Anecdotally, I am still seeing a lot of scepticism about these gains from commentators on Twitter and elsewhere.
As I said last week, the duration of “lockdown” measures is the most important unknown in the short-term, since many companies are closed for business until these lockdown measures are removed.
This is a truly unknowable variable – lockdown will only be ended when the combined weight of medical evidence and public opinion convinces national governments that it is feasible to make a change.
The data
I continue to check Worldometer for daily charts of coronavirus progression. The underlying data quality remains extremely poor, but these are the headline numbers which influence public opinion, so I think they’re important.
Itay has seen a steady decline in numbers dying with the virus in recent weeks:
New cases are falling too:
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