Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday. (As usual, this is initially a placeholder post, for readers to add your comments from 7am, as I write the article section by section throughout the morning/afternoon. We aim to get most of the report done by 1pm.) Estimated completion time today – 4pm (as I don’t have anything else on today, I’ll spend most of the day on this) My thinking on coronavirus has, if anything become even more bearish. I’ve been watching quite a lot of CNBC this week, for views from across the pond. It strikes me that financial people seem incredibly complacent about the impending pandemic of coronavirus. One commentator even said he thought this could all be over (as in no longer an issue) in a fortnight! When you think through the consequences, of even a few months disruption, it’s actually very serious. Lots of smaller businesses could fold, contract wins could be delayed or cancelled in many sectors, and the inevitable cost-cutting would result in higher unemployment, hence weaker consumer spending, hence recession. I think it’s a big mistake to imagine this as a short term blip. Once things start to snowball downhill in…
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