Good morning, it’s Paul here with the SCVR for Thursday.Press reports say that a staggering 1 million people in the UK have applied for Universal Credit. I think that’s likely to be the tip of the iceberg, as the policy of economic shutdown starts to bite. We’re therefore heading for a severe recession. Investors have to decide whether we think this is likely to a V-shaped recession – i.e. short amp; sharp with a rapid recovery, or something more serious amp; extended. At this stage, I haven’t made up my mind what is more likely. That is one of several factors which makes it so difficult to assess individual shares at the moment. I’m still leaning towards caution, and am generally holding back from buying most things on my watch list, until we have some more clarity.
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