It feels as though today’s markets bring more downside risk than upside. A gloomy note to start on, but it’s hard to argue against when you look at some of the facts. Depending on how you define it, we are thirteen years into a bull run. Most last for around eight years. This bull run has been supported by a kind of financial alchemy that up until recently some academics did not even think was theoretically possible (coincidentally, the acronyms for these monetary policies sound like the villains in a bad sci-fi film: ZIRP, NIRP, and QE). Historically low (and even negative) interest rates have inflated financial assets. Unprecedented levels of QE (bond-buying) programmes across some of the largest global economies have also contributed to an artificially favourable environment for these financial assets. Meanwhile, the political situation is unsteady. China and the US continue to throw tariffs at each other, like warring pupils on either side of an unruly classroom – and the rest of the class isn’t behaving much better. Germany’s growth is stalling, as is the UK’s. Around the Eurozone, upstart political parties are staking a claim and threatening to change the complexion of politics across the…

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