Why Gold Could Soar Another 353%

By Justin Spittler

Gold is on the rise again. It’s climbed for two straight weeks, and it’s now up nearly 5% since December 15. Many precious metals investors couldn’t be happier about this. You see, gold stormed out of the gate last year. It had its strongest first quarter since 1986. By the end of June, it had risen 25%. Things were looking up. Then, the market changed course. Gold plunged 18% in just four months. Last month, it hit its lowest level since last February.

• The sharp pullback spooked precious metals investors….
But regular Dispatch readers knew that gold would rebound. After such an explosive start to 2016, it was only natural for gold to “take a breather.” We urged you to not lose sight of the big picture. As we often remind you, gold’s a safe-haven asset. Investors buy it when they’re worried about the economy, financial system, or politics. And right now, investors have plenty of reasons to be worried, even if some are still enjoying the “Trump Honeymoon” phase.

• Louis James thinks gold will keep rising….
Louis is our chief resource expert. He is the editor of International Speculator and Casey Resource Investor, our advisories dedicated to resource stocks with big upside. According to Louis, gold has struggled recently because investors expect interest rates to rise. They have good reason to think this, too. After all, the Federal Reserve just raised its key interest rate… but for only the second time since 2006. It also said that it plans to lift rates three more times this year. Conventional wisdom tells us that this is bad for gold. Since gold doesn’t pay interest like a bond, most investors don’t want to own it when rates are rising or are likely to rise.

• According to Louis, the market has already “priced in” higher interest rates….
This means gold shouldn’t fall if the Fed sticks to its plan and raises rates three more times this year. Of course, that’s a big “if.” Heading into last year, the Fed said it wanted to raise rates four times. But it only raised rates once last year, and it waited until the eleventh hour to pull the trigger. We wouldn’t be surprised if the Fed sits on its hands again. If that happens, investors will know something is very wrong with the economy. Many folks will start buying gold hand over fist.

• But that’s not the only reason Louis is bullish on gold.…
Last week, he gave his subscribers several reasons why gold should keep rising:

➢ Rumors of new gold curbs in India have not panned out.
➢ Fear of the fall of New Rome [the EU] is driving Europeans into [U.S.] dollars and gold.
➢ The escalation of the “other” Cold War with China increases uncertainty in global markets.
➢ Even Trump’s best ideas (cuts in taxes and regulations) will cause disruptions that will have to work through the economy before things can improve.

• Gold is incredibly cheap, too.…
Louis explains:

Gold needs to rise another US$900 or so to hit a new inflation-adjusted high. Given the trillions and trillions of new dollars, euros, yen, yuan, and so forth printed over the last 45 years, it should do much more than that.

Right now, gold is trading for about $1,180. In other words, it would have to climb about 75% to reach its previous inflation-adjusted high.
But Louis thinks gold could race well past that in the coming years:

Many analysts see the current market as analogous to the great gold bull of the 1970s, only bigger and longer. Adjusted for inflation, gold rose about 353% from its mid-1970s trough to its 1980 peak. If that pattern repeats itself, gold would have to rise from its December 2015 low to just above US$5,200 per ounce by October 2022.

If gold does anything close to what it did during the ’70s, precious metals investors could see explosive gains in the very near future. Just take a look at the chart below.



• Louis is so convinced that gold’s headed higher, he just made a giant bet on it…

He wrote last week:

I’m so sure, I put my money where my mouth is last week. As advised last month, I entered the market during the peak of Tax Loss Season. I’m not allowed to buy the same stocks I recommend (to avoid possible conflicts of interest), so I bought ETFs instead. In fact, I put about twice as much of my own cash into these proxies for gold stocks than I ever put into gold stocks before.

Louis also plans to buy more gold at the first chance he gets:

I think that 2016 was an overture for what’s ahead. I intend to profit from it. And I’m not worried about any fluctuations in the near term. If prices drop, I’ll hope to buy more. If prices rise, it’s off to the races.

• You, too, can make huge profits from rising gold prices.…
The key is to buy gold mining stocks. Gold miners are leveraged to the price of gold. This means gold doesn’t have to rise much for them to take off. During the 2000–2003 gold bull market, the average gold stock gained 602%. The best ones soared 1,000% or more. Of course, not every gold company is a winner. In fact, many gold stocks are total duds. That’s because gold mining is an incredibly difficult business. To protect your capital and make monster gains, you have to own the right gold stocks. Unfortunately, most folks have no clue what to look for in a gold stock.

That’s where we can help.…

You see, Louis is a true industry insider. He’s visited mining projects all around the world. He’s on a first name basis with many of the world’s top mining CEOs. And he understands the geology inside and out. Louis also has a proprietary system for finding the best gold stocks. Casey Research founder Doug Casey actually taught Louis this system… after he spent decades perfecting it.

You can learn more about Louis’ system by clicking here. As you’ll see, it’s delivered giant gains over and over again. Just don’t wait too long. Gold probably won’t stay cheap for much longer… meaning you’ll want to take action soon to have a shot at truly life changing gains. Click here to learn more.

Chart of the Day

Gold stocks are dirt cheap, too.

Today’s chart compares the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which tracks large gold stocks, with the price of gold. The lower the ratio, the cheaper gold stocks are relative to gold. According to this ratio, gold stocks are cheaper today than they ever were during the dot com bubble. They’re also cheaper than they ever were during the last housing bubble.

Keep in mind, stocks were trading near record highs during these periods. Most investors were extremely bullish. They owned too many mainstream stocks and not enough gold stocks. Right now, this key ratio is lower than it was during either period. This tells us that today could be one of the best times to buy gold stocks since the turn of the century.

If you would like to add gold stocks to your portfolio, we encourage you to sign up for International Speculator. As we said earlier, this is our publication dedicated to gold stocks with the most upside. 

Click here to begin your risk-free trial.

The article Why Gold Could Soar Another 353% was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Five Easy Ways to Make Your Finances Less Fragile

By Justin Spittler

A few days ago, we sat down with E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, to talk shop. The conversation was so good, we just had to share it with you. In the following interview, E.B. talks about how he manages his own money. As you’ll see, he has a unique, yet intuitive approach to investing, especially when it comes to asset allocation. We hope you find this conversation as useful as we did. Also, make sure you read until the end to learn about one of E.B.’s top speculations.


Justin Spittler: I want to talk investment strategy. Could you tell us how you manage your own money?

E.B. Tucker: I like to break up my investments into buckets. I have about five of them. I have one for gold, one for permanent life insurance, one for real estate, and two for stocks. I don’t limit myself to a certain number of buckets. But I’ve had very good results looking at asset allocation this way.

J.S.: Can you tell us a little more about your “buckets”? Why do you break them up this way? What kind of assets go into each?

E.B.: First of all, the buckets change with life and market conditions. For example, I put most of my capital into a real estate bucket in 2009–2010. As you know, the U.S. housing market had just crashed. If you had the capital, you could buy some houses for next to nothing. And that’s exactly what I did.…

During that period, I bought six single-family homes. I bought one of them for just $10 per square foot. I spent another $10 per square foot fixing the place up, so I put about $20 per square foot all in. The guy before me paid $160 per square foot and ended up in foreclosure. He bought near the peak of the housing bubble. My timing was much better. Today, I’m not adding to my real estate bucket. There just aren’t that many great deals out there. This is key to how I invest. Rather than fight the market, I let it determine how I allocate my money.

J.S.: Can you tell us about some of your other buckets?

E.B.: Well, I have a bucket for gold. But I don’t view gold as an investment designed to make money. I see it as a key long term asset. When gold is cheap, I pour money into this asset. I don’t think about this bucket often. I just get the gold, vault it, and move on.

I also have a permanent life insurance bucket. This bucket is important because I have a few people that depend on me. If I die, they’re out of luck. So, I need to have life insurance. Specifically, I own a couple dividend-paying life insurance policies. A lot of people consider these terrible investments, but that’s because they don’t understand them.

You see, any extra money that I put in this bucket on top of the minimum annual premium grows 6% to 7% per year, tax free. If I don’t use the policy, over time I’ll have a fairly large amount of cash in that bucket that I spend, borrow from, or use to buy more life insurance. And, of course, if the worst does happen, my dependents receive a large death benefit. This money will help them get by in my absence.

J.S.: Interesting, it sounds like this bucket protects you and gives you flexibility.

E.B.: Exactly. The reason I invest this way is because it makes me less “fragile.” Now, I still have plenty of exposure to rising asset prices in other buckets. But, if you’re smart about when and how much you add to each bucket, your “boring” buckets will eventually balance out your more speculative buckets. The result is a more stable financial situation without giving up the quest for profits. I like investing this way because I no longer worry about trying to maximize my profit on every trade or every time the market changes course.

J.S.: Let’s talk about your stock buckets next. I’m sure our readers would love to know what’s in your portfolio. 

E.B.: Sure. As I said earlier, I have two of them. One is for stocks I plan to hold for the long haul. I don’t trade these stocks often. I’m only a seller if something happens that changes the business landscape for one of the companies. I typically own between six and eight of these companies at any given time. One of my favorite long term holdings is a company that make crackers you buy at the gas station and pretzels that go well with beer. Last year, the company acquired a business that sells almonds and other nuts. It’s a great company. And it now pays me a decent yield of 3%, since I’ve owned the stock for a few years.

J.S.: What are some of your other long term stock holdings?

E.B.: I also have shares of one of the country’s best regional banks. And I own shares of one of America’s most iconic companies. This company is basically a drug dealer, peddling sugar and caffeine from small rented stores. You get the picture. Now, these aren’t the most exciting investments in the world but, over time, you see the value of owning rock solid American businesses.

You end up with companies that slowly capture market share from their competitors, invest money back into their businesses, and pay dividends. I don’t see how you can get hurt having this bucket represent 20% of your net worth. It’s also worth mentioning that I like to own these stocks in company sponsored dividend reinvestment plans.

Since these are long-term investments, I don’t want to log into a brokerage account and see them next to my trading positions every day. Holding them directly on the company’s books means all my dividends get reinvested into additional shares, usually at no cost. The final benefit is I don’t have to worry about my broker going bust. Holding shares directly registered with a company means there’s nobody standing between you and your investment.

J.S.: That leaves us with your speculation bucket. Can you tell us a little bit about this one?

E.B.: Ah, my favorite. I’ve done fairly well speculating. The key here is separating good speculations from bad ones. As a professional investor, a lot of opportunities come across my desk. Most of them aren’t worth my time. You have to pass on a lot of bad speculations before you find a great one.

J.S.: Can you tell us about one of your better speculations?

E.B.: At a lunch meeting with my banker in 2009, he told me about a company in town that invented a hurricane simulation machine. They placed a few in malls, shopping centers, arcades, and museums and charged $2 per customer. The test machines took in $4,000 to $5,000 per month. The company built each machine for around $12,000. The company had trouble getting a bank to lend it money. It was right after the financial crisis, after all.

I met with the company, saw the machine, and looked at their business plan. A few other investors and I funded the company. We bought preferred shares that paid a 20% dividend. We also received a portion of the company’s profits for the first two years, which boosted our initial returns. Seven and a half years later, I’m still collecting monthly checks from the company. I’ve more than doubled my money, and I could sell the shares anytime I want.

J.S.: Have you done any other speculations like this recently?

E.B.: Yes. Before I got into this business, I ran a gold fund for a few years. My former business partner from that fund just took his gold streaming and royalty company public. Our company policy does not allow me to share the name of the stock, since I own shares. I’m involved in that deal to the tune of about 1% of the company. I think there’s a realistic shot that I’ll make 5–10 times my money.

J.S.: Most people would kill to make that much on a single investment. Why are you so optimistic?

E.B.: I think it’s a good time to speculate on small gold and silver stocks. I especially like royalty and streaming companies like this one. They avoid the tremendous financial burdens that mining companies face.
I also look for companies that have a winning strategy but that are overlooked by the market. If these companies execute, my odds of success go up.

But you need to have cash on hand, or what some people call dry powder, to take advantage of these opportunities. That’s because great deals usually require quick action. When one of my speculations is a winner, I’ll take profits and put them into other buckets, depending on what looks good at the time. I almost never leave the entire profit in the bucket it came from.

J.S.: Got it. So, do you like to keep a certain percentage in each bucket at any given time? What rules, if any, do you follow?

E.B.: I don’t really follow a set of rules when it comes to asset allocation. That makes it hard to take advantage of huge opportunities when they appear. For example, I wouldn’t have invested in the Florida rental real estate market in 2009 and 2010 if I stuck to strict rules. When in doubt, you can divide new money equally between buckets. You can also sit on cash and wait for buying opportunities to present themselves.

J.S.: What kind of investments do you focus on in The Casey Report?

E.B.: That’s your most valuable question so far. In The Casey Report, we fill the long-term stock and speculative stock buckets. We try to predict what the investing world will be like one to two years down the road. We then buy stocks that will benefit most as the world changes. In stock investing, that’s the sweet spot where you find the most value in the shortest period of time.

Our goal is to beat the S&P 500 every year. We want our readers to have enough success to irritate their wealth manager. Hopefully, they can use that success and the lessons learned in The Casey Report to beat the market in their asset buckets.

J.S.: Thank you for your time, E.B.

E.B.: You’re welcome.


In August, E.B. told his readers to buy a small North American mining company. At the time, few investors knew about the company. Its stock traded for less than $1. But E.B. said the stock wouldn’t fly under the radar for much longer…and he was exactly right.

In just four months, this stock has soared 115%. Normally, we wouldn’t encourage you to buy a stock after an explosive run like this. But E.B. recently went on record and said, “the stock doubled, it will double again.” To see why, watch this brand-new presentation. It talks about an event that E.B. says will take place exactly one month from today. If the event goes as expected, this stock should skyrocket again.

You can learn more about this event, including how to take advantage of it, by watching this FREE video.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
How to Use the New Market Manipulation to Your Advantage

It’s time for another one of Don Kaufman’s wildly popular webinars. Don’t miss this live online seminar, How to Use the New Market Manipulation to Your Advantage, with Don Kaufman this Tuesday December 6th. at 8:00 PM New York, 7:00 PM Central or 5:00 PM Pacific.

During this free webinar you will learn:

  • How scarcely used recent additions in market structure have forever changed how we view price movement and volatility.
  • What weekly strategy you can use to take minimal risk and produce astonishing returns surrounding predictable or manipulated movements in any stock, ETF, or index.
  • The one product that has become statistically significant in determining the next market move so whether you’re a long term investor, swing trader, or intra-day trader you can get tuned into what’s driving today’s marketplace.
  • How you can use market efficiency to your advantage in all aspects of your investments, retirement accounts, stock and options trading accounts, futures trading and more.
  • How you can trade up to several times per week without having to continually monitor your positions, “set it and forget it” with this low risk high reward trade.

      Don’s Webinars have an attendance limit that we always hit. This one will be no exception.

      Visit Here to Register Now!

      See you Tuesday night!
      Ray C. Parrish
      aka the Crude Oil Trader

Stock Trkr
Mike Seery’s Weekly Futures Recap – Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Coffee and Sugar

It’s been a crazy end to the week of November 28th through December 2nd with the wild ride up we had in crude oil and that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.06 a barrel while currently trading at 50.55 up about $4.50 for the trading week all due to the fact of OPEC cutting 4.5% of production sending prices in Wednesdays and Thursdays trade sharply higher now hitting a 5 week high. Prices bottomed out around November 14th at 42.74 & now has rallied about $8 as this market remains extremely choppy and has gone nowhere over the last 6 months as I am currently sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is poor therefore the monetary risk is too high to enter in my opinion. The energy sector has caught fire including natural gas as winter is now upon us which is the high demand for heating oil as well, however I still think this market remains choppy for the rest of 2016 as a strong U.S dollar could limit prices to the upside in my opinion so look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk. Crude oil is now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average with major resistance around the $52 level which was hit in the month of October on a couple of different occasions and if that level is broken you have to think that the bullish trend would continue, but at present I’m recommending no position. 
Trend: Higher 
Chart Structure: Poor

Natural gas futures in the January contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.20 while currently trading at 3.46 up significantly for the trading week hitting a 5 week high. At the current time, I’m sitting on the sidelines as I wrote about this market 2 weeks ago as I was looking to get into a bullish position. However, the chart structure did not meet my criteria as the monetary risk was too high at the time. Natural gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as prices look to retest the contract high which was hit on October 18th at 3.67 as we enter the extremely volatile winter season which can cause tremendous price spikes due to very cold weather in the Midwestern part of the United States. Natural gas has been on a wild roller coaster bottoming out on November 9th at 2.72 as I’m looking for a consolidation before entering as the entire energy sector has caught fire over the last several weeks. There is a price gap between 3.22/3.25 and that makes me nervous if you have a bullish position as I do think that gap will be closed within the next week so let’s keep a close eye on that price level. 
Trend: Higher 
Chart Structure: Poor

Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,181 an ounce while now trading at 1,175 hitting a fresh 8 month low as prices continue to move southward on a weekly basis as I am kicking myself as I am not short, however, I have not been picking a bottom either. At present, I’m telling investors to avoid this market, but certainly, do not be buying this commodity as I do believe lower prices are ahead as I’m still very bullish the U.S dollar and the stock market as a whole since both of those are negative towards gold prices. The 10 year note today broke 2.40% which is the highest yield since January and I do believe interest rates are going higher which is not another negative influence towards gold prices. Gold futures continue to move lower despite the fact that crude oil is about $6 in the last 2 trading sessions which generally is very bullish most inflationary commodities, however, that shows you how weak gold is at present as demand is lacking. 
Trend: Lower 
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.55 an ounce while currently trading at 16.53 basically unchanged with the week trading in a very nonvolatile manner as prices are stuck in a two week consolidation after hitting a 5 month low. Silver prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to occur which could develop in the next couple of weeks as the chart structure is improving on a daily basis, therefore, lowering monetary risk. Gold prices have been falling rather dramatically ever since the Trump election as that has put severe pressure on silver prices ,however if we are going to expand the economy & do huge infrastructure stimulus I would think that silver prices look cheap as copper prices are still right near recent highs and sharply higher from their 2016 lows. Trading is all about risk/reward and at present I just don’t see a trade in this commodity as trading to trade is a very dangerous over the course of time as you must be patient and wait for probabilities to improve in your favor. 
Trend: Lower – Mixed 
Chart Structure: Improving

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 155.0 a pound while currently trading at 145.60 down about 900 points from trading week with prices not seen since mid August as prices topped out last month around the 1.80 level, but at the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure has been poor in this market for months. Coffee prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average for the 1st time in months & that tells you that the short term trend is lower with the next major level of support around the 140 level as I do believe coffee prices are getting cheap. A strong U.S dollar is certainly keeping a lid on many agricultural products including coffee, but my only short position in the soft commodities is a short sugar position which also continues to move lower. However, the volatility will be to the upside in coffee as were starting to enter the very volatile and critical winter growing season in the country of Brazil. Many of the commodity markets have been very choppy over the last several months, and that’s why I only have 1 trade recommendation as I’m waiting for better chart structure to develop across many different sectors as that might take some time. 
Trend: Lower 
Chart Structure: Poor

Get additional commodity calls from Mike Seery on Cocoa, Sugar, Soybean, Cotton and more….Just Click Here

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Two Days with Real and Wannabee Elite

By Doug Casey

Recently I made a few comments about the world’s self-identified “elite”, and also about the migrants that are plaguing Europe. Happily, I was able to do some one stop shopping on both of these topics when I was in New York to attend a very elitist and Globalist conference. I’m not going to name it because its organizers/sponsors are business partners of mine. 

And since they spent multi millions putting it together, and I pretty much despised their invitees, I’m not about to identify it exactly. Just let me say that the conclave has aspirations to become another Council on Foreign Relations, Bilderberg, Bohemian Grove, Atlantic Council, or Davos. Same kind of people, same ideas. Uniformly bad ideas. But ideas that the public has been brainwashed into thinking are good.

A lot of people are afraid these groups control the world, or at least governments. They don’t. They’re social gatherings for high level government employees and NGO types who like to network, and feel relevant. And lots of their minions, who enjoy the rich food, pretending they’re big shots too, while listening to pontifications by actual big shots. They hope they can cozy up to them, close enough to ride a richer gravy train.

The avowed purpose of this conclave was to “build the public private partnership”—the exact definition of fascism. So there were also lots of big league corporate types who want to “make a difference”, and rich guys who want to be known for something besides having money.

Warren Buffett

The program opened with Warren Buffett’s talk about how he didn’t need $50 billion, didn’t believe anybody else did either, and why he was a “philanthropist” who would give it all away. The avuncular Buffett is an investment genius; I enjoyed and agreed with everything he said on investing. But, like his friend Bill Gates, he’s also an autistic idiot savant. That’s someone who is a genius at one thing, and a fool at most everything else.

Most people assume that if you know about investing, you must also know about economics, which is a related discipline. But that’s completely untrue. It’s analogous to thinking that someone who knows how to drive a car also knows how one works. Economics is the study of how men go about producing and consuming; investing is the practice of allocating capital for maximum returns. Buffett’s grasp of economics is shallow, conventional, and unrelated to his success as an investor.

Furthermore, if Buffett was really a philanthropist he wouldn’t dissipate his $50 billion on poor people in Third World countries (which is where I suspect most of what’s left after administrative expenses will go). That will assuage some liberal guilt, but will vanish without a trace like water poured into the Sahara.
And actually just make the root problem worse in many ways. If he really wants to help his fellow man, he would continue compounding capital at 20%, forever. Capital makes the world wealthy; consuming or frittering away capital makes the world poor. But enough on Buffett. He only exasperated me for about 40 minutes out of two full days.

George Soros

Much worse was George Soros. He spent his time not just passively endorsing (like Buffett), but actively promoting disastrous policies. In essence, these were his major points. 

1) Brexit should be overturned, regardless of the vote. 
2) The EU should spend at least $200 billion a year (in addition to what individual countries spend) both to make migrants welcome, and to install a Marshall Plan for Africa. 
3) All of Europe should import migrants at least proportionally to the 1mm entering Germany. He recognized that the migrants represent an “existential crisis” for Europe, but believes the solution is to accommodate them. 
4) The EU should actively arm against Russia. 
5) The EU in Brussels should be granted the right to tax.

As I listened to him I felt I’d been transported to Bizzarro World, or perhaps some magic land from Gulliver’s Travels, where everything is upside down, wrong is right, and black is white. Just as much of Soros’ presentation was on migration, so was much of the rest of the conference. It’s very much on the minds of the “elite”.

His new Marshall Plan would consist of Europe and the US sending trillions to African governments to develop the Continent. Strange, really. Africa has received about a trillion of foreign aid over the last 50 years; that capital has either been wasted on uneconomic boondoggles, or shipped off to the bank accounts of the ruling class. Soros is far from naïve; he’s got to know this. 

I wonder what he actually hopes to accomplish, and why? After all, he’s 84 years old, and doesn’t need any more money. Well, it’s hard to be sure how some people’s minds are wired. And, as The Phantom once asked, “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?”

Incidentally—completely contrary to conventional wisdom—I consider the much lauded Marshall Plan to have been an unnecessary and destructive boondoggle. But this isn’t the moment to explain why that’s true.
As I said above, the Summit was centered on migration. I’ve recently commented on the subject, and will reiterate a few points below before returning to the views of the Globalists and self-identified Elite.

A Word on Migration

Let me start by saying I’m all for immigration and completely open borders to enable opportunity seekers from anyplace to move anyplace else. With two big, critically important, caveats….. 

1) there can be no welfare or free government services, so everyone has to pay his own way, and no freeloaders are attracted 
2) all property is privately owned, to minimize the possibility of squatter camps full of beggars.

In the absence of welfare benefits, immigrants are usually the best of people because you get mobile, aggressive, and opportunity seeking people that want to leave stagnant and repressive cultures for vibrant and liberal ones. That was the case with the millions of immigrants who came to the US in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. And they had zero in the way of state support.

But what is going on in Europe today is entirely different. The migrants coming to Europe aren’t being attracted by opportunity in the new land so much as the welfare benefits and the soft life. Western Europe is a massive welfare state that providing free food, housing, medical care, schooling, and living expenses to all comers. Benefits like these will naturally draw in poor people from poor countries. For the most part they’ll be unskilled, poorly educated, and many will have a bad attitude. The question arises why—since they’re almost all Muslims—they aren’t being welcomed by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, or Brunei, which are wealthy Muslim countries.

What we’re talking about here is the migration of millions of people of different language, different race, different religion, different culture, and different mode of living. If you’re an alien and you’re 1 out of 10,000, or 1000, or even 100, you’re a curiosity, an interesting outsider. And you’d have to integrate in the new society. But an influx of millions of migrants can only destroy the old culture. And guarantee antagonism—especially when the locals are forced to pay for it. In many ways, what’s happening now isn’t just comparable to what happened 2,000 years ago with the migration of the Germanic barbarians into the Roman Empire. It’s potentially much more serious.

Although most of the migration will be out of Africa, it’s supposed to be official Chinese policy to migrate about 300 million Chinese into Africa in the years to come. They’re employed in building roads, mines, railroads and other infrastructure. The Africans like the goodies, but don’t like the Chinese. It has the makings of a race war a generation or so in the future. 

The problem won’t only be tens or hundreds of millions of Africans migrating to Europe, but tens or hundreds of millions of Chinese migrating to Africa. The EU is a huge aggravating factor with the migrant situation. Brussels is full of globalists and doctrinaire socialists who not only promote bad policies, but make the whole continent pay for the mistakes of its most misguided members.

The migrants, who are manifestly unwelcome in Hungary, Poland, and other Eastern European countries, will prove another big impetus for the breakup of the EU. Millions of Africans will want to emigrate, especially to the homelands of their ex-colonial masters in Europe. The colonizers are now themselves being colonized. Fair enough, I suppose; a case of the sins of the father truly devolving upon the sons.

If I was an African from south of the Sahara, I’d absolutely try to get to Italy or Greece or France or Spain or on my way to Northern Europe to cash in on the largesse of these stupid Europeans. I’m a fan of what’s left of Western Civilization. I hate to see it washed away. But that’s what will happen if the floodgate is opened.

Unless the Europeans get in front of this situation, it’s not just some refugees from the Near East they’ll have to deal with. Especially with the economic chaos of The Greater Depression, it’s going to be many millions from Africa, and then perhaps millions more from Central Asia, and even India and Bangladesh. The world is becoming a very small place. What happens when scores of thousands of migrants set up a squatter camp someplace—with no food, shelter, or sanitary facilities? What will happen when there are scores or hundreds of squatter camps? Unlike the Goths and the Vandals, who became the new aristocracy, the chances of the Africans integrating is essentially zero. 

The situation is likely to be most stressful…..

Some will say “But you have to be charitable, you can’t just let them starve because they’ve had some bad luck”. To that I’d say an individual, or a family, can have some bad luck. But the places these people come from have had “bad luck” for centuries. Their bad luck is the consequence of their political, economic, and social systems. Their cultures—let me note the elephant in the room—are backward, degraded, and unproductive. It makes no sense, it’s idiotic, to import—at huge expense—masses of people that have a culture of “bad luck”.

On just one day recently, the Italian Coast Guard rescued 10,000 Africans off the Libyan coast—almost all men from Guinea, Gambia, Nigeria, and neighboring countries—and transported them to Italy. It’s hard to see them ever going back home. But it’s certain they’ll encourage they’re friends and families to join them.
The situation can only get worse. Why? In 1950, the 250 million Africans were only 9% of the world’s population; it’s 27% now, but there will be 4 billion, for 40%, in 2100. 

Making that observation is highly politically incorrect, and presumably racist. I’ll have more to say on racism in the future. But the fact is that Africa has always been an economic basket case; if Vasco Da Gama had thrown out a wheel when he was rounding the Cape, he would also have had to throw out an instruction book on how to use it. But nobody could have read it.

Be that as it may. But Europeans made things worse when they conquered the continent and divided it up into political entities that made zero sense from a cultural, linguistic, religious or tribal viewpoint. That guaranteed chaos for the indefinite future. That’s why it’s always a mad scramble to get control of the government in these countries, in order to loot the treasury, entrench ones cronies, and punish ones enemies. Until there’s a bloody revolution, and the shoe goes on another foot.

Here’s the takeaway. The population of Africa is going up by several billion people in the years to come. The net wealth of the continent is going nowhere. The locals will want to move wholesale to Europe, where the living is easy. And where the politically correct Cultural Marxists are anxious to destroy their own civilization.
Meanwhile, there are hundreds of think tanks in the U.S. alone, most located within the Washington Beltway who believe that these people should be encouraged to migrate, or imported en masse. They’re populated by partisan academics, ex-politicos, retired generals and others circulating through the revolving doors of the military/industrial/political/academic complex.

They’re really just propaganda outlets, funded by foundations, and donors who want to give an intellectual patina to their views and, to use a popular phrase, “make a difference”.

Think tanks, and their cousins, the lobbyists and the NGOs, are mostly what I like to call Running Dogs, who act as a support system for the Top Dogs in the Deep State. Their product is “policy recommendations,” which influence how much tax you have to pay and how many new regulations you have to obey. Think tanks are populated almost exclusively by people who are, simultaneously, both “useful idiots” and “useless mouths.” They’re no friends of the common man.

The migration policies they’re promoting are creating minor chaos now. With world-class chaos in the wings.
Let me repeat, and re-emphasize, what I said earlier. The free-market solution to the migrant situation is quite simple. If all the property of a country is privately owned, anyone can come and stay as long as he can pay for his accommodations. When even the streets and parks are privately owned, trespassers, beggars, squatters, migrants, vagrants and the like have a problem. A country with 100% private property, and zero welfare, would only attract people who like those conditions. And they’d undoubtedly be welcome as individuals. But “migration” would be impossible.

This is how the migration problem could be solved. You don’t need the government. You don’t need the army. You don’t need visas or quotas. You don’t need laws. You don’t need treaties to solve the migration problem. All you need is privately owned property and the lack of welfare benefits. Instead, think tanks will come up with some cockamamie political solution. But the good news is that it will speed up the disintegration of the EU.

My prediction that the Continent will one day just be a giant petting zoo for the Chinese is intact—assuming the current wave of migrants approve. There will also be an exodus of capital and people from Europe to parts of Latin America, plus to the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is, obviously, bad for Europe and good for the recipient countries, since these emigrants will be educated and affluent.
But, having said that, let me take you back to the conference where migration was a major topic of discussion by the elite.

Back to the Conference

Those are my thoughts on the topic of migration. Here’s what other attendees thought….

I spent a couple of hours listening to a panel entitled “Corruption in Latin America”. A bunch of ex-Presidents commiserated on how awful corruption is, and how new laws ought to be passed to stamp it out once and for all. They were all skilled, even enthusiastic, bullshit artists, who knew how to blather meaninglessly, saying nothing. They all agreed that illegal drugs were a major cause for corruption, but nobody thought to mention that maybe the problem wasn’t the drugs, but the fact they were illegal.
None of these people understood the actual causes and the nature of corruption. Which is ironic, since most of them were quite wealthy—something that’s hard to do on a Third World politician’s salary.

One especially naive panelist, representing the US State Department, said “many see the private sector as part of the problem”. What, one might ask, actually causes the problem?

The short answer was supplied by Tacitus 1900 years ago. He said “The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the State”. That’s because the laws invariably have economic consequences, benefiting one group at the expense of another. The most practical way to obviate them is by paying off an official.

Naturally, nobody even broached the subject that laws themselves cause corruption. And corruption is actually not only necessary, but is encouraged, whenever economic laws are passed. Plan your life around corruption remaining endemic, no matter how much self-righteous apparatchiks blather on about it at conferences.

General David Petraeus

I listened to David Petraeus offer solutions to the world’s problems. They were what you might expect from an ex-general and CIA director. To David it’s all about using force and money “intelligently”. It never seemed to cross his mind that adventures like those in Iraq and Afghanistan ($6 trillion and counting, to accomplish absolutely nothing) might actually bankrupt the US. Or that he was intimately involved in the ongoing disaster.

My takeaway is that, after David collects say $20 million in the “private sector”, we’ll see him resurface as a candidate for the US Presidency. He’s smooth, polished, and confident. I was somewhat surprised that some general wasn’t tapped this election for a VP slot, since the military is the US Government’s most trusted branch by far. Rest assured there will be a general running in 2020.

Donald Rumsfeld also held the stage for 40 minutes. He was affable, likable, and entertaining, as are many sociopaths. Not even the faintest acknowledgement passed his lips about how the current migrant disaster was rooted in his unprovoked attacks on backward countries on the other side of the world. But why should he care? He’s already collected his $20 million in the “private sector” after many years of “service”.

The Migration Round Table

Another highlight was listening to a Round table on “The Public/ Private Partnership on Migration”. It might as well have been a meeting of the Soviet politburo, where everyone implicitly accepted the same totally flawed principles, speaking seriously and sincerely to each other about how they plan to change the world. These people were mainly interested in reinforcing each others views, like a conversation on NPR.

How to solve the refugee/migrant situation? No solutions were proposed by any of the 40 high government officials and think tank big shots. Everybody’s attention focused on two things: how awful the situation is, and how they can feed, clothe, and house the masses. I was amused at the sight of parasites talking to parasites about parasites.

References were made to “broader economic integration”, a nebulous phrase that can mean almost anything, and no references at all to freer markets. There were continual references to a “partnership” between the public and private sectors. It made me feel I was among aliens. How can there be a partnership between producers, and those who not only steal 50% of the production, but then want to direct where the remainder goes. These people all seemed to believe that if you earned money, you didn’t deserve to keep it. But if you needed money, you were entitled to it.

There was a discussion about how the crisis that started in 2007 has set back the progress of Africa. But zero discussion of what caused the crisis. Or what would happen when it stated up again (which is happening right now). The only discussion of how to create prosperity was about Special Economic Zones—areas insulated from the taxes and regulations affecting the rest of the country. Needless to say no one thought to ask why an entire country couldn’t become an SEZ.

A question occurred to me about the several hundred thousand refugees/migrants that still might be imported to the US—although it’s much less likely with Trump as the President: Exactly who will pay for them, and how much will the pleasure of their company cost? These people have nothing but the rags on their backs. 

Will they be ferried to the US on commercial airliners? When they land, how will they be clothed? They’ll need to be fed for an indefinite period. And housed. And entertained. Mosques must be found, or founded, so they can worship. Very few have any marketable skills, and very few even speak English. Most of them could just stay on welfare for the rest of their lives.

It seems completely insane. But it’s clearly the “Globalist agenda”, endorsed by all these people. Of course there’s some perverse justice at work if the US winds up having to import a few million Muslim refuges. The Muslim world was, at least, stable before Bush and Obama went on a wild “regime change” adventure. Now chaos reigns in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Libya.

One justification put forward for migration to Europe was that its population was dropping, and it would need people, if only to take care of the oldsters. For what it’s worth, we’ll have robots doing that within a decade.

Conclusion?

You’re perhaps wondering how any sensible person could sit there and listen to such blather and nonsense for two days without reacting. Of course I wanted to debunk about 95% of what I heard. But the Summit was structured so that Guests didn’t have a forum from which to challenge the Nomenklatura and their Apparatchiks. So I sat there, observing an alien species in a sort of formalized mating ritual. No opportunity presented itself to shock these copulating dogs with a bucket of cold water. Certainly not from a seat in the Peanut Gallery.

Are conferences like this one, and its lookalikes, a waste of time? Completely. And keep that in mind before you make a contribution to a charity or an NGO. Could it have been worthwhile? Yes. If it had addressed the questions I posed above. But, even then, the answers would have been worthless, given the attendees.

I think migration is going to be one of the biggest problems in the next generation. It’s a sure thing that not just millions, but tens of millions of “feet people” and “boat people” are going to try to overrun Europe. If they’re accepted and resettled it will destroy what’s left of Western Civilization. If they’re repelled, it could result in millions of deaths, and be quite a scandal. I don’t know how this will sort out. But it’s going to be a big deal. And ugly.

What should you do? Own plenty of gold and silver, and make sure that you have one or more residences that are out of harm’s way.

Editor’s Note: If you haven’t seen it yet, Doug Casey has just released his latest and most controversial prediction yet. It involves a shocking currency ban (not gold) that may soon take effect under the Trump presidency. 

Already, Fed members have met in private to discuss this matter. And the savings of millions could be devalued if this goes into effect. 

To watch the video and discover the 4 steps Doug is taking to prepare, click here.

Stock Trkr
A Chicken in Every Pot

By Jeff Thomas

That’s a pretty powerful statement. Is it historically supportable? Let’s visit a current example Venezuela to examine the overall process of collectivism, then look at a few other historical cases and see what we can learn.  Collectivism will always eventually destroy the economy of any nation, no matter how great it may be.

Venezuela – 17 Years of Collectivism
In 1980, Venezuela was deemed to be the fourteenth most economically free country in the world. Today, it’s a veritable train wreck, having failed in every conceivable way. How did this happen? Was it just bad luck? No, quite the contrary.

Venezuela’s prosperity was fueled primarily by the export of oil. The downward spiral began in the 1980s as a result of a drop in the world oil price. Until that time, there had been strong public support for the free market, but diminished oil receipts resulted in a decline in living standards for most all Venezuelans, which left them open to claims by collectivist political candidates that the whole problem was the free market. In 1999, they elected Hugo Chávez, who promised to solve the problem through collectivism – the promise of a chicken in every pot.

Mister Chávez began to take from the “haves” and provide largesse for the “have-nots.” Not surprisingly, he was highly praised by the have-nots. So, he went further. He nationalized many of Venezuela’s industries. Industry became less and less profitable, so less and less money flowed through the system each year. Eventually, the revenue to the government was insufficient to pay for the promised largesse. The leader then died and the new leader, Nicolás Maduro, inherited a zombie economy. In desperation, he introduced capital controls and increased nationalization and regulations, hoping to squeeze as much as possible from the economy before it went off the cliff. The result was a fully dysfunctional economy, replete with massive job losses, increasing shortages, and, finally, starvation.

Again, having once been number fourteen on the list of economically free countries, Venezuela is now at the very bottom – at number 152 – as a direct result of collectivism. As Margaret Thatcher once said, “The trouble with socialism is that, eventually, you run out of other people’s money.” Quite so. It does take a while, however. A newly collectivist state at first appears to be solving problems. What it’s really doing is feeding off of past profits. It gobbles up the economy’s store of nuts, but when these nuts are gone, that’s it – there’s no more, and the economy collapses. People starve.

Venezuela now has increasing shortages of food, hyperinflation has set in, the government is totally corrupt, the government is running out of funds for entitlements, and government healthcare is overburdened and failing. Like Cuba in the 1980s, there are no longer any dogs or cats on the streets of Caracas, and for the same reason as in Cuba – they’re being eaten by those with no other source of protein.

USSR – 74 Years
Vladimir Lenin introduced collectivism to Russia in 1917. He was able to do so because a revolution had just been completed by the people of Russia as a result of their dissatisfaction with a decline in the standard of living of most Russians. For decades thereafter, capitalism existed within the primarily communist system, but eventually, the parasite sucked the host dry. The USSR collapsed in 1991 for the same reason Venezuela is collapsing today.

China – 29 Years
Mao Tse-tung took over China in 1949 with a collectivist regime. But the 10,000-year rule he promised fell a bit short. It ended in 1978 in an economic dead-end. It followed the same path as the USSR, but the process was quicker.

Cuba – 57+ Years
Cuba lasted a bit longer. In the 1950s Cubans had become dissatisfied, due to the decline in the standard of living for the majority of Cubans, and were ripe targets for collectivist promises. They welcomed Fidel Castro in 1959. Cuba limped along for decades, but in recent years, the coffers of the state have dried up and the only hope to keep paying the salaries to government leaders lies in the grassroots cuentapropista movement – a rebirth of the free market. Collectivism in Cuba is nearing its end.

In each of the above countries, the pattern has been roughly the same.

  • A formerly prosperous country experiences a period in which the standard of living for the majority of citizens drops significantly.
  • The voters react by electing a new leader who promises a chicken in every pot (in essence, collectivism, although it is not always called that at the time of the election).
  • The new leader begins to rob the producers of wealth to provide largesse for those with less. This has a direct positive benefit for those with less, resulting in an increase in voters supporting collectivist promises over a period of years.
  • Over time, the free market experiences a permanent loss of wealth, resulting in diminished largesse for those who are now dependent upon it.
  • The government imposes increasing capital controls and other regulations, which deteriorate the free market more severely, causing inflation, shortages of goods, loss of jobs, and eventually starvation and systemic collapse.
  • The voters choose a new leader who promises fiscal responsibility.
  • With a return to a freer market, prosperity slowly reappears.

The pattern is a predictable one because it’s based on human nature. An economic downturn occurs. The voters become suckers for false promises. The new collectivist government appears successful at first, because it’s feeding off the remains of the free market. But, eventually, it destroys the free market and collectivism crashes and burns.

So what does the above review tell us? Has the world learned its lesson? Not at all. What we can surmise from the above is that, whenever the standard of living for the majority of citizens drops significantly in a jurisdiction, the voters will be ripe for empty promises. In every such case, collectivism will appear to be the best solution.

Collectivism is by its very nature a parasitical system that creates nothing. It therefore will always eventually destroy the economy of any nation where it’s implemented, no matter how great that nation may be. The only uncertainty is the number of years required for destruction.

Today we’re witnessing the collapse of the primary jurisdictions of the former “free” world. They’re operating on a quasi-capitalist system that has been eroded by repeated injections of collectivism (primarily socialism and fascism). Increasingly, voters in each of these jurisdictions are becoming convinced that the promises made by collectivist candidates “just make sense.” As the system continues to spiral downward, as it inevitably will, the scales are likely to tip, not in the direction of a return to the free market, but in the direction of full-on collectivism.

Editor’s Note: Socialism often leads to economic and societal collapse, hyperinflation, shortages, and shrinking personal freedom. This has happened most recently in Venezuela.

The truth is, it can happen anywhere. The U.S. is not immune. In fact, it’s extremely vulnerable.
Increasing socialism, bad financial decisions, and massive debt levels will cause another financial crisis sooner rather than later.

We believe the coming crash is going to be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we saw in 2008 and 2009. Unfortunately, most people have no idea what really happens when an economy collapses, let alone how to prepare….

That’s exactly why Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video.

It also reveals how financial shock far greater than 2008 could strike America by the end of the year. And how it could either wipe out a big part of your savings… or be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime.

Click here to watch now
The article A Chicken in Every Pot was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Stock Trkr
One Giant Powder Keg… and the Fuse is Already Lit

By Nick Giambruno

Their mission was to capture, or more likely, kill. Dozens of renegade commandos in three Blackhawk helicopters swooped in on the holiday residence of the president. Immediately, they engaged in a fierce gun battle with the president’s bodyguards and killed a number of them. Tourists in a nearby five-star resort fled for their lives. Their idyllic vacations had turned into a war zone in the blink of an eye.

The president, however, was nowhere to be found. He had been tipped off about the plot and made it to the safety of his private jet. He had cheated death by mere minutes. The renegade soldiers got wind of the escape. They commandeered a couple of F16 fighter jets and sent them to the skies to shoot down the presidential jet. Aware the rebel F16s were hunting them, the president’s pilots were able to obfuscate the identity of their aircraft by altering the jet’s transponder signal.

The transponder is an electronic signal that shows an aircraft’s identity. It’s used by air traffic controllers to keep track of planes in the air. Somehow, the pilots of the presidential jet were able to set their transponder signal to make it appear as if they were instead a civilian passenger jet. The confused rebel fighter jets ran out of fuel and had to return to base before they figured out what happened.

The president had cheated death for the second time that day. This story sounds like something out of a Tom Clancy novel or a Hollywood blockbuster. But it’s not. It happened in real life earlier this summer. In Turkey.
The country is one giant powder keg and the fuse is already lit. When the next global crisis explodes, there’s a good chance Turkey will be involved somehow.

Turkey was founded from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. It’s where Europe meets Asia. Today, it’s at the epicenter of many crises that are destabilizing the world the migrant disaster in Europe, the ongoing carnage in Iraq and Syria, the battle with ISIS, a conflict with the Kurds, and the new Cold War with Russia. It could soon also play a big role in the collapse of the world’s largest economy, the European Union (EU).

It’s hard to think of another place that has more tripwires for a global meltdown. In light of all these potential triggers as well as the recent failed military coup d’état that killed over 290 people, I thought it was time to take a closer look at Turkey. Doug Casey and I just returned from the crisis stricken country, the latest destination we visited with (literal) blood in the streets.

We put our boots on the ground in the same area where that hit squad of rebel soldiers nearly assassinated Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president. (In addition to all of the crises listed above, the Turkish military had invaded northern Syria just before our arrival.)

Perhaps most importantly, Turkey is at the heart of the migrant crisis that is tearing Europe apart. The migrant crisis will be one of the main issues on the minds of Italians as they vote in the upcoming referendum, which could very well decide the fate of the EU and the euro currency. That’s why I’ve spent weeks on the ground in Italy, watching these events unfold.

The Financial Times commented on what would happen if the Italian referendum fails:

It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

Like with the Brexit vote, the migrant issue and by extension Turkey may determine the outcome of the Italian referendum on December 4, 2016.

Turkey Holds the Keys to the EU’s Future

Parroting U.S. concerns about democracy and human rights, the EU has also harshly criticized Turkey’s response to the failed coup. This hasn’t endeared them to the Turkish government. It’s actually incredibly stupid for the Europeans. And by stupid I mean exactly that an unwitting tendency toward self destruction. The Europeans fail to see the indirect and delayed consequences of their decision to antagonize the Turkish government.

That’s because the Turkish government holds the trump card on what is perhaps the most explosive political issue on the continent right now: the migrant crisis. Concerns about the unprecedented flow of migrants into Europe over the past couple of years played a key role in the Brexit vote. It’s also acting as a political accelerant to the rise of anti-EU parties all over Europe. It’s a simple relationship. The more migrants come to Europe, the more popular anti-EU political parties become, and the weaker the EU itself becomes.

This is where Turkey holds the keys to the future political landscape of Europe. Turkey is a major transit point migrants use on their way to Europe. The Turkish government doesn’t want the migrants to stay in Turkey, so they haven’t really had much of a reason to stop them from leaving for Europe. They even enjoyed the situation because it gave them negotiating leverage with Brussels. The Turks essentially said “give us what we want or we’ll open the floodgates.”

What the Turks want is lots of money and to join the Schengen visa free zone, which allows unfettered access to most of Europe. Brussels partially gave in to the blackmail. They started giving the Turks money to the tune of $6 billion and agreed to hold talks about getting visa-free access to the continent. In return, the Turks would cut off the flow of migrants.

For a while this arrangement worked. But after the attempted coup and then the purge of suspected putschists, the EU cried foul. They deemed the purges to be an erosion of democracy and the rule of law.
They basically told the Erdogan government it can forget about joining the Schengen zone.

Unsurprisingly, the Turkish government not so subtly warned that if the EU walks away from its part of the deal, so will it. Specifically, the Turkish government has threatened to open the migrant floodgates just in time for the Italian referendum and other key European elections. The Italian referendum could very well lead to the end of the euro and the EU itself, while triggering a global financial meltdown of historical proportions.

Turkey sending a new wave of migrants into Europe just before this key vote will help seal its fate.
There are potentially severe consequences in the currency and stock markets. That’s exactly why I recently spent weeks on the ground in Italy getting the scoop on this explosive story that almost nobody else is talking about.

New York Times best selling author Doug Casey and I just released an urgent video with all the details.
Our video reveals how a financial shock far greater than 2008 could strike America on December 4th, 2016. And how it could either wipe out a big part of your savings or be the fortune building opportunity of a lifetime. 

The video describes specific ways to profit as well as which stocks to avoid like radioactive waste. You can get a first look at this video by clicking here.

Get our latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
Carley Garner’s "Higher Probability Commodity Trading"

Carley Garner’s new book “Higher Probability Commodity Trading” takes readers on an unprecedented journey through the treacherous commodity markets; shedding light on topics rarely discussed in trading literature from a unique perspective, with the intention of increasing the odds of success for market participants.

In its quest to guide traders through the process of commodity market analysis, strategy development, and risk management, Higher Probability Commodity Trading discusses several alternative market concepts and unconventional views such as option selling tactics, hedging futures positions with options, and combining the practice of fundamental, technical, seasonal, and sentiment analysis to gauge market price changes.

Carley, is a frequent contributor of commodity market analysis to CNBC’s Mad Money TV show hosted by Jim Cramer. She has also been a futures and options broker, where for over a decade she has had a front row seat to the victories and defeats the commodity markets deal to traders.

Garner has a knack for portraying complex commodity trading concepts, in an easy-to-read and entertaining format. Readers of Higher Probability Commodity Trading are sure to walk away with a better understanding of the futures and options market, but more importantly with the benefit of years of market lessons learned without the expensive lessons.

Get Higher Probability Commodity Trading on Amazon….Get it Here!

Stock Trkr
The Next Big Short

The “Next Big Short” is a collection of looming market risks from The Heisenberg. This 37 page special report will show you the risks in the markets. How to explain The Heisenberg?

Essentially, it’s a collective brain trust of skilled traders willing to discuss markets with the freedom of anonymity. You can enjoy Heisenberg’s lively market commentary in the TheoDark Report section of their public blog.

Get the “Next Big Short ” free special report….Just Click Here

For more backstory, here’s Heisenberg in his own words: Heisenberg spent a long time in college. Probably too long. Be that as it may, the experience afforded him extensive cross disciplinary experience. From Aristotle to Kant to Wittgenstein, from Hobbes to Locke to Rousseau, from plain vanilla equities to FX to CDS, Heisenberg is right at home. With degrees in political science and business, as well as extensive post graduate work in political science and public administration, Heisenberg is uniquely positioned to analyze markets from a holistic perspective. He also has a sense of humor, which allows him to fully appreciate how entertaining it is to talk about himself in the third person.

Heisenberg has traded pretty much everything at one time or another and if he hasn’t traded it, he’s studied it enough to drive himself just as crazy as if he had. He doesn’t sleep much because the terminal doesn’t sleep and neither, generally speaking, do currency markets.

Heisenberg once took the law school admission test (LSAT) for fun with no intention of actually going to law school. He then took it again to try and beat his first score. He paid for the second test with profits he made from long calls on a Brazilian water utility ADR that he sold to close from the first iPhone (the 2.5G version that no one remembers) in the middle of a graduate political science class. His score on the verbal section of the graduate management admission test (GMAT) was near perfect. As was his score on the analytical writing portion. Don’t ask about the math section. He got bored after two hours and didn’t care about using the Pythagorean theorem to determine how long Timmy’s shadow was when he was standing next to a 90 degree flag pole.

Professionally, Heisenberg has worked in Manhattan and many other locales and has years of experience generating and monetizing financial web content. He’s continually amused at those who make it seem hard. You provide quality content for users on a consistent basis. Everything else falls into place. Build it, and they will come.

Get the “Next Big Short ” free special report….Just Click Here

See you in the markets putting the Next Big Short to work,
Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader

Stock Trkr
Five Ways to “Crash Proof” Your Portfolio Right Now

By Justin Spittler

The U.S. economy is running out of breath. As you probably know, the U.S. economy has been “recovering” since 2009. The current recovery, now seven years old, is one of the longest in U.S. history. It’s also one of the weakest.

Since 2009, the U.S. economy has grown at just 2.1% per year, making this the slowest recovery since World War II. Last quarter, the economy grew at just 1.1%. We won’t know how the economy did during this quarter until late October.

But we don’t expect good news, and that’s because signs of a stalling economy are everywhere.

They’re in the job market. 
The U.S. economy created 29,000 fewer jobs last month than economists expected. 
They’re in corporate earnings.
Profits for companies in the S&P 500 have been falling since 2014.
They’re even in the price of oil.
Right now, U.S. demand for gasoline is weak, which tells us Americans aren’t driving as much.

Today, we’re going to look at even more evidence that the economy is struggling. If this flood of bad economic data continues, the U.S. could soon enter its first recession in seven years. Normally, this wouldn’t worry us. After all, recessions are a normal part of the business cycle. But we don’t expect the next downturn to be a “run of the mill” recession. According to Casey Research founder Doug Casey, the next financial crisis will be “much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.” The good news is that there’s still time to protect yourself. We’ll show you how at the end of today’s issue. But first, you need to understand why we’re so worried about the economy.

The U.S. auto market is cooling off..…
The auto market has been one of the economy’s bright spots since the financial crisis. Auto sales have climbed six straight years. Last year, the industry sold a record 17.5 million cars. Many analysts see the booming auto market as proof that the economy is heading in the right direction. Like a house, a car is a big purchase. Most people will only spend thousands of dollars on a car if they think the economy is doing well. After all, you wouldn’t buy a new car if you thought you were going to lose your job next month.

Because of this, car sales can say a lot about consumer confidence.

Auto sales plunged last month..…
     Yahoo! Finance reported last week:

The seasonally adjusted rate of motor vehicle sales decreased to 17 million from 17.88 million in July. Both car and truck sales were down for the month. For August, total vehicle sales were 1,512,556, down from 1,577,407 for a decrease of 4.1%.

After rising 66 straight months, retail car sales have now fallen four out of the last six months. And this trend is likely to continue. According to The Wall Street Journal, the CEO of Ford (F) said he expects his industry to sell fewer cars this year than they did last year. He expects sales to fall even more in 2017.
This isn’t just bad news for automakers like Ford. It’s a problem for the entire economy.

If people buy fewer cars, they’re probably going to take fewer vacations. They’re going to eat out less. They’re going to buy new clothes less often. In other words, the big drop off in car sales could mean U.S. consumers are starting to cut back.

The U.S. manufacturing sector is weakening right now..…
Last week, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 52.6 in July to 49.6 in August. This index measures the strength of the U.S. manufacturing sector. When the index dips below 50, it signals recession.

The U.S. services sector is hurting too..…
The services sector is made up of businesses that sell services instead of goods. It includes industries like banking and healthcare. The ISM Services Index fell from 55.5 in July to 51.4 last month. While this doesn’t indicate recession, last month’s sharp decline was still a major disappointment. Economists expected the index to hit 55.0. Last month’s reading was also the lowest since February 2010. More importantly, the services and manufacturing sectors are now weakening at the same time.

MarketWatch explained why that’s not a good sign last week:

[I]t’s unusual that both indexes would soften so much at the same time. The manufacturing index dropped to 49.4% from 52.6% in August and the ISM services gauge retreated to 51.4% from 55.5%. The combined reading of two indexes was also the weakest in six years.
Since these indexes often track closely with gross domestic product, the surprisingly poor turn has not gone unnoticed.

Right now, several key economic indicators are saying the economy is in trouble..…
We encourage you to take these warnings seriously. If you have any money in the stock market right now, take a good look at your portfolio. Get rid of any expensive stocks. They tend to fall further than cheap stocks during major sell offs. You should also avoid companies that need a growing economy to make money. These include airlines, major retailers, and restaurants; basically any company that depends on a healthy U.S. consumer.

Avoid companies with a lot of debt. If the economy continues to weaken, heavily indebted companies will struggle to pay their lenders. You don’t want to own a company that falls behind on its loans. We encourage you to hold more cash than usual. Setting aside cash will allow you to buy world class businesses for cheap after the next big sell off.

Finally, we recommend you own physical gold. As we often point out, gold is real money. It’s preserved wealth for centuries because it’s a unique asset. It’s durable, easily divisible, and easy to transport. It’s also survived every major financial crisis in history. This makes it the ultimate safe haven asset. These simple yet proven strategies will help “crash proof” your portfolio in case the economy continues to weaken. That’s never been more important.

To see why, watch this short presentation.

It talks about a major warning sign that one of Casey’s analysts recently uncovered. As you’ll see, this same warning appeared before the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s, before the ’97 Asian financial crisis and just before the 2000 tech crash.

More importantly, it explains how you can protect yourself today. Click here to watch.

Chart of the Day

The U.S. manufacturing sector is flashing warning signs. Today’s chart shows the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) going back to 2000. As we said earlier, this index measures the strength of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Last month, the ISM PMI hit 49.6. Any reading below 50 indicates recession.

You can see this index plunged below 50 during the last two recessions. It also sent out a few “false signals” over the years. It dipped below 50 but a recession never followed. Like any indicator, the ISM PMI isn’t perfect. Still, it’s worth keeping a close eye on. If manufacturing activity continues to weaken, other parts of the economy will too. And the ISM PMI is just one of many economic indicators flashing danger right now.

Get our latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
Webinar Replay…Low Risk Setups For Trading Precise Turning Points in Any Market

On September 6th John Carter of Simpler Options treated us to a special online training webinar. We discovered low risk option strategies for catching “bold and beautiful” reversal trades. John also showed us how to hunt for tops and bottoms using low risk setups for trading precise turning points in any market and so much more.

Watch the FREE Replay Here

Most traders have no idea how to capture the massive profit potential from trading major reversals. These days’ markets often turn on a dime and those who wait for ‘conservative’ setups either miss out or suffer steep losses.

Here’s what you can expect to learn during this webinar session….

  *  A simple 3-step process to identify major market turning points in any market

  *  How to find low risk, high probability trades in today’s volatile market conditions

  *  Why it’s finally possible to catch tops and bottoms in real time on almost any chart

  *  Why these ‘Bold and Beautiful’ reversal trades can be safer than ‘comfortable’ trades

  *  How to avoid getting suckered into the costly traps that most traders fall into

  *  How to adapt your trades automatically for choppy conditions AND big trends

  *  How to know when a support or resistance level is likely to hold or not

       Watch the FREE replay Right Here

       See you in the markets,
       Ray Parrish
       aka the Crude Oil Trader

Get John’s latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
The Subprime Loan Crisis Is Back…Here’s What It Could Mean for the Economy

By Justin Spittler

Subprime loans are going bad again. A “subprime” loan is a loan made to someone with bad credit. If the term sounds familiar, it’s because lenders issued millions of subprime loans during the early to mid-2000s. Banks made these risky loans thinking housing prices would “never fall.” When they did, subprime borrowers stopped paying their mortgages. The U.S. housing market collapsed, triggering the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

These days, lenders aren’t making as many reckless mortgages. But subprime lending is alive and well in the auto market. Since the financial crisis, subprime auto lending has exploded. According to Experian, subprime auto loans now make up more than 20% of all U.S. auto loans. Millions of Americans with bad credit now own cars they should have never bought in the first place. Risky subprime loans have also made the auto loan market incredibly fragile.

Right now, people are falling behind on their car loans at an alarming rate. As you’ll see, this isn’t just a big problem for lenders and car companies. It could also spell trouble for the entire U.S. economy.

Subprime auto loan delinquencies are skyrocketing…..
CNBC reported on Friday:

Delinquencies of at least 60 days for subprime auto loans are up 13 percent month over month for July, according to Fitch Ratings, and 17 percent higher from the same period a year ago.

Folks with good credit are falling behind on their car loans too. CNBC continues:

Even prime delinquencies are on the rise — Fitch Ratings’ survey said that last month’s prime auto loans were 21 percent more delinquent than in July 2015.

Prime loans are loans made to people with good credit.

The auto industry is preparing for more delinquencies…..
Last month, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) warned that rising delinquencies could hurt their businesses in the second half of this year.
According to USA Today, both giant carmakers have set aside millions of dollars to cover potential losses:

In a quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Ford reported in the first half of this year it allowed $449 million for credit losses, a 34% increase from the first half of 2015.
General Motors reported in a similar filing that it set aside $864 million for credit losses in that same period of 2016, up 14% from a year earlier.

Investors who own subprime loans are taking heavy losses…..

USA Today reported on Thursday:

[T]hese loans are packaged into bundles which are sold to investors, much like mortgages were packaged into bundles a decade ago before rising interest rates caused many of them to default, eventually triggering the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression. The annualized net loss rate — the percentage of those subprime loan bundles regarded as likely to default — rose 7.39% in July, up 28% from July 2015.

You may recall that Wall Street did the same thing with mortgages during the housing boom. They made securities from a bunch of bad mortgages. They marked them as safe and then sold them to investors. When the underlying mortgages went bad, folks who owned these securities suffered huge losses. These dangerous products allowed the housing crisis to turn into a full-blown global financial crisis.

By itself, a collapse of the auto loan market probably won’t trigger a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis..…

That’s because the auto loan market is much smaller than the mortgage market. The value of outstanding auto loans is “only” about $1 trillion. While that’s an all-time high, the auto loan market comes nowhere close to the $10 trillion residential mortgage market. Still, we’re keeping a close eye on the auto loan market.

If Americans are struggling to pay their car loans, they’re going to have trouble paying their mortgages, student loans, and credit cards too. This would obviously create problems for lenders and credit card companies. It will also hurt companies that depend on credit to make money.

E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, is shorting one of America’s most vulnerable retailers..…
In June, E.B. shorted (bet against) one of America’s biggest jewelry companies. According to E.B., credit customers make up 62% of its customers. These customers are 350% more valuable to the company than cash customers.

In other words, this company depends heavily on credit. This is a huge problem…and will only get worse as more folks continue to fall behind on their credit card bills—or stop paying them altogether. This is already happening at the company E.B shorted. He explained in the June issue of The Casey Report:

And the company is facing another problem…consumers failing to pay back their loans. From 2014 to fiscal 2016, its annual bad debt expenses rose from $138 million to $190 million. That’s a 30% increase. Over the same period, credit sales grew by only 20%. That means bad debt expenses rose 50% faster than credit sales.

He warned that “tough times are coming for the jewelry business.”

E.B.’s call was spot on..…
Last Thursday, the company reported bad second quarter results. For the second straight quarter, the company’s earnings fell short of analysts’ estimates. The company’s stock plummeted 13% on the news. It’s now down 10% since E.B. recommended shorting it in June. But E.B. says the stock is headed even lower:

We think there’s more pain to come as credit financing dries up…sales continue to drop…and more loans go unpaid.

You can learn more about this short by signing up for The Casey Report. If you act today, you can begin for just $49 a year. Watch this short video to learn how.

This is easily one of the best deals you’ll come across in our industry..…
That’s because Casey readers are crushing the market. E.B.’s portfolio is up 19% this year. He’s beat the S&P 500 3-to-1. What’s more, Casey Report readers are set up to make money no matter what happens to the economy—and that’s never been more important. To learn why, watch this short presentation.

Chart of the Day

Not all dividend-paying stocks are safe to own..…

Today’s chart compares the annual dividend yield of the U.S. 10-year Treasury with the annual dividend yield of the S&P 500. Right now, 10 years are paying about 1.5%. Companies in the S&P 500 are yielding 2.0%.

You can see the S&P 500 almost never yields more than 10 years. It’s only happened two other times since 1958. The first time was during the 2008 financial crisis. The other time was just after the recession.
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know the Federal Reserve is partly responsible for this. For the past eight years, the Fed has held its key interest rate near zero. This caused bond yields to crash. With Treasuries yielding next to nothing, many investors have bought stocks for income. But there’s a problem.

Companies in the S&P 500 are paying out $0.38 for every $1.00 they make in earnings. That’s close to an all time high. About 44 companies in the S&P 500 are paying out more in dividends than they earned over the past year. Meanwhile, corporate earnings have been in decline since 2014. Clearly, companies can’t continue to pay out near-record dividends for much longer.

As we explained yesterday, some companies may cut their dividends. This could cause certain dividend-paying stocks to crash. Some investors could see years’ worth of income disappear in a day. If you own a stock for its dividend, make sure the company can keep paying you even if the economy runs into trouble. We like companies with healthy payout ratios, little or no debt, and proven dividend track records.

Get our latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
Finally, a Low Risk Way to Catch Tops and Bottoms

Have you noticed we’re getting a lot of brutally sharp reversals in the markets lately? It’s so frustrating because most traders get caught on the wrong side over and over again. So called safe trend trades get destroyed while betting on bold reversals is working like clockwork.

What’s going on?

For years, it was possible to just buy any dip in stocks and crank out winner after winner. But those days are long gone. If you try that now, you’ll burn through your account in the blink of an eye. These days’ trends reverse on a dime, but at the same time, you can’t just blindly pick tops and bottoms either.

Anyone who was short stocks recently learned that lesson the hard way when the market rocketed to new all time highs. The bottom line is that those outdated strategies no longer work. If you want to generate consistent profits in these volatile conditions, you’ve got to adapt. And that’s why this short video by renowned trader John F. Carter is so exciting

You’ve just got to see the breakthrough strategy that allows him to catch massive price swings without breaking a sweat.

See for yourself >>> Click HERE to Watch <<<

If you haven’t heard of John before, he’s a best selling author and trader with over 25 years’ experience. He’s developed a world wide reputation for catching explosive trends in stocks, options, and even futures, too.

So I hope you attend on September 6th, 2016 at 7:00 PM Central for a special webinar called, “Hunting for Tops and Bottoms – Low Risk Setups for Trading Precise Turning Points in Any Market”.

Here’s just some of what you’ll learn….

  *  A simple 3 step process to identify major market turning points in any market

  *  How to find low risk, high probability trades in today’s volatile market conditions

  *  Why it’s finally possible to catch tops and bottoms in real time on almost any chart

  *  Why these ‘Bold and Beautiful’ reversal trades can be safer than ‘comfortable’ trades

  *  How to avoid getting suckered into the costly traps that most traders fall into

  *  How to adapt your trades automatically for choppy conditions and big trends

  *  How to know when a support or resistance level is likely to hold or not

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

I’m looking forward to this special event and I expect I’ll be taking a lot of notes, too. There may not be a replay and this event will almost certainly fill to capacity – so register now and be sure to show up a few minutes early. Unless you’ve already mastered trading these volatile swings, this could be the most important training you attend this year.

To claim your spot just Click HERE

See you next Tuesday,
Ray @ the Crude Oil Trader

P.S.   If you have not downloaded John’s free eBook do it asap….Just Click Here

Stock Trkr
Will The Bubble Pop Regardless if the Fed Never Raises Rates?

The current overall SPX pattern is a broadening top, which is usually a very reliable pattern. The market continues to look as though it wants to go even lower. The momentum shift, which I have been expecting, has been slow to start, however one should be prepared for this occurrence ahead of time. Nevertheless, the large divergences which I have been viewing, in my proprietary oscillators, are most real, and, once the selling starts, the momentum should quickly move to the downside.

The current market is being supported by a lack of sellers more so than aggressive buying. With investors still thinking that there is no other place to store their money, they appear to be content with leaving their money with risk on assets within a market that is pushing to all time highs. This type of mentality usually leads to large losses rather than big gains. There isn’t any real opportunity for growth in the SPX that I can see right now.

Dow Theory: Market Indexes Must Confirm Each Other

The Dow Theory was formulated from a series of Wall Street Journal editorials which were authored by Charles H. Dow from 1900 until the time of his death in 1902. These editorials reflected Dow’s beliefs regarding how the stock market behaved and how the market could be used to measure the health of the business environment.

Dow first used his theory to create the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Rail Index (now Transportation Index), which were originally compiled by Dow for TheWall Street Journal. Dow created these indexes because he felt they were an accurate reflection of the business conditions within the economy, seeing as they covered two major economic segments: industrial and rail (transportation). While these indexes have changed, over the last 100 years, the theory still applies to current market indexes.


Market indexes must confirm one another. In other words, a major reversal from a bull or bear market cannot be signaled unless both indexes (generally the Dow Industrial and Transports Averages) are in agreement. Currently, They are DIVERGING, issuing MAJOR NON-CONFIRMATION HIGH the Dow Jones Industrial average. If one couples this with the volatility index, this is a warning sign and a recipe for disaster.

chart 1

The FEDs’ monetary policy over the last eight years has led to unproductive and reckless corporate behavior. The chart below shows U.S. non financials’ year on year change in net debt versus operating cash flow as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITA).

Chart 2
The growth in operating cash flow peaked five years ago and has turned negative year over year. Net debt has continued to rise, which is not good for companies.

This has never before occurred in the post World War II period. In the cycle preceding the Great Recession, the peaks had been pretty much coincidental. Even during that cycle, they only diverged for two years, and by the time EBITA turned negative, year over year, as it has today, growth in net debt had been declining for over two years. Again, the current 5 year divergence is unprecedented in financial history. Today, most of that debt is used for financial engineering, as opposed to productive investments. In 2012, buybacks and M&A were $1.25 trillion, while all R&D and office equipment spending were $1.55 trillion. As valuations rose, since that time, R&D and office equipment grew by only $250 billion, but financial engineering grew by $750 billion, or three times this!

You can only live on your seed corn for so long. Despite there being no increase in their interest costs while growing their net borrowing by $1.7 trillion, the profit shares of the corporate sector peaked in 2012. The corporate sector, today, is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings manipulation management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins and growing debt levels.

Conclusion:

In short, I continue to pound on the table to help keep you and fellow investors aware that something bad, financially, is going to take place – huge events like the tech bubble, the housing collapse a few years back, and now national financial instability. Experts saw all these events coming months and, in some cases, years in advance. Big things typically don’t happen fast, but once the momentum changes direction you better be ready for some life changing events and a change in the financial market place.

Follow my analysis in real time, swing trades, and even my long term investment positions so you can survive from the financial storm The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
The Financial Winter is Nearing
Weathering Out Winter

Nature functions in cycles. Each 24 hour period can be divided into smaller cycles of morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The whole year can be divided into seasonal cycles. Similarly, one’s life can also be divided into cycles. Cycles are abundant in nature – we just have to spot them, understand them, and be prepared for them, because they happen whether we like it or not. Likewise, economic experts have noticed that the world also follows different cycles. An important pioneer in this field was the Russian social economist, Nikolai Kondratiev, also called Nikolai Kondratieff, a relatively unknown genius.

Who Is Kondratiev?
Geniuses have been known to defend their principles and beliefs, even at the cost of losing their lives; they may die but their legacy lives on, as did Kondratiev. He was an economist who laid down his life defending his beliefs. He was the founding director of the Institute of Conjuncture, a famous research institution, which was located in Moscow. He devised a five year plan for the development of agriculture in Russia from 1923-1925.

His book, “The Major Economic Cycles,” was published 1925, in which his policies were in stark contrast to that of Stalin’s. As a result of this, Kondratiev was arrested in 1930 and given a prison sentence. This sentence was reviewed, and, consequently, he was executed in 1938. What a tragic loss of such a genius at only 42 years of age. He was executed because his research proved him right and Stalin wrong! Nonetheless, his legacy lives on and, in 1939 Joseph Schumpeter named the waves Kondratiev Waves, also known as K-Waves.

What Are Kondratiev Waves?
Investopedia defines the Kondratieff Wave as, “A long term cycle present in capitalist economies that represents long term, high growth and low growth economic periods.” The initial study by Kondratiev was based on the European agricultural commodity and copper prices. He noticed this period of evolution and self correction in the economic activity of the capitalist nations and felt it was important to document.
Chart 1 CNA

These waves are long cycles, lasting 50-60 years and consisting of various phases that are repetitive in nature. They are divided into four primary cycles:

Spring Inflationary growth phase: The first wave starts after a depressed economic state. With growth comes inflation. This phase sees stable prices, stable interest rates and a rising stock market, which is led by strong corporate profits and technological innovations. This phase generally lasts for 25 years.

Summer Stagflation (Recession): This phase witnesses wars such as the War of 1812, the Civil War, the World Wars and the Vietnam War. War leads to a shortage of resources, which leads to rising prices, rising interest rates and higher debt, and because of these factors, companies’ profits decline.

Autumn Deflationary Growth (Plateau period): After the end of war, people want economic stability. While the economy sees growth in selective sectors, this period also witnesses social and technological innovations. Prices fall and interest rates are low, which leads to higher debt and consumption. At the same time, companies’ profits rise, resulting in a strong stock market. All of these excesses end with a major speculative bubble.

Winter Depression: This is a period of correcting the excesses of the past and preparing the foundation for future growth. Prices fall, profits decline and stock markets correct to the downside. However, this period also refines the technologies of the past with innovation, making it cheaper and more available for the masses. Accuracy Of The Cycle Over The Last 200 Years

The K-Waves have stood the test of time. They have correctly identified various periods of important economic activity within the past 200 years. The chart below outlines its accuracy.

Very few cycles in history are as accurate as the Kondratiev waves.
Chart 2 CNA

Criticism Of The Kondratiev Waves
No principle in the world is left unchallenged. Similarly, there are a few critics of the K-Waves who consider it useful only for the pre-WWII era. They believe that the current monetary tools, which are at the disposal of the monetary agencies, can alter the performance of these waves. There is also a difference of opinion regarding the timing of the start of the waves.

The Wave is Being Pushed Ahead But the Mood Confirms a Kondratiev Winter

Chart 3 CNA
Chart 4 CNA

A closer study reveals that the cycles are being pushed forward temporarily. Any intervention in the natural cycle unleashes the wrath of nature, and the current phase of economic excess will also end in a similar correction. The K-Wave winter cycle that started in 2000 was aligned with the dot-com bubble.

The current stock market rise is fueled by the easy monetary policy of the global central banks. Barring a small period of time from 2005-2007 when the mood of the public was optimistic, the winter had been spent with people in a depressed social mood. The stock market rally from 2009-2015 will be perceived as the most hated rally and the one most laden with fear.

Every dip of a few hundred points in the stock market starts with a comparison to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. The mood exudes fear and disbelief that the efforts of the central banks have not been successful and are unable to thwart off the winter, as predicted by the K-Waves. The winter is here and is reflected in the depressed social mood.

How To Weather Out Brutal Winter
In the last phase of the winter cycle, from 2016-2020, which is likely to test us, the stock market top is in place. Global economic activity has peaked, terrorism further threatens our lives, geopolitical risks have risen, the current levels of debt across the developed world are unmanageable, and a legitimate threat of a currency war occurring will all end with the “The Great Reset.” Gold will be likely to perform better during this winter cycle. Get in love with the yellow metal; it’s the blanket which will help you withstand the winter.

Conclusion
Cycles are generally repetitive forces that give us an insight into the future so we can be prepared to face it and prosper. Without excessive intervention, nature is very forgiving while correcting the excesses. But if one meddles with nature, it can be merciless during the correction. The current economic condition will end with yet another reset in the financial markets. Prices will not rise forever, and a correction will take hold eventually. Until then, we follow and trade accordingly. I will suggest the necessary steps to avoid losses and prosper from market turmoil when it unfolds.

Follow my analysis at:  The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
It Can’t Wait Any Longer – It’s Deja Vu in the Markets

The stock market tends to repeat itself on a regular basis. Why? Because it moves mainly based on the emotions of market participants, with the exception of extreme times when the masses are moving the market with extreme fear or greed, at which point they are flooding the market with buy or sell orders to create a final pop or drop in the market just before a major market reversal.

As with everything in the universe, everything moves in cycles, periods of expansion and contraction, and there are regular wave like patterns that happen on a regular basis no matter the time frame one is reviewing on a stock chart.

Here are three charts, each showing a similar price pattern of extreme washout lows, followed by roughly a 1 1/2 month rally taking investors on a roller coaster ride from fear and complete panic to greedy “know it alls”. In short [no pun intended] U.S. large cap stocks look and feel toppy here. I feel a correction is likely to take place any day now, and the big question is “how much will the stock market pullback? Will it be another 4-5% correction similar to the chart examples above? Or will it be something larger 8-15% correction?

Chris Vermeulen


Get my Daily Newsletter and Trade Signals Right Here



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Why These Huge Bank Stocks Could Go to Zero

By Justin Spittler

Europe’s banking system looks like it’s about to implode. As you probably know, Europe has serious problems right now. Its economy is growing at its slowest pace in decades. Policymakers are now more desperate than ever and are on the verge of introducing more “stimulus” measures. And Great Britain just voted to leave the European Union (EU).

These are all major concerns. But Europe’s biggest problem is its banking system. Over the past year, the Euro STOXX Banks Index, which tracks Europe’s biggest banks, has plummeted 46%. Deutsche Bank (DB) and Credit Suisse (CS), two of Europe’s most important banks, are down 63%. Both are trading at all time lows. We’ve warned you to stay away from these stocks. As we explained two weeks ago, Europe’s banking system is a complete disaster.

And it’s only getting worse by the day..…

European bank stocks have crashed over the past couple days. Yesterday, every major European bank stock ended the day down. Several fell more than 5%. A few plunged more than 10%. These are giant declines. Remember, these banks are the pillars of Europe’s financial system. Today, we’ll explain why this banking crisis could reach you even if you don’t live in Europe. But first, let’s look at why European bank stocks are crashing.

Europe’s banking system has major problems..…
Europe’s economy is barely growing. And negative interest rates are killing European banks. Regular readers know negative rates are a radical government policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) introduced them in 2014, thinking they would “stimulate” Europe’s economy. You see, negative rates basically turn your bank account upside down.

Instead of earning interest on your money in the bank, you pay the bank to hold your money. The geniuses at the ECB thought they could force people to spend more money by “taxing” their savings. But Europeans aren’t spending more money right now. They’re pulling cash out of the banking system and sticking it under their mattresses…where negative rates can’t get to it.

Negative rates are also eating into European bank profits…
Today, the ECB’s key interest rate is at -0.4%. This means European banks must pay €4 for every €1,000 they keep with the ECB. That might not sound like much. But it’s a big problem for European banks that oversee trillions of euros. According to Bank of America (BAC), European banks could lose as much as €20 billion per year by 2018 if the ECB keeps rates where they are.

The Euro STOXX Banks Index plunged 2.8% on Monday..…
Yesterday, it fell another 4.9%. The selloff hit everywhere from Frankfurt to Milan. Spanish banking giant Santander closed the day down 5%. The Bank of Ireland fell 8%. And Commerzbank AG, one of Germany’s biggest lenders, fell 9% to a record low. Commerzbank’s stock plunged after it said negative rates were eating into its profits.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse fell 3.7% and 4.7%, respectively. Investors dumped these stocks after learning that both are going to be dropped from the Euro STOXX 50 index, Europe’s version of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Italian stocks fell even harder yesterday..…
UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank, fell 7% before trading on its stock was halted. Regulators stopped the stock from trading due to “concerns about its bad loan portfolio.” The stock has plunged 72% over the past year. Bank Popolare di Milano, another large Italian bank, fell 10%. And Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s third biggest bank, plummeted 16%. Monte Paschi plunged after a banking watchdog said it was in the worst shape of all European banks. It’s down 85% over the past year.

Italy is ground zero of Europe’s banking crisis..…
Right now, Italy’s banks are sitting on about €360 billion in “bad” loans, or loans that trade for less than book value. That’s almost twice as many bad loans as Italian banks had in 2010. According to the Financial Times, bad loans now account for 18% of all of Italy’s loans. That’s more than four times as many bad loans as U.S. banks had during the worst of the 2008–2009 financial crisis.

Policymakers are scrambling to contain the crisis..…
Last month, the Italian government said it may pump €40 billion into its banking system to keep it from collapsing. A couple weeks later, Mario Draghi, who runs the ECB, said he would support a public bailout of Italy’s banking system. That’s when the government gives troubled banks money and makes taxpayers pay for it.

We said these emergency measures wouldn’t fix any of Italy’s problems. At best, they’ll buy the government time. Unfortunately, policymakers will almost certainly “do something” if Europe’s banking system continues to unravel.

The ECB could cut rates again, which would only make it harder for European banks to make money. It could also launch more quantitative easing (QE). That’s when a central bank creates money from nothing and pumps it into the financial system. Right now, the ECB is already “printing” €80 billion each month. But again, this hasn’t helped Europe’s stagnant economy one bit.

Whatever the ECB does next, you can bet it will only make things worse..…
As we’ve shown you many times, governments don’t fix problems. They only create them or make problems worse. If you understand this, you can make a lot of money betting that governments will do the wrong thing.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey explains:

The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically.
The beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by various puppeteers. But while it’s often hard to predict price movements in the short term, the long term is a near certainty. You can bet confidently on the end results of chronic government monetary stupidity.

According to Doug, gold is the #1 way to protect yourself from government stupidity..…
That’s because gold is real money. It’s protected wealth for centuries because it’s unlike any other asset. It’s durable, easily divisible, and easy to transport. Unlike paper money, gold doesn’t lose value when the government prints money or uses negative interest rates.

These stupid and reckless actions push investors into gold. They can cause the price of gold to soar. This year, gold is up 27%. It’s trading at the highest level since 2014. But Doug says it could go much higher in the coming years. If Europe’s banking system continues to unravel, investors will panic. Fear could spread across the world like a wildfire. And gold, the ultimate safe haven, could shoot to the moon.
If you do one thing to protect yourself, own physical gold.

We also encourage you to watch this short video presentation.
It talks about a crisis that’s been brewing since the last financial crisis—one that’s currently being fueled by government stupidity. The bad news is that we’re already in the early stages. The good news is that you still have time to seek shelter. You can learn about this coming crisis and how to protect yourself by watching this free video. We encourage all of our readers to do so. It’s one of the most important warnings we’ve ever issued. Click here to watch it.

Chart of the Day

Deutsche Bank’s stock is in free fall. You can see in today’s chart that Deutsche Bank has plummeted 75% since 2014. Yesterday, it hit a new all time low. If Deutsche Bank keeps falling, investors could lose faith in the financial system. And a panic could follow. At least, that’s what Jeffrey Gundlach thinks.

Regular readers know Gundlach is one of the world’s top investors. His firm, DoubleLine Capital, manages about $100 billion. Many investors call him the “Bond King,” a title that PIMCO founder Bill Gross held for years. Like us, Gundlach thinks Europe’s banking system is in serious trouble. And like us, he thinks European policymakers will spring into action if things start to get ugly. Reuters reported last month:

“Banks are dying and policymakers don’t know what to do,” Gundlach said. “Watch Deutsche Bank shares go to single digits and people will start to panic… you’ll see someone say, ‘Someone is going to have to do something’.”

Right now, Deutsche Bank is trading under $13. Less than three years ago, it traded close to $50. If Europe’s bank stocks continue to plunge, the ECB will likely “double down” on its easy money policies. This won’t repair Europe’s economy… It will destroy the euro, the currency that the ECB is supposed to defend.
This is why it’s so important that you “crash proof” your wealth today. Click here to learn how.

The article Why These Huge Bank Stocks Could Go to Zero was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Get our latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
How to Profit From These Massive, Brexit Induced Trends

By Justin Spittler

This has the makings of a classic speculative opportunity—one where politically caused distortions are liquidated and prices readjust. But a word of caution. It’s going to take place within the context of the Greater Depression. And, as Richard Russell, who lived through the last depression, observed: In a depression, nobody wins. The winner is just the person who loses the least.

The EU will disintegrate. It never made sense from the beginning to try to get Swedes to live by the same rules as Sicilians or Germans by the same rules as Portuguese. Not to mention that the rules are entirely arbitrary. Worse, almost all the rules are economic in nature, with legislated winners and losers. Deals like that always lead to resentment, among both the winners and the losers.

In addition to this, the EU is very problematical when it comes to immigrants. There will be more migrants trying to settle in Europe. Why? Because the Muslim world, the swath of countries extending all across northern Africa, through the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Far East, is likely to become increasingly unstable. The EU, as a very politically correct organization is loathe to turn them away. However, once they’re within Schengen, the migrants can travel anywhere. Perhaps where welfare benefits are best and where other migrants are gathering. Remember, when times get tough, both politicians and the capite censi look for someone to blame.

How to profit from this? Most people don’t think the EU will collapse just because Britain (which has always been closer to the U.S. than the Continent anyway) has left. They’re wrong. For one thing, although Brussels won’t become a ghost town, it’s going to lose scores of thousands of highly paid Eurocrats and their minions. I recall that property there was some of the cheapest in Europe in the early ’80s, it’s going to return to that status. We’ll look for a REIT to sell short, specializing in the Brussels market.

It will accelerate the disintegration of nation-states everywhere. 

There are about 200 nation-states in the world. The international “elite,” the “intelligentsia,” the members of the Deep State everywhere, and organizations like the EU in Brussels, would like to see a much smaller number of more powerful states. Orwell anticipated just three mega-states in his dystopia. But the actual trend is in the opposite direction.

It’s not just the UK seceding from the EU, but Scotland from the UK. The Basques and Catalans may eventually secede from Spain. Belgium, a totally artificial country, may eventually break up into Flemish-speaking Flanders and French speaking Wallonia. France has half a dozen secession movements. Italy was only unified into its present form from scores of principalities, duchies, and baronies in 1871 by Garibaldi. It was the same with Germany until Bismarck in 1871. 

The break-up of the USSR in 1990 into 13 smaller states was a good start, but Russia itself is a small empire with dozens of distinct ethnic and linguistic groups. You will rarely hear about this in the mass media, but there are dozens of secession movements throughout Europe. That’s one more reason why (in addition to the interest rate risk and the inflation risk, which are both substantial) you should stay away from long-term government bonds.

The euro will cease to exist…..
The Esperanto currency was doomed from the beginning. It was not just an “IOU nothing,” like the U.S. dollar, but a “Who owes you nothing” since it’s not even backed by a specific government’s taxing power. How to profit? I’ve put on long-term futures contracts, long the British pound vs. short the euro. My rationale is simple. Britain will benefit from exiting the EU, attracting capital and strengthening the pound—which is down 11% against the euro since Brexit. The euro, meanwhile, will approach its intrinsic value at an accelerating rate.

A truly major banking crisis…..
Much worse than that of 2007–2009. Governments, who are all bankrupt, borrow money from commercial banks. Commercial banks have lent it to them because they believe it’s a risk free loan. Governments encourage them to lend recklessly, hoping that will jump-start sluggish economies. Central banks, which are the arms of their governments, have taken interest rates to zero and below for that reason and to make it easier for governments to service their debt. This policy has encouraged businesses to take on debt.

It’s an idiotic and reckless experiment that will end—likely in this cycle—with bankrupt central banks and governments bailing out bankrupt commercial banks and businesses. Just the way they did in 2007–2009. Except this time, the situation is much more serious. How to profit? Don’t own European companies, stocks or bonds, and banks in particular. In fact, even though they’re already down considerably, they’re going lower and are excellent candidates for short sales, or the sale of naked calls.

A panic into gold….. 
You’ve heard this story many times before here. But it’s truer than ever as we approach a genuine crisis. There are no stable paper currencies anywhere in the world. The dollar has been strong only because it’s liquid. Liquidity is good, but here, we’re talking about liquid like nitroglycerin. Hedge funds will start buying gold in size. As will central banks, who don’t want to hold each other’s paper. As will individual investors. Right now, few people even think about gold, much less understand it. How to profit? Buy gold. I expect we’ll see it well over $5,000 this cycle. Silver should do even better in relative terms. And gold stocks have explosive upside.

An exodus of capital and people from Europe…..
to parts of Latin America, plus to the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is, obviously, bad for Europe and good for the recipient countries. In recent years, I might not have included Latin America, but things have changed. Argentina and Colombia are liberalizing economically. The continent isn’t involved in any entangling alliances, isn’t on the migration highway, and has low costs. Why a wealthy European would stay in that stagnant and unstable continent when he could live better, and mostly tax free, at a fraction of the cost in Argentina is a mystery to me.

Chaos in Africa….. 
Almost every country in Africa is an ex-European colony. Over the last 50 years, Europe, with the U.S. and now China, have shipped over a trillion dollars to the continent. Most of it has been recycled back to Europe by the African elites that stole it, and the rest has mostly been wasted. 

That flow is going to stop for a number of reasons, but among them is that it makes no sense in an “every-man for himself” world. At the same time, essentially all of the world’s population growth over the next couple of decades is going to come from sub Saharan Africa. It’s a nasty economic environment that’s a formula for conflict. 

Millions of Africans will want to emigrate, especially to the homelands of their ex-colonial masters in Europe. They won’t, however, be welcome. How might one take advantage of this? The higher population is going to put upward pressure on commodities, and the chaos is going to make their production much riskier in Africa.

In conclusion….. 
Brexit itself is likely to be good for Britain. And it augurs some big changes in the world at large. Don’t forget that it will all be in the context of both the Greater Depression and the accelerating and world-changing technological revolution I described last month. Our objective here remains to not only keep you advised of what’s happening, but help you profit from opportunities while avoiding major dangers.

Editor’s note: The biggest threat to your wealth right now isn’t an economic recession, a stock market crash, or even a global banking crisis. It’s something much bigger and far more dangerous. This short video explains more…

It explains how violent currency moves—like we’re seeing today—have preceded some of the worst financial disasters in history. By the end of the video, you’ll know why you can’t afford to ignore the warnings we’re seeing right now. You’ll learn how to protect yourself and profit from the coming crisis. Click here to watch this free video.

Get our latest FREE eBook “The Rebel’s Guide to Trading Options”….Just Click Here!

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Why This Stock Rally Won’t Last…And What You Need to Do With Your Money Today

By Justin Spittler

Silver is sending us an important warning. Yesterday, the price of silver closed at $20.30, its highest price since July 2014. Silver is now up 45% this year. That’s nearly eight times better than the S&P 500’s 5.9% return. And it’s almost double gold’s 25% gain this year. If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know silver is rallying for the same reason gold’s taken off. Investors are worried about the economy and financial system.

Like gold, silver is real money. It’s also a safe haven asset that investors buy when they’re nervous. Unlike gold, silver is an industrial metal. It goes into everything from batteries to solar panels. Because of this, it’s more sensitive to economic slowdowns. That’s why many folks think of silver as gold’s more volatile cousin.
Lately, silver has been acting more like a precious metal than an industrial metal. It’s soaring because the global economy is in serious trouble. Today, we’ll explain why silver is likely headed much higher. And we’ll show you the best way to profit from rising silver prices.

Silver has been in a bear market for the better part of the last five years..…
From April 2011 to December 2015, the price of silver plummeted 72%. This 56 month downturn was the longest silver bear market on record. As brutal as this bear market was, we knew it wouldn’t go on forever. That’s because silver, like other commodities, is cyclical. It experiences booms and busts. As you just saw, the losses in commodity bear markets can be huge. But the gains in commodity bull markets can be even bigger. During its 2008–2011 bull market, silver soared an incredible 441%. That’s why we watch commodities so closely. Every few years, they give you the chance to make huge gains in a short period of time.

On December 18, Casey Research founder Doug Casey said silver wouldn’t get much cheaper..…
Doug told Kitco, one of the world’s biggest precious metals retailers, that gold and silver were near a bottom:

My opinion is if it’s not the bottom, it’s close enough to the bottom. So, I have to be an aggressive buyer of both gold and silver at this point.

Doug’s call was dead on. Silver bottomed at $13.70 an ounce on December 17. That same day, gold bottomed at $1,051 an ounce. In other words, Doug was one day off from perfectly calling the bottom in gold and silver.

The price of silver has soared 49% since December..…
But it could head much higher in the coming years. Remember, silver soared 441% during its last bull market.
Silver is “cheap” too. It’s trading 58% below its 2011 high, even after this year’s monster rally. It’s also never been more important to own “real money.” That’s because it looks like the world is on the cusp of a major financial crisis. Doug explains:

Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

As longtime readers know, the last financial crisis caused the S&P 500 to plunge 57%. It sparked America’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. And it allowed the government to launch a series of radical “stimulus” measures, none which actually helped the economy.

BlackRock (BLK) sees tough times ahead too..…
BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager. It oversees $4.6 trillion. That’s more than the annual economic output of Japan, the world’s third biggest economy. BlackRock manages more money than Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC). This makes it one of the world’s most important financial institutions…and one that probably understands the global economy better than almost any other company on the planet. Like us, BlackRock’s chief investment strategist, Richard Turnill, thinks the next few years could be very difficult. CNBC reported on Monday:

“This feels more and more like we’re in an environment of low returns and high volatility for some time,” Richard Turnill said on “Squawk Box.” “The period of political [Brexit] uncertainty ahead of us isn’t going to last for weeks or quarters, but potentially for years,” he said.

According to BlackRock, the “Brexit” made the global economy more unstable..…
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know Great Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) on June 23. The Brexit, as folks are calling it, shook financial markets from Tokyo to New York. It erased more than $3 trillion from the global stock market in two days. 

Then, stocks started to rally. By this Tuesday, global stocks fully “recovered” from the Brexit bloodbath. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average even hit new all time highs this week.

Many investors took this as proof that the worst was over. We, on the other hand, reminded readers to not lose sight of the big picture. We explained that stocks were rallying because they’re the least bad place to put your money right now. We encouraged you to not “get sucked back into the stock market.”

Larry Fink doesn’t think U.S. stocks should be rallying either..…
Fink is the chairman and CEO of BlackRock. That makes him one of the most powerful people in the world.
Like us, Fink isn’t “buying” this stock rally. CNBC reported yesterday:

“I don’t think we have enough evidence to justify these levels in the equity market at this moment,” Fink said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

According to Fink, stocks are rallying for the wrong reasons:

He said the recent rally has been supported by institutional investors covering shorts, or bets that stocks would fall, and not individual investors feeling bullish.
“Since Brexit, we’ve seen ETF flows almost at record levels … $18 billion of inflows,” Fink said. “However, in the mutual fund area, we’re continuing to see outflows.”
What that tells you is retail investors are pulling out, he said. “You’re seeing institutions who were short going into Brexit … all now rushing in to recalibrate their portfolios.”

In other words, this rally could fizzle out any day.

We recommend you invest with great caution right now..…
If you still own stocks, consider selling your weakest positions. Get rid of your most expensive stocks. Only hang on to companies that you know can make money in a long economic downturn. We also encourage you to own gold. As we said earlier, it’s real money. It’s preserved wealth for centuries because it possesses a unique set of attributes: It’s durable, easy to transport, and easily divisible. You can take a gold coin anywhere in the world and folks will instantly recognize its value.

We recommend most folks to hold 10% to 15% of their wealth in gold. Once you own enough gold, consider putting money into silver. It could deliver even bigger gains than gold in the years to come. To learn why, watch this short video presentation. It explains why the biggest threat to your wealth right now isn’t an economic recession, a stock market crash, or even a global banking crisis.

It’s something much bigger and far more dangerous. The good news is that you can protect yourself from this coming crisis. Watch this free video to learn how.

REMINDER: Our friends at Bonner & Partners are holding a special training series..…  
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know part of our job is to share exciting opportunities with you when we hear about them. Today, we invite you to take part in a special training series hosted by Jeff Brown, editor of Exponential Tech Investor.

If you haven’t heard of Jeff, he’s an aerospace engineer, tech insider, and angel investor. His advisory, Exponential Tech Investor, focuses on young technology companies with big upside. For example, Jeff recommended an IT security company in October that’s already up 72%. Another one of Jeff’s picks has jumped 38% since February. And one is up 178% in less than a month.

In Jeff’s training series, he reveals his secret to making money in technology stocks. He also talks about a HUGE opportunity taking shape in the technology space.  Click here to sign up for Jeff’s training series.

It’s 100% free and will take up less than 15 minutes of your time. Click here to register.

Chart of the Day

Silver stocks just hit a new three year high. Today’s chart shows the performance of iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP), which tracks large silver miners. As regular readers know, silver stocks are leveraged to the price of silver. It doesn’t take a big jump by silver for them to skyrocket. This year, silver’s 45% jump caused SLVP to soar 171%. It’s now trading at its highest level since April 2013.

If you think gold and silver are headed much higher like we do, you could put some of your money into gold and silver stocks. According to Doug Casey, these stocks could enter a “super bubble” in the coming years. Keep in mind, these are some of the most volatile stocks on the planet. Many gold and silver stocks can swing 5% or more in a day. If you can stomach that kind of volatility, you could see huge returns in gold and silver stocks over the next few years.

Get our latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Why This Stock Rally Won’t Last…And What You Need to Do With Your Money Today

By Justin Spittler

Silver is sending us an important warning. Yesterday, the price of silver closed at $20.30, its highest price since July 2014. Silver is now up 45% this year. That’s nearly eight times better than the S&P 500’s 5.9% return. And it’s almost double gold’s 25% gain this year. If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know silver is rallying for the same reason gold’s taken off. Investors are worried about the economy and financial system.

Like gold, silver is real money. It’s also a safe haven asset that investors buy when they’re nervous. Unlike gold, silver is an industrial metal. It goes into everything from batteries to solar panels. Because of this, it’s more sensitive to economic slowdowns. That’s why many folks think of silver as gold’s more volatile cousin.
Lately, silver has been acting more like a precious metal than an industrial metal. It’s soaring because the global economy is in serious trouble. Today, we’ll explain why silver is likely headed much higher. And we’ll show you the best way to profit from rising silver prices.

Silver has been in a bear market for the better part of the last five years..…
From April 2011 to December 2015, the price of silver plummeted 72%. This 56 month downturn was the longest silver bear market on record. As brutal as this bear market was, we knew it wouldn’t go on forever. That’s because silver, like other commodities, is cyclical. It experiences booms and busts. As you just saw, the losses in commodity bear markets can be huge. But the gains in commodity bull markets can be even bigger. During its 2008–2011 bull market, silver soared an incredible 441%. That’s why we watch commodities so closely. Every few years, they give you the chance to make huge gains in a short period of time.

On December 18, Casey Research founder Doug Casey said silver wouldn’t get much cheaper..…
Doug told Kitco, one of the world’s biggest precious metals retailers, that gold and silver were near a bottom:

My opinion is if it’s not the bottom, it’s close enough to the bottom. So, I have to be an aggressive buyer of both gold and silver at this point.

Doug’s call was dead on. Silver bottomed at $13.70 an ounce on December 17. That same day, gold bottomed at $1,051 an ounce. In other words, Doug was one day off from perfectly calling the bottom in gold and silver.

The price of silver has soared 49% since December..…
But it could head much higher in the coming years. Remember, silver soared 441% during its last bull market.
Silver is “cheap” too. It’s trading 58% below its 2011 high, even after this year’s monster rally. It’s also never been more important to own “real money.” That’s because it looks like the world is on the cusp of a major financial crisis. Doug explains:

Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

As longtime readers know, the last financial crisis caused the S&P 500 to plunge 57%. It sparked America’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. And it allowed the government to launch a series of radical “stimulus” measures, none which actually helped the economy.

BlackRock (BLK) sees tough times ahead too..…
BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager. It oversees $4.6 trillion. That’s more than the annual economic output of Japan, the world’s third biggest economy. BlackRock manages more money than Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC). This makes it one of the world’s most important financial institutions…and one that probably understands the global economy better than almost any other company on the planet. Like us, BlackRock’s chief investment strategist, Richard Turnill, thinks the next few years could be very difficult. CNBC reported on Monday:

“This feels more and more like we’re in an environment of low returns and high volatility for some time,” Richard Turnill said on “Squawk Box.” “The period of political [Brexit] uncertainty ahead of us isn’t going to last for weeks or quarters, but potentially for years,” he said.

According to BlackRock, the “Brexit” made the global economy more unstable..…
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know Great Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) on June 23. The Brexit, as folks are calling it, shook financial markets from Tokyo to New York. It erased more than $3 trillion from the global stock market in two days. 

Then, stocks started to rally. By this Tuesday, global stocks fully “recovered” from the Brexit bloodbath. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average even hit new all time highs this week.

Many investors took this as proof that the worst was over. We, on the other hand, reminded readers to not lose sight of the big picture. We explained that stocks were rallying because they’re the least bad place to put your money right now. We encouraged you to not “get sucked back into the stock market.”

Larry Fink doesn’t think U.S. stocks should be rallying either..…
Fink is the chairman and CEO of BlackRock. That makes him one of the most powerful people in the world.
Like us, Fink isn’t “buying” this stock rally. CNBC reported yesterday:

“I don’t think we have enough evidence to justify these levels in the equity market at this moment,” Fink said Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

According to Fink, stocks are rallying for the wrong reasons:

He said the recent rally has been supported by institutional investors covering shorts, or bets that stocks would fall, and not individual investors feeling bullish.
“Since Brexit, we’ve seen ETF flows almost at record levels … $18 billion of inflows,” Fink said. “However, in the mutual fund area, we’re continuing to see outflows.”
What that tells you is retail investors are pulling out, he said. “You’re seeing institutions who were short going into Brexit … all now rushing in to recalibrate their portfolios.”

In other words, this rally could fizzle out any day.

We recommend you invest with great caution right now..…
If you still own stocks, consider selling your weakest positions. Get rid of your most expensive stocks. Only hang on to companies that you know can make money in a long economic downturn. We also encourage you to own gold. As we said earlier, it’s real money. It’s preserved wealth for centuries because it possesses a unique set of attributes: It’s durable, easy to transport, and easily divisible. You can take a gold coin anywhere in the world and folks will instantly recognize its value.

We recommend most folks to hold 10% to 15% of their wealth in gold. Once you own enough gold, consider putting money into silver. It could deliver even bigger gains than gold in the years to come. To learn why, watch this short video presentation. It explains why the biggest threat to your wealth right now isn’t an economic recession, a stock market crash, or even a global banking crisis.

It’s something much bigger and far more dangerous. The good news is that you can protect yourself from this coming crisis. Watch this free video to learn how.

REMINDER: Our friends at Bonner & Partners are holding a special training series..…  
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know part of our job is to share exciting opportunities with you when we hear about them. Today, we invite you to take part in a special training series hosted by Jeff Brown, editor of Exponential Tech Investor.

If you haven’t heard of Jeff, he’s an aerospace engineer, tech insider, and angel investor. His advisory, Exponential Tech Investor, focuses on young technology companies with big upside. For example, Jeff recommended an IT security company in October that’s already up 72%. Another one of Jeff’s picks has jumped 38% since February. And one is up 178% in less than a month.

In Jeff’s training series, he reveals his secret to making money in technology stocks. He also talks about a HUGE opportunity taking shape in the technology space.  Click here to sign up for Jeff’s training series.

It’s 100% free and will take up less than 15 minutes of your time. Click here to register.

Chart of the Day

Silver stocks just hit a new three year high. Today’s chart shows the performance of iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP), which tracks large silver miners. As regular readers know, silver stocks are leveraged to the price of silver. It doesn’t take a big jump by silver for them to skyrocket. This year, silver’s 45% jump caused SLVP to soar 171%. It’s now trading at its highest level since April 2013.

If you think gold and silver are headed much higher like we do, you could put some of your money into gold and silver stocks. According to Doug Casey, these stocks could enter a “super bubble” in the coming years. Keep in mind, these are some of the most volatile stocks on the planet. Many gold and silver stocks can swing 5% or more in a day. If you can stomach that kind of volatility, you could see huge returns in gold and silver stocks over the next few years.

Get our latest FREE eBook “Understanding Options”….Just Click Here!


Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Why relying on broker forecasts can only end in disappointment

In the final stages of campaigning for the EU referendum, the outcome was clearly going to be close. One group with a particularly keen interest in the result were the pollsters and bookies who played a role in forecasting it. On past form, the pollsters had a lot to prove after failing to predict the […]

Stock Trkr
Why relying on broker forecasts can only end in disappointment

In the final stages of campaigning for the EU referendum, the outcome was clearly going to be close. One group with a particularly keen interest in the result were the pollsters and bookies who played a role in forecasting it. On past form, the pollsters had a lot to prove after failing to predict the […]

Stock Trkr
Gold analysis for July 12 , 2016

Commodities Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index slides beneath rising… April 8, 2024 US 500 creates some downside recovery Oscillators indicate bearish correction…Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of… April 8, 2024 GBP/USDAnalysis:Since […]

Stock Trkr
Gold analysis for July 12 , 2016

Commodities Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index slides beneath rising… April 8, 2024 US 500 creates some downside recovery Oscillators indicate bearish correction…Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of… April 8, 2024 GBP/USDAnalysis:Since […]

Stock Trkr
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 12 – 2016

Wave summary: Elliott Wave Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index slides beneath rising… April 8, 2024 US 500 creates some downside recovery Oscillators indicate bearish correction…Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of… April […]

Stock Trkr
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 12 – 2016

Wave summary: Elliott Wave Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index slides beneath rising… April 8, 2024 US 500 creates some downside recovery Oscillators indicate bearish correction…Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of… April […]

Stock Trkr
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 12 – 2016

Wave summary: Elliott Wave Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index slides beneath rising… April 8, 2024 US 500 creates some downside recovery Oscillators indicate bearish correction…Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of… April […]

Stock Trkr
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 12 – 2016

Wave summary: Elliott Wave Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index slides beneath rising… April 8, 2024 US 500 creates some downside recovery Oscillators indicate bearish correction…Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of… April […]

Stock Trkr
Technical analysis of Gold for July 12, 2016

Gold price pulled back towards the short-term support level of $1,350. As long as the price stays above it we could see another move higher towards $1,400. Commodities Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index […]

Stock Trkr
Technical analysis of Gold for July 12, 2016

Gold price pulled back towards the short-term support level of $1,350. As long as the price stays above it we could see another move higher towards $1,400. Commodities Related Posts:EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 8 April 8, 2024 EUR/USDHigher TimeframesAt the end of last week, the market couldn’t…Technical Analysis – US 500 index […]

Stock Trkr