+500

Free Training Event with Hedge Fund Manager Teeka Tiwari

In a few days, a special free event is about to take place, and I’d like to invite you to be among the first to take part in it. Former Wall Street hedge fund manager Teeka Tiwari is holding a FREE investment event about how you can get started making serious money from cryptocurrencies, like BITCOIN

For the past 12 months, Teeka has been showing a small group of a few thousand regular people how to trade these “cryptos” for profit. He’s given them the chance to bank gains of 2,050% on May 24, 1,522% on August 8, and 14,354% on August 7 – and that’s just the beginning.

“$1,800 has grown to $29,000. My wife and I appreciate your wisdom more than you can imagine!” – David C.

“My original [investment] is now close to a 20 bagger. $600 going close to $10,000. Wow!” – Ron L.

“I was left nearly speechless last night when I discovered my $300 had grown to over $43,000. I have never heard of such gains in a short amount of time.” – Jon M.

But according to Teeka, the gains seen in cryptocurrencies is 2017 has just been the appetizer. In 2018, he believes there could be even more incredible investment opportunities.

That makes his event so special.

Teeka’s going to show you the exact strategy he’s used to spot all his biggest winners. And if you attend, you’ll have the chance to claim a portion of $1 million dollars in Bitcoin that he’s giving away.

Visit Here to Register for Free

Whether you’ve invested in Bitcoin before or you don’t know the first thing about it. This is a must attend event.

Among other things, Teeka – who’s traveled to more than 5 countries building relationships with the founders, CEOs, and investors behind some of the biggest cryptocurrency success stories of 2017 – will show you the exact strategy he’s used to help everyday people get the chance to capture returns of 582% in 8 months… 1,190% in 3 months… 1,241% in 6 months… 2,050% in 13 months… and even 14,354% in 6 months.

Here’s what you’ll get if you sign up right now….

*  Teeka’s 7 part Cryptocurrency Academy video training series – this is Teeka’s guide for how to get started in cryptocurrencies, even if you’ve never heard of Bitcoin before (the first special report will be sent to your inbox immediately after you register here.)

*  A complete breakdown of Teeka’s investment strategy (the exact strategy that’s helped him spot multiple 1,000%-plus winners)

*  A live Q&A session with Teeka – where he’ll answer your most burning questions (keep in mind, he can’t give personalized advice).

A 90 minute emergency briefing: Teeka and a special mystery guest – one of the co-founders of the second most popular cryptocurrency on the market – will reveal why cryptocurrencies could experience another major breakout, beginning January 2018.

Plus, you’ll have the chance to claim free Bitcoin during our $1 million dollar Bitcoin giveaway. That’s right, Teeka’s so bullish on Bitcoin that he’s buying $1 million (yes, $1,000,000) dollars’ worth of Bitcoin and giving it away during his emergency briefing. When you attend the event, you’ll have the chance to claim a portion of this money.

And those are just some of the things you’ll get for participating.

There’s no cost to attend, but everything will only be available for a limited time.

Simply Visit Here Now to Get Started

It costs you nothing to take his 7 Part Crypto Academy Video Training, or his free emergency briefing on Thursday, November 2nd. So please, don’t hesitate to Register. I already have.

See you in the Cryptocurrency Market!
Ray @ the Crude Oil Trader

Stock Trkr
Europe Is About To Get Sweeter

From a sugar price point of view, what does the lift in sugar quotas mean? Phil Carr, co-founder, The GOLD & Silver Club You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#222031 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en su idioma: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvspanish […]

Stock Trkr
Engineering Regular Income and Profits from Your Trading

Today’s article is from my trading partner, Brian McAboy of Inside Out Trading.  Brian is a retired engineer and has a rather unconventional yet very effective approach to helping people become successful traders.  He’s been helping traders f…

Stock Trkr
Silver Has Cumulated Physical Deficits Of Over 1.1 Bio. Ounces

Silver is on the run and the edge to really move ahead. We are missing over 1.1 Bio. ounces physical over the last 10 years. Where are they? Jochen Staiger, CEO & Founder, Swiss Resource Capital AG. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#219855 Смотрите Dukascopy […]

Stock Trkr
Gold In Ghana. Gold 2017. Cardinal Resources

Cardinal Resources works rapid and successfully on their projects in Ghana. The company has an excellent strong shareholder base and 28 Mio. AUD cash in the bank plus 4 Mio. ounces GOLD in resources so far, Jochen Staiger, CEO & Founder, Swiss Resource Capital AG. You can view this video and the full video archive […]

Stock Trkr
Hidden Gems Shows A Foreboding Future

A quick look at any of the US majors will show most investors that the markets have recently been pushing upward towards new all time highs. These traditional market instruments can be misleading at times when relating the actual underlying technical and fundamental price activities. Today, we are going to explore some research using our custom index instruments that we use to gauge and relate more of the underlying market price action.

What if we told you to prepare for a potentially massive price swing over the next few months? What if we told you that the US and Global markets are setting up for what could be the “October Surprise of 2017” and very few analysts have identified this trigger yet? Michael Bloomberg recently stated “I cannot for the life of me understand why the market keeps going up”. Want to know why this perception continues and what the underlying factors of market price activity are really telling technicians?

At ATP we provide full time dedicated research and trading signal solution for professional and active traders. Our research team has dedicated thousands or hours into developing a series of specialized modeling systems and analysis tools to assist us in finding successful trading opportunities as well as key market fundamentals. In the recent past, we have accurately predicted multiple VIX Spikes, in some cases to the exact day, and market signals that have proven to be great successes for our clients. Today, we’re going to share with you something that you may choose to believe or not – but within 60 days, we believe you’ll be searching the internet to find this article again knowing ATP (Active Trading Partners) accurately predicted one of the biggest moves of the 21st century. Are you ready?

Let’s start with the SPY. From the visual analysis of the chart, below, it would be difficult for anyone to clearly see the fragility of the US or Global markets. This chart is showing a clearly bullish trend with the perception that continued higher highs should prevail.

Additionally, when we review the QQQ we see a similar picture. Although the volatility is typically greater in the NASDAQ vs. the S&P, the QQQ chart presents a similar picture. Strong upward price activity in addition to historically consistent price advances. What could go wrong with these pictures – right? The markets are stronger than ever and as we’ve all heard “it’s different this time”.

Most readers are probably saying “yea, we’ve heard it before and we know – buy the dips”.

Recently, we shared some research with you regarding longer term time/price cycles (3/7/10 year cycles) and prior to that, we’ve been warning of a Sept 28~29, 2017 VIX Spike that could be massive and a “game changer” in terms of trend. We’ve been warning our members that this setup in price is leading us to be very cautious regarding new trading signals as volatility should continue to wane prior to this VIX Spike and market trends may be muted and short lived. We’ve still made a few calls for our clients, but we’ve tried to be very cautious in terms of timing and objectives.

Right now, the timing could not be any better to share this message with you and to “make it public” that we are making this prediction. A number of factors are lining up that may create a massive price correction in the near future and we want to help you protect your investments and learn to profit from this move and other future moves. So, as you read this article, it really does not matter if you believe our analysis or not – the proof will become evident (or not) within less than 60 days based on our research. One way or another, we will be proven correct or incorrect by the markets.

Over the past 6+ years, capital has circled the globe over and over attempting to find suitable ROI. It is our belief that this capital has rooted into investment vehicles that are capable of producing relatively secure and consistent returns based on the global economy continuing without any type of adverse event. In other words, global capital is rather stable right now in terms of sourcing ROI and capital deployment throughout the globe. It would take a relatively massive event to disrupt this capital process at the moment.

Asia/China are pushing the upper bounds of a rather wide trading channel and price action is setting up like the SPY and QQQ charts, above. A clear upper boundary is evident as well as our custom vibrational/frequency analysis arcs that are warning us of a potential change in price trend. You can see from the Red Arrow we’ve drawn, any attempt to retest the channel lows would equate to an 8% decrease in current prices.

Still, there is more evidence that we are setting up for a potentially massive global price move. The metals markets are the “fear/greed” gauge of the planet (or at least they have been for hundreds of years). When the metals spike higher, fear is entering the markets and investors avoid share price risks. When the metals trail lower, greed is entering the markets and investors chase share price value.

Without going into too much detail, this custom metals chart should tell you all you need to know. Our analysis is that we are nearing the completion of Wave C within an initial Wave 1 (bottom formation) from the lows in Dec 2016. Our prediction is that the completion of Wave #5 will end somewhere above the $56 level on this chart (> 20%+ from current levels). The completion of this Wave #5 will lead to the creation of a quick corrective wave, followed by a larger and more aggressive upward expansion wave that could quickly take out the $75~95 levels. Quite possibly before the end of Q1 2018.

We’ve termed this move the “Rip your face off Metals Rally”. You can see from this metals chart that we have identified multiple cycle and vibrational/frequency cycles that are lining up between now and the end of 2017. It is critical to understand the in order for this move to happen, a great deal of fear needs to reenter the global markets. What would cause that to happen??

Now for the “Hidden Gem”….

We’ve presented some interesting and, we believe, accurate market Technical Analysis. We’ve also been presenting previous research regarding our VIX Spikes and other analysis that has been accurate and timely. Currently, our next VIX Spike projection is Sept 28~29, 2017. We believe this VIX Spike could be much larger than the last spike highs and could lead to, or correlate with, a disruptive market event. We have ideas of what that event might be like, but we don’t know exactly what will happen at this time or if the event will even become evident in early October 2017. All we do know is the following….

The Head-n-Shoulders pattern we first predicted back in June/July of this year has nearly completed and we have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will be retested. This is the Hidden Gem. This is our custom US Index that we use to filter out the noise of price activity and to more clearly identify underlying technical and price pattern formations. You saw from the earlier charts that the Head n Shoulders pattern was not clearly visible on the SPY or QQQ charts – but on THIS chart, you can’t miss it.

It is a little tough to see on this small chart but, one can see the correlation of our cycle analysis, the key dates of September 28~29 aligning perfectly with vibration/frequency cycles originating from the start of the “head” formation. We have only about 10~14 trading days before the Neck Line will likely be retested and, should it fail, we could see a massive price move to the downside.

What you should expect over the next 10~14 trading days is simple to understand.

Expect continued price volatility and expanded rotation in the US majors.

  • Expect the VIX to stay below 10.00 for only a day or two longer before hinting at a bigger spike move (meaning moving above 10 or 11 as a primer)
  • Expect the metals markets to form a potential bottom pattern and begin to inch higher as fear reenters the markets _ Expect certain sectors to show signs of weakness prior to this move (possibly technology, healthcare, bio-tech, financials, lending)
  • Expect the US majors to appear to “dip” within a 2~4% range and expect the news cycles to continue the “buy the dip” mantra.

The real key to all of this is what happens AFTER October 1st and for the next 30~60 days after. This event will play out as a massive event or a non event. What we do know is that this event has been setting up for over 5 months and has played out almost exactly as we have predicted. Now, we are 10+ days away from a critical event horizon and we are alerting you well in advance that it is, possibly, going to be a bigger event.

Now, I urge all of you to visit our website to learn more about what we do and how we provide this type of advanced analysis and research for our clients. We also provide clear and timely trading signals to our clients to assist them in finding profitable trading opportunities based on our research. Our team of dedicated analysts and researchers do our best to bring you the best, most accurate and advanced research we can deliver. The fact that we called this Head-n-Shoulders formation back in June/July and called multiple VIX Spike events should be enough evidence to consider this call at least a strong possibility.

If you want to take full advantage of the markets to profit from these moves, then join us today here at the Active Trading Partners and become a member.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Oil Market Optimistic

Oil prices unchanged, OPEC happy with current production cut and US Crude production looking positive. Spencer Welch from IHS Markit gives his assessment of the current state of the oil market. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#221581 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: […]

Stock Trkr
Gold & Energy Price Movements

Will growing demand for Crude and hurricanes in the US drive up prices in the US energy sector? Kevin Kerr, Kerr Trading International You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#221128 Смотрите Dukascopy TV на вашем языке: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvrussian 用您的语言观看杜高斯贝电视: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvchinese Miren Dukascopy TV en su idioma: http://www.youtube.com/user/dukascopytvspanish […]

Stock Trkr
Positioning for “Swan Type” Disasters

Recently, the US, China and portions of SE Asia have been hit by massive hurricanes and cyclones. As investors, it is often difficult to understand the mechanics of how these types of disasters result in opportunities while thousands are attempting to rebuild and survive. Yet, as investors, it is our job to prepare for these outcomes and attempt to foresee risk and opportunities.

Over the weekend, we expecting Hurricane Irma to hit Florida and most of the South US, one should be asking the question, “How will this drive the markets over the next few weeks/months?” Let’s explore this question with some hard data and analysis.
US Population Density
The population in the South Eastern US is rather dense. There are also a number of key economic locations that could be disrupted if the storms starts to drift eastward.
Economic Output by Region

Consider that the South Eastern US represents a minimum of 1.6~2.2% annual GDP output.
When one considers the amount of destruction, disruption and economic decline that could be the immediate result of disasters such as hurricanes, one has to think about how the global markets will react to this level and type of event?
In comparison to the other geographic regions of the US, the South Eastern portion of the US still represents a substantially large portion of annual economic output/activity.
A massive disruption as well as asset revaluation event could cause a “blip” in the US GDP representing at least 2~3 tenths of a percent and could result in hundreds of billions in actual losses, economic output losses and infrastructure destruction.
Because of this, and other potential future events, we are concerned that the US markets may be headed for a correction event or bear market event in the near future. In the past, we have attempted to illustrate this potential by highlighting cycle events, key market breakouts and trends and, most recently, highlighted the 3-7-10 year cycle structures that play out in all markets. Now, we are setting up for an event that may unfold over the next 30~90 days as a “swan type event” that few are preparing for.
The US Dollar continues to slide. Our analysis showed that $92 was key support. Recently this level has been broken and we are concerned that the US Dollar may continue to slide lower. Overall, in terms of global competition, this may not be a tremendous hit. But in terms of purchasing power and the existing dominance of the US Dollar for trade, we could see some pressure in other areas.

In relation, our custom China/SE Asia Index is pushing toward the upward range of our price channel and could rotate lower on a Swan-type event (like a debt issue or political issue).

Oil is breaking downward as these global events and the transition to slower consumption continues to drive supply higher and higher. We could continue to see Oil based “Mini Swan Events” in countries that are dependent on Oil prices and income to support their economies.

US Banking and Insurance firms are sure to take increased risks with these types of events. As borrowers are displaced because of a “Swan type Event” and refocus on immediate needs/issues, delinquencies in mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and others will spike (quickly). This becomes a matter of survival (much like after the 2009 Credit Market Crisis) where people made choices to support immediate needs and not long term credit needs.

Metals, of course, have already started to make a move higher because of the risk of these events and global risks. Although, we still believe a short-term move lower (almost like a relief move) will play out over the next few weeks that will be the opportunity we have been waiting for. This move will allow investors to position metals trades for the potential longer term Swan event outcomes.

Lastly, our US Custom Index is continuing to provide a much clearer and defined picture of the Head-n-Shoulders formation that has us fixated on the potential of our VIX Spike dates, major cycle events, key rotations and, now, these potentially massive “Swan type events” to correlate into almost a Super-Swan Event. These hurricanes are passing events – they go away eventually. An economic event is something that takes much longer to resolve and restore. Much like the 2009 Credit Market Crisis, the results of a Swan type event can be long lasting and can result in massive asset revaluation.

We’re not saying the global markets are going to fall into another 2009 type event, but we are saying that our analysis is showing that “some type of event is setting up and IF it turned into a Super Swan event, then YOU (the investor) need to be aware of this potential”. If it simply turns into a correction or minor downturn, then you still need to be aware of this potential so you can profit from it – either way.

What will it take to setup and execute a series of trades that help protect against this type of possible Swan Event?

Join Active Trading Partners [visit here] today to learn more and follow our daily research reports to assist you in preparing for just this type of event. There is not a lot of time left before these potential events begin to play out. ATP will assist you by finding great trading opportunities and keeping you informed of the markets setups and potential moves/cycles.
Are you ready for the next Super-Swan Event? If not, join Active Trading Partners today.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
VIX Spikes Showing Massive Volatility Increase

Today, we are going to revisit some of our earlier analysis regarding the VIX and our beloved VIX Spikes.  Over the past 3+ months, we’ve been predicting a number of VIX Spikes based on our research and cycle analysis.  Our original analysis of the VIX Spike patterns has been accurate 3 out of 4 instances (75%).  Our analysis has predicted these spikes within 2 to 4 days of the exact spike date.  The most recent VIX Spike shot up 57% from the VIX lows.  What should we expect in the future?

Well, this is where we should warn you that our analysis is subjective and may not be 100% accurate as we can’t accurately predict what will happen in the future. Our research team at Active Trading Partners.com attempt to find highly correlative trading signals that allow our members to develop trading strategies and allow us to deliver detailed and important analysis of the US and global markets.

The research team at ATP is concerned that massive volatility is creeping back into the global markets. The most recent VIX spike was nearly DOUBLE the size of the previous spike. Even though the US markets are clearly range bound and rotating, we expect them to stay within ranges that would allow for the VIX to gradually increase through a succession of VIX spike patterns in the future.

Let’s review some of our earlier analysis before we attempt to make a case for the future. Our original VIX Spike article indicated we believed a massive VIX spike would happen near June 29th. We warned of this pattern nearly 3 weeks ahead of the spike date. Below, you will see the chart of the VIX and spikes we shared with our members. This forecast was originally created on June 7th and predicted potential spikes on June 9th or 12th and June 29th.

What would you do if you knew these spikes were happening?
Currently, we need to keep in mind the next VIX Spike Dates
Sept 11th or 12th and finally Sept 28th or 29th.

Our continued research has shown that the US markets are setting up for a potential massive Head-n-Shoulders pattern (clearly indicated in this NQ Chart). The basis of this analysis is that the US markets are reacting to Political and Geo-Economic headwinds by stalling/retracing. The rally after the US Presidential election was “elation” regarding possibilities for increased global economic activities. And, as such, we have seen an increase in manufacturing and GDP output over the past 6+ months. Yet, the US and global markets may have jumped the gun a bit and rallied into “hype” setting up a potential corrective move.

Currently, the NQ would have to fall an additional 4.5% to reach the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders formation. One interesting facet of the current NQ chart is that is setting up in a FLAG FORMATION that would indicate a massive breakout/breakdown is imminent. The cycle dates that correspond to this move are the September 11th or 12th move.

Please understand that we are attempting to keep you informed as to the potential for a massive volatility spike in the US and Global markets related to what we believe are eminent Political and Geo-Economic factors. Central Banks have just met in Jackson Hole, WY and have been discussing their next moves as well as the US Fed reducing their balance sheets. Overall, the US economy appears to show some strength, yet as we have shown, delinquencies have started to rise and this is not a positive sign for a mature economic cycle. Expectations are that the US Fed will attempt another one or two rate raises before the end of 2017. Our analysis shows that Janet Yellen should be moving at a snail’s pace at this critical juncture.

The last, most recent, VIX Spike was nearly DOUBLE the size of the previous Spike. This is an anomaly in the sense that the VIX has, with only a few exceptions, continued to contract as the global central banks continued to support the world’s economies. In other words, smooth sailing ahead as long as the global banks were supplying capital for the recovery.

Now that we are at a point where the central banks are attempting to remove capital from their balance sheets while raising rates and dealing with debt issues, the markets are looking at this with a fresh perspective and the VIX is showing us early warning signs that massive volatility may be reentering the global markets. Any future VIX Spike cycles that continue to increase in range would be a clear indication that FEAR is entering the markets again and that debt, contraction and decreased consumer participation are at play.

I don’t expect you to fully understand the chart and analysis below, but the take away is this. Pay attention to these dates: September 11, September 28 and October 16. These are the dates that will likely see increased price volatility associated with them and could prompt some very big moves.

This analysis brings us to an attempt at creating a conclusion for our readers. First, our current analysis of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern in the NQ is still valid. We do not have any indication of a change in trend or analysis at this moment. Thus, we are still operating under the presumption that this pattern will continue to form. Secondly, the current VIX spike aligns perfectly with our analysis that the markets are becoming more volatile as the VIX WEDGE tightens and as the potential for the Head-n-Shoulders pattern extends. Lastly, FEAR and CONCERN has begun to enter the market as we are seeing moves in the Metals and Equities that portend a general weakness by investors.

We will add the following that you won’t likely see from other researchers – the time to act is NOT NOW. Want to know why this is the case and why we believe our analysis will tell us exactly when to act to develop maximum profits from these moves?

Join the Active Trading Partners to learn why and to stay on top of these patterns as they unfold. We’ve been accurate with our VIX Spike predictions and we will soon see how our Head and Shoulders predictions play out. We’ve already alerted you to the new VIX Spike dates (these alone are extremely valuable). We are actively advising our ATP members regarding opportunities and trading signals that we believe will deliver superior profits. Isn’t it time you invested in your future and prepared for these moves?

Join the Active Trading Partners HERE today and Join a team dedicated to your success.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

Maybe you were lucky enough to get a seat at this weeks free webinar with our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Trading. If you didn’t we have good news. John has agreed to come back with another one this upcoming Thursday August 24th to make sure everybody gets a chance to see this.

In this special free training John will show us how he predicts big moves in the market with his “10X Trade Formula”

If you have attended one of John’s free trading webinar you know, they fill up to capacity and they fill up fast. So we are putting the word out early so our readers can make sure they get a reserved seat and keep it.

It all takes place Thursday August 24th, 2017 at 8:00 pm est [ 5 pm pacific and 7 pm central]

Reserve Your Spot Here

Here’s just some of what we will cover….

    *   The Explosive Setup that Bought John a 200 Acre Ranch on ONE 24 Hour TSLA Trade

    *   How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

    *   How John Caught Some of the Decade’s Biggest Moves (Including the 2008 Crash)

    *   The Smart Way to Exploit the Obscene Profit Potential of Put and Call options

    *   How to Avoid Heartbreaking Mistakes that Wipe Out Massive Profits

    *   When to Bet Small and When to ‘Load the Boat’ for a Potential Home Run

    *   How to Predict ‘Explosions and Implosions’ with Shocking Accuracy and Limited Risk

Join John Carter for this Special Presentation

Reserve Your Spot Here


BONUS: Those who attend the webinar live will receive a FREE copy of John’s popular psychology class, “The Billionaire Mindset.” 


Stock Trkr
How to Turn Dimes into Dollars Catching Volatility Explosions – Next Free Webinar

Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Trading is back with another one of his ground breaking free webinars. In this special free training John will show us how he predicts big moves in the market with his “10X Trade Formula”

If you have attended one of John’s free trading webinar you know, they fill up to capacity and they fill up fast. So we are putting the word out early so our readers can make sure they get a reserved seat and keep it.

It all takes place Thursday August 17th, 2017 at 8:00 pm est [ 5 pm pacific and 7 pm central]

Reserve Your Spot Here

Here’s just some of what we will cover….

    *   The Explosive Setup that Bought John a 200 Acre Ranch on ONE 24 Hour TSLA Trade

    *   How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

    *   How John Caught Some of the Decade’s Biggest Moves (Including the 2008 Crash)

    *   The Smart Way to Exploit the Obscene Profit Potential of Put and Call options

    *   How to Avoid Heartbreaking Mistakes that Wipe Out Massive Profits

    *   When to Bet Small and When to ‘Load the Boat’ for a Potential Home Run

    *   How to Predict ‘Explosions and Implosions’ with Shocking Accuracy and Limited Risk

Join John Carter for this Special Presentation

Reserve Your Spot Here


BONUS: Those who attend the webinar live will receive a FREE copy of John’s popular psychology class, “The Billionaire Mindset.” 


Stock Trkr
Could There Be a Reversal Coming to the Major U.S. Markets?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!

There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017.

There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the DOW Industrials, it reflected

a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high. Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017. There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of GOLD, Silver, BITCOIN and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below. It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at The Gold & Oil Guy to know where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.

In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades by visiting here at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Momentum Reversal Method Strikes Again with MOBL

In early May, 2017, we alerted our followers to a trading opportunity that resulted in a nearly perfect Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) setup – this trade was MOBL (Mobileiron Inc).  Now that the trade has completed, we wanted to share with you an example of how the  MRM trading strategy works and how successful some of these setups can become.  But first, lets take a bit of time to understand what Active Trading Partners is and how we provide benefit and services to our clients.

Active Trading Partners is a research and analytics firm that specialized in US Equities, ETFs and major Commodities analysis.  Our objective is to continually provide updated research and analytics for our members as well as to actively deploy our specialized Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) trading strategy for our members use and benefit.  As many of you may remember, on June 11 2017, we posted our research that the “NASDAQ would sell off” and the “VIX would SPIKE” on or near June 29th, 2017.  How many of you would have loved to know that we predicted a 6% swing in the NASDAQ and a 52% swing in the VIX two weeks in advance on the EXACT DAY it happened? 
What we are trying to illustrate to you is that we attempt to provide value beyond our trading signals and beyond our daily updates.  We attempt to keep you aware of what is likely to happen in the global markets and how these swings can be advantageous for you as traders/investors.  So, before we get sidetracked on the extras we provide, lets focus on this MOBL trade.
MOBL began to appear on our MRM alerts in early April 2017.  As with many of the MRM type of setups, they begin can sometimes start to alert us to setups days or weeks in advance of the actual move.  In this case, classic technical and Fibonacci analysis assisted in confirming our MRM trigger.  The MRM setup was valid and we simply wanted to watch the MRM setup for signs of price volume/rotation.  We often use this price/volume rotation trigger as a means of setting up entry functions for pending MRM triggers.
In early May 2017, the price/volume rotation trigger was complete and now we had a valid entry into MOBL with projected targets of $5.45 and $6.25.  Our analysts identify the targets based on recent price action, where our entry is located and current price/volume rotation levels.  In other words, if we believe the move will be short term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on immediate objectives.  If we believe the move will be a bit longer-term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on that objective.
Just to be clear, everything originates from the MRM trigger.  We may see 20 or 30 of these triggers each week.  From there, price confirmation MUST occur or have already happened in order for it to be considered for our ATP members.  Additionally, we attempt to gauge the overall global markets in terms of risk parameters for each MRM setup/trigger.  If the US majors or global markets are weak and fearful, then we’ll address that risk by being more selective of our MRM triggers and setups.  If our analysts believe the US and global markets are going to continue to trend, then we may widen our risk parameters a bit more.

On May 11th, 2017, we issued a BUY Swing Trade Alert for MOBL @ $4.65 for a FULL Position.  This exact alert read as follows:
Buy Symbol : MOBL
Max Buy Price: $4.85 or lower
Position Size: FULL
Stop loss: Close below $3.95
Target: $5.45, then $6.25 objective for a 17~35%+ swing potential
Enter FULL position below $4.85 today. A move above $5.35 is expected with a potential for a move above $6.50 later.
As you can see from these charts, we executed the MOBL trade flawlessly. The first target was hit only 6 trading days after entry for a +17% gain.  The second target took a bit longer, but it was eventually hit  26 trading days after entry (about one month after entry).  It was just prior to the second target being hit that our research team indicated that MOBL could run much higher and that we should alert our members that we are going to use Target #2 as a stop adjustment and attempt to let this position run.  Typically, we get about 2~4 of these types of trades each calendar year for our members – you know, the big breakout runners that can turn into 30%, 50%, 120% or more.


When all was said and done, Our VIX/NASDAQ analysis was perfect and the rotation in the tech markets resulted in our MOBL trade getting stopped out July 3rd, 2017 @ $5.85 for a +25.6% gain.  

This single trade resulted in a +$4000 total return for our members – this one trade will cover their ActiveTradingPartners.com membership for almost FOUR YEARS.  Believe it or not, we are expecting MOBL to generate another MRM setup soon that could allow us to re-enter this trade for the next run higher.


This is an excellent example of how our Momentum Reversal Method strategy works and provides benefits for our clients.  Not only do you receive these timely and accurate triggers, but you also receive our advanced research and market analysis.  Like we said early, we alerted our members to a critical June 29th market move two weeks before it happened and our analysis hit perfectly.  We like to ask our clients and viewers this question, “isn’t it time you invested in your future?”.  We would really like to help you achieve greater success and find greater opportunities in the markets, but you have to subscribe at Active Trading Partners .com for this to happen.
Isn’t it time you invested in quality, logical trade research your future? CLICK HERE TO JOIN

Chris Vermeulen
aka the GOLD and Oil Guy

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Mike Seery’s Weekly Futures Recap – Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes closed higher on Friday July 7th after this weeks employment report showed that 222,000 jobs were added in June marking the second largest job haul of the year and underscoring that the labor market remains healthy. If the futures markets renews this year’s rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are going to be hard to project.

So there is nobody better time than now to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.35 a barrel while currently trading at 44.75 down about a $1.60 for the trading week despite the fact that this week’s EIA report showed a 6.3 million barrel draw down as the short term and longer term trend remains weak. The United States continues to increase production, and that is the main problem as the Trump administration wants to become a major exporter. I’m not involved in oil, but I still have a bearish bias to the downside as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is lower as there were rumors that Russia might be against production cut sending prices lower to end the trading week. The commodity markets, in general, remain choppy and this is not the same oil market from 10 years ago with the U.S. changing the dynamics as we continue to produce more and more. It looks to me that production will increase over the next several years as OPEC is not nearly as powerful as they used to be which is a good thing for U.S. security. I still think prices will test the contract low which was hit on June 21st around $42 in the coming weeks.
Trend: Lower – Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Get our Current Market Movement, Trade Triangle and Futures Updates

GOLD futures in the August contract hit a 2 month low currently trading at 1,215 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,242 down over $25 for the trading week continuing its bearish trend breaking the May 9th low of 1,217 as it looks to me that prices as I’ve stated in previous blogs prices are headed towards the 1,200 level. The monthly employment number came out today stating that we added 220,000 new jobs sending the stock market higher once again as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals & into the equity market. I think this trend will continue with the possibility that we will retest the January 5th low around 1,189 as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis. Gold prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as Silver and platinum prices continue to move lower as well. The trend is your friend in the commodity markets and if you are short stay short & place the proper stop loss as I see no reason to own gold at the current time. The U.S dollar is near a 10 month low coupled with major problems with North Korea, however that is still not able to support gold as that tells you how weak this market actually has become.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the September contract are lower by about $0.55 this Friday afternoon currently trading at 15.45 an ounce hitting a 15 month low after settling last Friday at 16.62 down about $1.20 for the trading week and trading lower 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions as the precious metals remain on the defensive. In my opinion it looks to me that prices will retest the March 2016 low around 14.78 as all the interest is in the stock market as we added another 220,000 jobs as the monthly employment report was released sending the stock market sharply higher and the precious metals sharply lower as this trend is for real to the downside. Silver prices are trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you this trend is lower and is getting stronger on a weekly basis as I see no reason to own any of the precious metals at the present time. Volatility in silver has certainly expanded over the last week as we’ve had two 50 cent down days with larger volume than normal which is not a good sign if you’re bullish as I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as catching a falling knife can be very dangerous and if you are short stay short as you are on the right side of this trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the September contract are trading right near a three week high after settling last Friday in New York at 125.35 a Pound while currently trading at 128.80 up about 300 points for the trading week. Coffee is now trading above its 20 day moving average, but still below its 100 day which stands at 136.60 as the trend remains mixed. I am keeping a close eye on this market to the upside as the agricultural sectors have all come alive as it looks to me that short term bottoms are in place as the chart structure is starting to improve with the 10 day low standing at 123.30. It will improve on a daily basis as the spike bottom which happened on June 22nd at 115.50 looks to be the short term low in my opinion. Volatility in coffee has come to a crawl once again which is a good thing therefore lowering the monetary risk as all of the bad news has already been priced into coffee & many of the soft Commodities so keep a close eye on this for a bullish position possibly in next week’s trade as this sleeping giant will awaken once again just like what happened in the grain market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid – Improving

For more calls on this week’s commodity trades like sugar, , Cotton, Wheat, Soybean and more….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
This Left for Dead Sector is About to Explode Higher

By Justin Spittler 

A revolution has begun. It’s going to change America in ways you can’t possibly imagine. 

No, I’m not talking about a political revolution. I’m talking about an energy revolution. Rick Perry, President Trump’s energy secretary, explained this revolution in a press conference last week:

For years, Washington stood in the way of our energy dominance. That changes now.
We are now looking to help, not hinder, energy producers and job creators.

Perry makes a good point. From 2009 to 2016, the Obama administration held back America’s energy sector. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) alone enacted nearly 4,000 regulations during Obama’s tenure. These measures severely handicapped the energy sector. They even killed some companies. Of course, Obama’s no longer running the show. Trump is. And he wants to put American energy companies first.

This might sound like an empty promise. But if there’s one thing Trump’s done consistently since taking office, it’s support the energy sector. This is great news for Oil and Gas companies. But it’s even better news for an industry that many investors have left for dead.

I’m talking about the coal industry.…
The coal business is what Doug Casey likes to call a “choo-choo train” industry. It’s a dirty, dangerous, and downright difficult industry. It hasn’t changed much since the Industrial Revolution, either. That’s why environmentalists hate it. It’s also why the EPA passed more than 33,000 pages of regulations under Obama. These measures have cost coal companies $312 billion since 2009. That’s nearly $40 billion per year.

Obama basically tried to regulate the coal industry out of existence.…
He nearly succeeded, too. Just look at all these coal companies that have gone bankrupt in the last few years.

  • Patriot Coal
  • James River Coal
  • New World Resources
  • Walter Energy
  • Alpha Natural Resources
  • Arch Coal
  • Peabody Energy

Just so you know, these aren’t second or third tier companies. They’re some of the biggest U.S. coal producers.

U.S. coal production fell almost 35% between 2009 and 2016.…
It’s also why the percentage of U.S. electricity fueled by coal plunged from more than 35% in late 2014 to less than 25% a year later. When most people see these statistics, they write off coal completely. They assume it’s finished. But coal isn’t going anywhere…at least not anytime soon. This dislocation between fact and fantasy has created a huge investing opportunity. Here’s why…

Trump wants to help coal companies.…
Everyone knows this. It was one of his biggest pledges during his campaign. But unlike many other things Trump’s promised, he’s actually delivered on this. In fact, one of the first things Trump did as president was roll back the Stream Protection Rule in February. A month later, he called for a review of Obama’s Clean Power Plan. He also wants to make it easier for U.S. coal companies to export coal and build coal plants overseas. So far, Trump’s efforts have worked.

U.S. coal production is up 19% this year.…
Coal companies have also added 1,300 jobs since December. This tells us that Trump is breathing life back into the coal industry. Still, you should understand something important. The coal industry will never make a full recovery. That’s because natural gas and renewables have become much cheaper in recent years. Because of this, more and more U.S. power plants are using less coal.

That’s the bad news for the industry. The good news is that coal doesn’t have to return to its glory days for you to make a fortune. It just has to go from “terrible” to “not so bad.”

Here’s why that will happen.…

The rest of the world still needs coal.…
Right now, 1.2 billion people on the planet lack access to electricity. That’s 16% of the world’s population. That’s also 3.5 times more people than there are living in the United States right now. Most of these people live in China and India. These are two of the world’s fastest-growing economies. But these countries can’t keep growing like this without a lot of electricity. And that means huge demand for coal.

Why, you ask? Simple. Coal is still one of the cheapest, most abundant, and most dependable forms of energy. It’s also easy to store and transport. It’s the natural choice for emerging markets with massive energy needs. Just look at what China’s doing. It already burns 4 billion tons of coal every year. That’s four times as much as we burn in the States. And its appetite for coal is only going to get bigger.

This is a huge opportunity for the United States.…
After all, the U.S. has more than a quarter of the world’s coal reserves. Not only that, we have the desire and infrastructure in place to export coal. But don’t take my word for it. Take it from Corsa Coal, a major U.S. coal producer. Their CEO recently said that they plan to export 85% of the coal they produce this year. Most investors don’t realize this. They think the U.S. has to burn more coal for coal stocks to soar. But the industry just needs the government to leave it alone and for the rest of the world to keep burning coal.

Sooner or later, the masses will figure this out. When they do, money will pour into coal stocks. You’ll want to be ready for that. Here’s how you can set yourself up for big gains today….Buy the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (KOL). This fund invests in 27 different coal and coal-related stocks. It’s a way to bet on a rebound in coal without gambling on one stock. That said, you could still make a killing in KOL. To understand why, look at the chart below. It shows the performance of KOL since it went public in 2008.



Two things jump off the screen here. Number one, KOL’s up 116% since the start of 2016. That tells us the bottom in coal stocks is already in. Number two, KOL is still down 74% from its 2011 highs. This means KOL could more than triple from here and still be cheaper than it was six years ago.

In short, there’s still plenty of upside in KOL. Still, you should understand that this is a speculation. Don’t put more money into them than you can afford to lose. Have an exit strategy. And use stop losses. This will allow you to capture coal’s massive upside while limiting your downside.

The article This Left-for-Dead Sector Is About to Explode Higher was originally published at caseyresearch.com

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Mike Seery’s Weekly Futures Recap – Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes all closed higher on Friday, setting the stage for a steady or higher opening on Monday. But will our major Commodities join them in a possible bull market run this week? There is nobody better to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures in the August contract have traded higher for the 7th consecutive trading session are currently at 45.34 after settling last Friday in New York at 43.01 a barrel up about $2.30 for the trading week right at a 2 week high. I have not been involved in crude oil for quite some time. The energy sector had a positive week with the U.S dollar down around 150 points helping support prices, and crude is now trading above its 20 day moving average for the 1st time in awhile, but still below its 100 day and this trend remains mixed so avoid this sector. Oil prices bottomed out on June 21st around 42.05, and I’m still not bullish the energy sector. I still think lower prices are ahead as U.S rig counts continue to increase on a weekly basis as the U.S will become a net exporter which means we will rely less on Mideast oil which is a great thing for U.S security and a great thing for prices. Gasoline and heating oil which are byproducts of crude oil also have rallied this week, and they remain very bearish as Gas prices at the pump for the Fourth of July weekend are the lowest in 12 years. I paid a $1.96 just the other day.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

Get our Current Market Movement, Trade Triangle and Futures Updates

GOLD futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,256 an ounce while currently trading at 1,243 down about $13 for the trading week. I’m currently not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead despite the fact that the U.S dollar was down about 150 points this week, but was still unable to lend any support to gold prices. Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower, if you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 1,260. The chart structure is solid with the next level of support at 1,235, and if that is broken, I think we could retest the 1,200 level rather quickly. I do not have any precious metal recommendations. I still believe that they remain weak except for Copper prices which have broken out to the upside. Gold remains relatively nonvolatile over the last several weeks, and we need some fresh fundamental news such as interest rate hikes or global geopolitical problems to start pushing prices in either direction.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Silver futures in the September contract are currently trading at 16.65 an ounce unchanged this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday in New York at 16.70 unchanged for the week with extremely low volatility. Prices have nothing fundamentally speaking to push prices up or down at present. Silver is still trading below it’s 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend remains to the downside despite the U.S dollar being down about 150 points which help support silver prices, but this market remains weak as there’s very little demand despite historically low prices. The next major level support is 16.40 and if that is broken prices could retest the May 9th low of 16.12. The commodity markets remain weak despite small rallies across the board. The only exception is the wheat market which is being propelled by exceptional droughts in the Dakotas sending massive volatility into that market. Silver prices have remained extremely choppy in 2017 as we have been trading between 16/18 for many months so I’d avoid this market in my opinion & look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher volatility.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Coffee futures settled last Friday in New York at 123.00 a Pound while currently trading at 126 up about 300 points for the trading week right at a two week high as a possible spike bottom may have occurred on June 22nd at the 115.50 level. Prices are now trading above their 20 day, but still below their 100 day moving average as this trend remains mixed in my opinion. Coffee has entered their frost season in Brazil and rumors of colder temperatures have pushed up prices in recent days. This market has been bearish over the last several months, but everything comes to an end, and I avoided this market. I wrote about in many previous blogs I was not going to take a short position as I’m still looking at a possible bullish position if prices hit a four week high as the chart structure is solid. My only soft commodity recommendation is a bearish position in the cotton market as traders await the highly anticipated USDA crop report which will be released at 11 o’clock today. It will certainly send high volatility across the board so avoid this market and look at other scenarios with a better risk/reward scenario. I still think coffee prices remain choppy over the next several weeks.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week’s commodity trades like DOW Jones Industrial, Cotton and more….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
The Best Way to Protect Yourself From Out of Control Governments

By Nick Giambruno, editor, Crisis Investing

You probably know it’s a bad idea to put all of your asset eggs in one investment basket. The same goes for holding all of your assets in one country. But how much thought have you put into political diversification? With proper planning, you can greatly reduce the risk your home government presents to your financial and personal well being.

International diversification frees you from absolute dependence on any one country. Achieve that freedom, and it becomes very difficult for any group of bureaucrats to control you. The results can be life changing. Everyone in the world should aim for political diversification. Though it’s especially critical for those who live under a government sinking hopelessly deeper into financial trouble.

That means most Western governments. The US in particular. To get started, there are four core areas to consider: your savings, your citizenship, your income, and your digital presence.

Diversify Your Savings

It’s crucial to place some of your assets beyond the easy reach of your home government. It keeps that government from trapping your money if and when it implements capital controls or outright asset seizures. Any government can do either without warning.

You can diversify your savings in several ways:

  • Foreign bank accounts
  • Precious metals held abroad
  • Foreign real estate

Foreign real estate is especially helpful. I call it a diversification “grand slam” because it accomplishes a number of key goals at once. Owning real estate in a foreign country moves a good chunk of your savings into a hard asset. One that’s outside of your home government’s immediate reach. Ideally, it’s located somewhere you’d enjoy living.

Unlike digital financial assets, it’s probably impossible for your home country to seize your foreign real estate. Owning foreign real estate is one of the very few ways you can legally maintain some privacy for your wealth. In that sense, foreign real estate is the new Swiss bank account.

Foreign real estate often opens up other diversification options. In many cases, owning property in a foreign country makes it easier to open a bank account in that country.

It can also put you on the road to obtaining residency in a foreign country. It can even put you on a shortened path to citizenship in some cases. Lastly, owning foreign real estate gives you a second home, vacation hideaway, or place to retire. It’s an emergency “bolt hole” should you need to escape trouble back home.

Diversify Your Citizenship

One way to diversify your citizenship is with a second passport. Unfortunately, there is no route to a second passport that is simultaneously easy, fast, cheap, and legitimate. But that does not decrease the benefits of having one. Among other things, having a second passport allows you to invest, bank, travel, live, and do business in places you wouldn’t otherwise be able to.

There’s another important reason to get a second passport. No matter where you live, your home government can revoke your passport at any moment under any pretext it finds convenient. Your passport doesn’t actually belong to you. It belongs to the government. Having a second passport means that you can always escape your home country without having to live like a refugee.

Diversify Your Income

Income diversification means structuring your cash flows so you’re less dependent on any one country for your income. The goal is to create multiple sources of revenue from international investment opportunities and trends. Bonus diversification points if you do all this through your own offshore company domiciled in a favorable jurisdiction.

Diversify Your Digital Presence

Moving your digital presence to ideal foreign jurisdictions also adds significant political diversification benefits. This commonly includes your IP address (which often pinpoints you to a precise physical address), email account, online file storage, and the components of personal and business websites.

Plan for Bigger Government

Somehow, someway, your home government will keep squeezing your pocketbook harder and keep subjecting you to escalating, arbitrary, and burdensome regulations and restrictions. Expect more government and less freedom all around. The window to protect yourself closes a bit more with each passing week. The good news is you can start to diversify internationally without leaving your home country, or even your living room.

Still, it’s essential to take the necessary steps before the government slams your window of opportunity shut. If history is any guide, it won’t be open forever. It’s much better to have developed and implemented your game plan a year early than a minute late.

International diversification is a time tested strategy to protect you from desperate and out of control governments. Wealthy people around the world have used it for centuries to effectively protect their money and their families. Now, thanks to modern technology, anyone can implement similar strategies.

Regards,
Nick Giambruno
Editor, Crisis Investing


P.S. Taking the simple steps above is now more important than ever. As you’ll see, widespread economic chaos is coming… America is about to enter a crisis far more severe than what we saw in 2008–2009. 

Most investors aren’t prepared for what’s coming. But Doug Casey and I know how to turn these types of situations into huge profits. And in this video, we share need to know information about the coming global economic meltdown.

Click Here to Watch it Now.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
How Gold Stocks Could Deliver Historic Gains in the Years Ahead

By Doug Casey

My regular readers know why I believe the GOLD price is poised to move from its current level of around $1,250 per ounce to $1,500… $2,000… and eventually past $3,000. Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

In a desperate attempt to stave off a day of financial reckoning during the 2008 financial crisis, global central banks began printing trillions of new currency units. The printing continues to this day. And it’s not just the Federal Reserve that’s doing it: it’s just the leader of the pack. The U.S., Japan, Europe, China… all major central banks are participating in the biggest increase in global monetary units in history.

These reckless policies have produced not just billions, but trillions in malinvestment that will inevitably be liquidated. This will lead us to an economic disaster that will in many ways dwarf the Great Depression of 1929–1946. Paper currencies will fall apart, as they have many times throughout history. This isn’t some vague prediction about the future. It’s happening right now. The Canadian dollar has lost 33% of its value since 2013. The Australian dollar has lost 27% of its value during the same time. The Japanese Yen and the Euro have crashed in value. And the U.S. dollar is currently just the healthiest horse on its way to the glue factory.

These moves show that we’re in the early stages of a currency crisis. But if you make the right moves, you could actually make windfall gains instead of suffering losses. Here’s how to do it. The huge winner during this crisis will be the only currency that has real value: gold.

Gold has been used as money for thousands of years because it has a unique combination of qualities. Very briefly, it’s durable, easily divisible, convenient to carry, consistent around the world, and has value in and of itself. Just as important, governments can’t create gold out of thin air. It’s the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously someone else’s liability.

When people wake up and realize that most banks and governments are bankrupt, they’ll flock to gold… just as they’ve done for centuries. Gold will rise multiples of its current value. I expect a 200% rise from current levels, at the minimum. There are many reasons, which we don’t have room to cover here, why gold could see a 400% or 500% gain.

This should produce a corresponding bull market in gold stocks… perhaps of a magnitude we’ve never seen. A true mania for gold stocks could develop over the coming years. This could make anyone who buys gold stocks at their current depressed levels very rich.

What History Teaches Us About Great Speculations


Many of the best speculations have a political element to them. Governments are constantly creating distortions in the market, causing misallocations of capital. Whenever possible, the speculator tries to find out what these distortions are, because their consequences are predictable.

They result in trends you can bet on. Because you can almost always count on the government to do the wrong thing, you can almost always safely bet against them. It’s as if the government were guaranteeing your success. The classic example, not just coincidentally, concerns gold.

The U.S. government suppressed its price for decades while creating huge numbers of dollars before it exploded upward in 1971. Speculators who understood some basic economics positioned themselves accordingly. Over the next nine years, gold climbed more than 2,000% and many gold stocks climbed by more than 5,000%.

Governments are constantly manipulating and distorting the monetary situation. Gold in particular, as the market’s alternative to government money, is always affected by that. So gold stocks are really a way to short government — or go long on government stupidity, as it were.

The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically.

The beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by various puppeteers. But while it’s often hard to predict price movements in the short term, the long term is a near certainty. You can bet confidently on the end results of chronic government monetary stupidity. Mining stocks are extremely volatile for that very same reason. That’s good news, however, because volatility makes it possible, from time to time, to get not just doubles or triples but 10 baggers, 20 baggers, and even 100 to 1 shots.

When gold starts moving higher, it’s going to direct a lot of attention towards gold stocks. When people get gold fever, they are not just driven by greed, they’re usually driven by fear as well, so you get both of the most powerful market motivators working for you at once. It’s a rare class of securities that can benefit from fear and greed at once. Remember that the Fed‘s pumping-up of the money supply ignited a huge bubble in tech stocks in the late ‘90s, and then an even more massive global bubble in real estate that burst in 2008. But they’re still creating tons of dollars.

This will inevitably ignite other asset bubbles. Where? I can’t say for certain, but I say the odds are extremely high that as gold goes up, a lot of this funny money is going to pour into these gold stocks, which are not just a microcap area of the market but a nanocap area of the market. The combined market capitalization of the 10 biggest U.S. listed gold stocks is less than 6% of the size of Facebook. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When the public gets the bit in its teeth and wants to buy gold stocks, it’s going to be like trying to siphon the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

Gold stocks, as a class, are going to be explosive. Now, you’ve got to remember that most of them are junk. Most will never, ever find an economical deposit. But it’s hopes and dreams that drive them, not reality, and even those without merit can still go up 10, 20, or 30 times your entry price. And companies that actually have the goods can go much higher than that.

You buy gold, the metal, because you’re prudent. It’s for safety, liquidity, insurance. The gold stocks, even though they explore for or mine gold, are at the polar opposite of the investment spectrum; you buy them for their extreme volatility, and the chance they offer for spectacular gains. It’s rather paradoxical, actually.

Why Gold Stocks Are an Ideal “Asymmetric Bet”


Because these stocks have the potential to go 10, 50, or even 100 times your entry price, they offer something called “asymmetry.” You probably learned about symmetry in grade school. It’s when the parts of something have equal form and size. For example, cut a square in half and the two parts are symmetrical.

Symmetry is attractive in some forms. The more symmetrical someone’s face is, the more physically attractive they are considered to be. Symmetry is often attractive in architecture. But when it comes to investing and speculating in the financial markets, the expert financial operator eschews symmetry. Symmetry is for suckers.

The expert financial operator hunts for extreme asymmetry.

An asymmetric bet is one where the potential upside of a position greatly exceeds its potential downside. If you risk $1 for the chance of making $20, you’re making an asymmetric bet. Amateur investors too often risk 100% of their money in the pursuit of a 10% return. These are horrible odds. But the financially and statistically illiterate take them. You might do better in a casino or most sports betting. It’s one of the key reasons most people struggle in the market.

I’ve always been more attracted to asymmetric bets… where I stand a good chance of making 10, 50, even 100 times the amount I’m risking. I’m not interested in even bets. I’m only taking the field if my potential upside is much, much greater than my potential downside. Because of the extreme asymmetry gold stocks offer—because of their extreme upside potential when they’re cheap—you don’t have to take a big position in them to make a huge impact on your net worth. A modest investment of $25,000 right now could turn into $500,000 in five years. It has happened before and it will happen again.

Right now gold stocks are near a historic low. I’m buying them aggressively. At this point, it’s possible that the shares of a quality exploration company or a quality development company (i.e., one that has found a deposit and is advancing it toward production) could still go down 10, 20, 30, or even 50 percent. But there’s an excellent chance that the same stock will go up by 10, 50, or even 100 times. I hate to use such hard to believe numbers, but that is the way this market works. When the coming resource bubble is ignited, the odds are excellent we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank in a few years.

No one, including me, knows that the Mania Phase is just around the corner. But I’ve operated in this market for over 40 years. This is a very reasonable time to be buying these stocks. And it’s absolutely a good time to start educating yourself about them. There’s an excellent chance a truly massive bubble is going to be ignited in this area. If so, the returns are going to be historic.

Regards,

Doug Casey
Founder, Casey Research


Note: Casey Research’s resident gold stock specialist, Louis James, has just unveiled a proprietary strategy for selecting small gold stocks. Over a 30 year historical backtest, the strategy had a 95% success rate. Remarkably, the strategy even produced winning plays during gold’s $700 drop from 2011 to 2015.

So, if the Mania Phase Doug predicts takes off, the asymmetrical gains you’ll see from these small gold stocks could hand you 10, 50, or even 100 times your money. Here, I explain the full story on Louis’ strategy so you can review it for yourself

This article was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Mike Seery’s Weekly Futures Recap – Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Sugar and More

It’s time once again to check in with our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 45.83 a barrel while currently trading at 44.65 down over $1 for the trading week testing lows we haven’t seen since November 2016. I’m not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead for the entire energy sector. At present, my only energy recommendation is a short natural Gas position as complex oversupply issues continue to put pressure on prices in the short term. We are still trading far below the 20 and 100 day moving average, and that’s telling you that the short term trend is lower in natural gas. The next major level of support is all the way down at the 42 level as Rig counts in the United States continue to increase supply, so if you are short a futures contract stay short & place the proper stop loss as I think lower prices are ahead. Gasoline and heating oil are also at fresh contract lows putting pressure on crude oil, and there is nothing right or positive to say about this sector at present. Today’s slight rally across the board is just a dead cat bounce in my opinion and is due to oversold conditions.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Get our Current Market Movement, Trade Triangle and Futures Updates

Natural gas futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.03 while currently trading at 3.03 unchanged for the trading week despite Thursday’s trade rallying 12 points due to a bullish inventory report. I recommended a short position from the 3.17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 3.10 as the chart structure is outstanding. Natural gas prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average which tells you that the trend is lower as we retested 4 month lows in Wednesday’s trade. Stay short as mild temperatures in the 7/10 day forecast for Midwestern part of the United States could put pressure back on this market as the energy sector looks very weak in my opinion. Natural gas prices are just an eyelash away from getting stopped out as this trade has experienced very low volatility since the entry point, but if we are stopped out we will move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the trends are coming back in the commodity sectors which is a great thing to see, but stay short as who knows what Monday’s price action will bring.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

GOLD prices settled last Friday in New York at 1,271 an ounce while currently trading at 1,256 down about $15 for the trading week and topping out at the 1,300 level. The Federal Reserve announced that they raised interest rates a .25 point and plan on raising interest rates further down the road and this sent gold prices to a three week low. I am not involved in any of the precious metals as they have been incredibly choppy in 2017 and the monetary risk and the risk/reward has not met my criteria as prices are now trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average. I’m advising clients to avoid this sector and gold at the present time. The commodity markets, in general, remain weak in my opinion except for a select few with the stock market continuing to move higher taking money flows out of the gold and moving them into the DOW Jones once again. I think that trend will continue despite the terrorist attacks happening on a weekly basis coupled with uncertainty worldwide. Prices seem to have one more leg lower to the downside with a possible retest of 1,215 in my opinion. Silver prices this week also went into the negative as those prices remain extremely choppy as well, but one day the trends will come back in the metals so keep a close eye on this market & wait for the chart structure to improve.
Trend: Mixed – Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

sugar futures in the October contract are trading lower for the 6th consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 14.47 a Pound while currently trading at 13.60 down nearly 80 points and continuing its bearish trend. I’m not sure anyone knows how low prices could go. The next significant level of support is around the February 2016 low of 12.45, and if that is broken it could retest the August 2015 lows around 10.00 that’s how bearish this commodity is. This is due to overproduction and a very weak Brazilian Real which continues to put pressure on anything grown in Brazil. Sugar prices are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average and this trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis. I’m certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as that would be counter trend trading and trying to pick a bottom is very dangerous over the long haul. The soft Commodities still look very weak as the agricultural sectors except for a couple continue to head lower so, if you do have a short futures position stay short & place the proper stop loss as you are on the right side of this trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week’s commodity trades like Dow Jones Industrial, Cotton and more….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
The Last Time We Saw This, Investors Doubled Their Money in Six Months

By Justin Spittler

GOLD couldn’t catch a bid in December 2015. It was down more than 30%, and trading at the lowest price in nearly six years. Gold stocks, which are leveraged to the price of gold, were doing even worse. The average gold stock was 80% off its highs. Most investors wanted nothing to do with gold. But not Doug Casey. Doug knew gold would rebound. It was only a matter of time. He even told Kitco, one of the world’s biggest gold and Silver retailers, on December 18, 2015, that he was buying gold hand over fist:

My opinion is if it’s not the bottom, it’s close enough to the bottom. So, I have to be an aggressive buyer of both gold and silver at this point.

Doug’s timing was nearly perfect.…
The day before, gold bottomed. It went on to gain 30% over the next six months. The average gold stock more than doubled in value over the same period.


I’m telling this story because an opportunity just like this is shaping up before our eyes. Only this time, it’s in the energy market.

Energy stocks have been beaten to a pulp.…
You can see what I mean below. It shows how the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has done since the start of the year. This fund invests in 36 major U.S. energy companies, including Exxon Mobil and Chevron. You can see that XLE is down 13% this year. That makes energy stocks the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500.


Energy stocks are now off to “one of the worst beginnings to the year ever,” according to Morgan Stanley. As if that weren’t enough to scare away most investors, look at the ugly chart below. It compares the performance of XLE with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500. When the line is rising, energy stocks are doing better than the broad market. When it’s falling, energy stocks are underperforming the S&P 500.


Energy stocks have been lagging the broad market for nearly a decade.…
As a result, energy stocks now make up just 5.9% of the S&P 500. That’s half of what the sector’s weighting was in 2011. Not only that, the 36 energy stocks that make up XLE are now worth less than the combined value of Apple and Alphabet, the parent company of Google.

Situations like this don’t last forever.…
Eventually, the pendulum swings the other way. The trick is knowing when that will happen. That’s obviously easier said than done. Plus, you have to understand that markets rarely change direction on a dime. Instead, they usually go through a bottoming process that can take weeks or longer. And it looks like energy stocks may have begun that process.

Energy stocks took off last week.…
XLE jumped 2.5% on Friday. That was the biggest one-day jump in energy stocks since last November. This week, XLE is up another 1.4%. Now, it would be easy to dismiss this as “noise.” But if energy stocks keep rallying, XLE could “break out.” The chart below shows the performance of XLE over the last 12 months. You can see that it’s been in a downtrend since late 2016.


You can see that XLE hasn’t broken out of its downtrend yet. But it could do that sooner than most investors think.

Energy companies are starting to make money again.…
Revenues for energy companies in the S&P 500 surged 34% during the first quarter of 2017. That was more than quadruple the S&P 500’s 7.6% jump in revenues. Wall Street now expects U.S energy companies to post an 18% rise in revenues when the second quarter is all said and done. Not only that, analysts expect the sector to report a more than 400% spike in second-quarter profits. For perspective, second quarter profits for the rest of the S&P 500 are expected to rise just 3.7%.

Once “the market” figures this out, watch out.…
Energy stocks are going to skyrocket just like gold stocks did in early 2016. Keep in mind, the bottoming process could take weeks or even months. So, wait for energy stocks to “carve a bottom” before diving in. That’s when stocks stop falling, trade in a tight range for a period of time, and then start heading higher. Stocks that carve a bottom often keep soaring. Just look at what GDX did after it carved a bottom early last year.


By waiting for energy stocks to carve a bottom, you’ll greatly limit your downside…without giving up a chance at big returns. I’ll let you know when the time is right to invest in the energy sector. In the meantime, keep an eye on XLE and other energy funds like the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). Once they carve out bottoms, it will be a good time to buy.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
FREE workshop….Big Profits from Breakouts & Mega Trends

We are excited to announce that this Thursday our friends Todd and Roger will be putting on a New FREE LIVE interactive trading workshop, where we’ll teach you how to incorporate Bollinger Bands and Price Envelopes into your trading for much bigger gains which will help you maximize the percentage of winning trades you take while decreasing your losses significantly.

They have decided to call this workshop “Big Profits from Breakouts and Mega Trends”. You’ll also learn an ETF trading model that generated Todd over 963% return in just over 6 years.
Click here to REGISTER Thursday June 15th at 4:30 ET
It’s FREE to attend and it’s going to be actionable trading strategies you can start using the very next day!
Here’s just a few of the actionable strategies you’re going to learn:
* How To Use Bollinger Bands and Price Envelopes for Profitable Breakouts
* How Professional Traders Use Trailing Stops to Ride Massive Trends
* The Rules to the Turtles Trend Following System That Made Billions Over the Past Decade
* How to avoid Massive Losing Periods That Come With Buy and Hold
* How to Take Advantage of Increased Volatility So You Can Lock in Profits with Trailing Stops
* You’ll be Introduced to an ETF Trading Model That Generated Over 963% Return In Just Over 6 Years!
PLUS…Learn a lot more and get ALL your questions answered LIVE!

Click Here to REGISTER: Thursday June 15th at 4:30 ET

I couldn’t be more excited to have Todd and Roger show you firsthand how an ex hedgefund manager with tremendous success and experience trades the markets.
Have a profitable day we hope to see you there!
 
See you in the markets,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader


P.S. I recommend you attend this class if you’re interested in learning trading strategies you can incorporate into your trading right away. We anticipate this workshop will be fill up very quickly so get your reserved seat asap.



Stock Trkr
Mike Seery’s Weekly Futures Recap – Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Silver, Coffee and More

Both the SP500 [key reversal down] and NASDAQ [below the 20 day moving average] closed sharply lower on Friday while the DOW managed to close higher extending the rally off April’s low into uncharted territory. This will make upside targets hard to project for the Dow.

So let’s get ready for this weeks trading with a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures settled last Friday in New York at 47.66 a barrel while currently trading at 45.55 down about $2 for the trading week, but still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as prices are looking to retest the May 5th low of 44.13 in my opinion. The longer term and short term trend is to the downside as large supplies continue to keep a lid on prices. Gasoline and heating oil also continue to move lower, and my only recommendation in the energy sector is short the natural Gas market at this time. The chart structure in oil is poor as the 10 day high is around $52 which is over $6 away. I’m currently waiting for the monetary risk to be lowered and I am looking at a short position possibly in next week’s trade. There are concerns about gasoline demand which has also pushed oil lower over the last several weeks, but this market has been very choppy in 2017 as the volatility in the commodity markets are starting to rise once again as the summer months are upon us and historically speaking this is when you see large price swings up or down.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Get our Current Market Movement, Trade Triangle and Futures Updates

Natural gas futures settled last Friday in New York at 2.99 while currently trading at 3.04 up 5 points in an extremely low volatile trading week. I’ve been recommending a short position from the 3.17 level, and if you took the trade place the stop loss in Monday’s trade at 3.26. Tuesday it will be lowered to 3.17 as the chart structure is becoming outstanding. For the bearish momentum to continue prices have to break the February 28th low of 2.88 which is still quite a distance away so stay short and continue to place the proper stop loss as the trend is still lower in my opinion. Prices are still underneath their 20 and 100 day moving average looking for some fresh fundamental moves to put some volatility back into this market. The energy sector, in general, continues its bearish momentum this week as oversupply issues continue to hamper this market as production levels in natural gas are increasing in 2017 and 2018. Higher temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are expected this weekend and that has helped prop up prices here in the short term, but the 7/10 day forecast still has average temperatures, so let’s see what develops next week. I’m still looking at adding more contracts to the downside.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid – Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday at 17.52 an ounce while currently trading at 17.28 trading lower for the 3rd consecutive trading session after topping out at 6 week highs earlier in the week around 17.74. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines as this market remains choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading right at their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average as the U.S dollar has rallied somewhat over the last couple days putting pressure on GOLD and silver prices. The chart structure is poor therefore the monetary risk is too high for me to enter into this market at this time. The next major level of support is right at the 17 level, and for this market to continue its bullish momentum, we would have to break 17.75. Volatility has come upon us once again which is excellent to see in my opinion. Many of the commodity markets remain mixed as they are not trading in unison and that’s what I’d like to see occur once again like we experienced in years past.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor – Improving

Coffee futures in the July contract is currently trading at 128.25 a Pound after settling last Friday in New York at 125.25 up about 300 points for the trading week. I’m currently not involved in this market. However, I will not initiate a short position as I think coffee prices are cheap and I’m looking at a bullish position once a true breakout occurs. Coffee futures are still trading under their 20 day and 100 day moving average which stands at 139 which is quite a distance away. However, the chart structure is rather solid at the present time, and the volatility is really low as prices have been grinding lower. At the present time, we are in the frost season in the country of Brazil which is the largest producer in the world as colder temperatures are expected this weekend, but no frost as the agricultural markets are starting to stabilize despite the fact of the Brazilian Real remaining very weak against the U.S dollar. If you take a look at the daily chart, there is major support around the 125 level which was hit in the last 5 trading sessions and unable to break. I do believe we are finding support as prices are bottoming out in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid – Improving

For more calls on this week’s commodity trades like sugar, Cotton, Corn and more….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
Do These Three Things to Profit When Stocks Fall

By Jeff Clark, editor, Delta Report

The stock market has entered “the worst six months of the year.” The S&P 500 makes its best gains between November 1 and April 30. The period between May 1 and October 31 tends to be negative. The exact historical figures vary depending on who you ask. But there’s a good reason the Wall Street cliché machine advises to “sell in May and go away.” Stocks don’t do very well this time of year. And most of the major stock market disruptions of my lifetime occurred during this six month window.

Smart investors should take some time off. Enjoy the fruits of the “Trump rally.” Cash in your 13% gain on the S&P 500 since last Halloween and enjoy the summer. We’ll see you back in the action in time for Thanksgiving. But, if you want to make some money while the rest of the world is losing it, then stick around. Smarter investors could have the best six months ever.

Think about this for a moment…
Over the past 20 years, the Volatility Index (VIX)—a measure of the price investors are willing to pay to insure their portfolios against a significant market decline—has traded between a low of about 10 to a high of about 80. Recently, the VIX closed at 11—one of the lowest readings in the past 20 years. This happened at a time when the S&P 500 closed near an all time high. So with the broad stock market trading at its highest level ever, insurance is about as cheap as it has been in the past 20 years.

In other words, as we enter the worst six months of the year, put options—bets that the stock market will fall—are as cheap as they’ve been in two decades. This is a remarkable opportunity to profit as stock prices decline. Speculators can risk relatively small amounts of capital and achieve HUGE returns if stock prices fall. But there are a few tricks to profiting on the downside.

How to Profit as Stocks Fall
Over the long term, stocks go up. Don’t argue about it. That’s just how it is. The stock market moves higher over time. So short sellers—those folks who profit as stock prices fall—face an uphill battle.
Of course, there are situations where short sellers will ultimately profit even if the broad stock market moves higher.

For example, companies that commit fraud, take on insane amounts of leverage, or overhype a fad business almost always eventually crash and burn. But opportunities to short the stock in these firms are few and far between. For the most part, traders who are looking to short sell are going to trade on momentum. They’re going to look for overbought situations that look ready to reverse.

They’re going to buy cheap, out of the money put options. They’re going to be lightning fast, taking profits as the trade moves in their favor. And they’re not going to stress out about losing 100% on a trade because they kept their position size small enough to digest the loss.

How This Great Trade Went South
Let me tell you a story about the absolute best and worst put option trade I’ve ever seen. The trader made the most money I’ve ever seen on one put option trade, then he gave it all back. In September 1987, I was running the trading desk for a small regional brokerage firm. We had a handful of big name clients, folks who appeared regularly on the Financial News Network (the precursor to CNBC). One of these clients was a value oriented newsletter writer. His investment style was ultra-conservative and ultra-prudent.

So in September 1987, when this client bought a large number of put options on the S&P 100 (OEX), I took note. It was the first option position this client had ever purchased. He was buying these put options to hedge his managed-money portfolios against a sudden crash in the stock market.
It worked perfectly.

When the stock market crashed on October 19, 1987, the put options this client purchased rallied enough to completely offset the decline in his stock portfolios. It was, in my opinion, the most perfect hedge anyone executed prior to the crash. But it turned out to be a disaster for his accounts. You see, the money manager never sold the options.

Despite the market crashing, despite the VIX jumping above 100, despite the options he purchased trading for 20 times the amount he paid, he wanted to maintain the hedge. He wanted to keep his insurance in case stocks dropped even more.

They didn’t….When his options expired in November, even though the broad stock market was almost 25% lower than where it was when he bought the puts, his put options expired worthless. Stocks hadn’t rallied much off the October crash bottom. The S&P 500 was maybe 5% higher. The stocks this advisor held in his managed accounts were still suffering from the crash. And he never collected from the insurance he bought to protect his clients from the crash.

His clients suffered from the decline in the market, and they suffered from paying the option premium that was supposed to protect them from a crash. So what appeared to be a brilliant move in September 1987 turned out to be an expensive mistake by late November. His clients suffered from a decline in their stock holdings, and they also suffered as the OEX put options expired worthless.

A Simple Lesson
The lesson here is simple, when you’re betting on a broad stock market decline, you need to buy cheap put options AND you need to be willing to cash out of the trade when it moves in your direction—even if you think the move will go farther.
In my experience—which goes back more than three decades—if you want to profit on the short side of trading stocks, you need to get three things right…

  1. You need to target stocks that are overextended to the upside and have negative divergence on the technical indicators.
  2. You need to buy cheap put options, and you need to be willing to lose 100% of the premium you pay for the options. It should be less of a loss than short selling the stock.
  3. You need to be willing to take profits quickly. As stocks fall, the implied volatility of the option premium increases. You don’t need to wait for the stock to achieve your downside target. The option premium will often inflate to reflect the downside potential. Be willing to sell into that.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark
Editor, Delta Report


Justin’s note: Tomorrow, Jeff will be releasing a brand-new presentation on what he calls “the biggest breakthrough of my career.” In it, he’ll reveal a trading strategy that he’s been developing for over five years… has a success rate of 90.2%average gains of 50%… and an average trade length of just two days.

E.B. Tucker, editor of The Casey Report, and Doug Casey have been talking all about it these past few months. They think it’s one of the most fascinating moneymaking ideas they’ve ever encountered.
Most people will be watching this presentation at 12 p.m. ET tomorrow… but as a Casey reader, E.B. will be sending you the video early, so you can start watching ahead of the crowd at 9 a.m.
We hope to see you there.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Mike Seery’s Weekly Futures Recap – Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The NASDAQ 100 closed higher for the seventh day in a row on Friday as investors struggled to find fresh reasons to push shares to records after a six session winning streak ahead of a holiday weekend. Both the SP500 and DOW closed slightly lower on Friday as they both consolidated some of this week’s gains ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday. The high range closes in the SP500 and Dow set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading.

So let’s get ready for this weeks trading with a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures in the July contract are trading lower for the 2nd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday in New York at 50.67 a barrel while currently trading at 48.82 down nearly $2 for the trading week right at a two week low. Crude oil has remained incredibly choppy in 2017, and I’m not involved in this market. Traders were disappointed with OPEC’s decision in Thursday’s trade that sold off oil nearly $3 a barrel as Rig counts in the United States continue to climb. Oil’s fundamentals remain bearish with prices still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower. I am advising clients to avoid this commodity at present. I don’t have any trade recommendations for the 1st time in over two decades because of how choppy the commodity markets are presently. However, things will change as we enter the summer months when historically speaking volatility comes back and the trends do as well.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor – Choppy

Get our Current Market Movement, Trade Triangle and Futures Updates

GOLD futures in the June contract are trading higher by $10 this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday at 1,253 while currently trading at 1,267 up about $14 for the trading week and hitting a four week high. Gold is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the upside as a weaker U.S dollar coupled with a terrorist attack this week helped propel prices higher. The next major level of resistance is at 1,275 & if that is broken, I would have to think that prices will retest the April 17th high of 1,297 as this is one of the only few bullish trends out of the commodity sectors. I am not involved in this market at present as the chart structure remains poor. The U.S dollar is right near a seven month low as that has certainly helped gold prices come off recent lows as that trend seems to be strong to the downside. The stock market hit all time highs once again in Thursday’s trade having very little effect on gold prices as money flows seem to be going into both sectors which is very unusual, but can happen periodically with investors being interested in both sectors. In my opinion, I still believe gold prices are limited to the upside as all the excitement is in the equity markets, but there are so many problems worldwide right now that prices are supported in the short term.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor – Choppy

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.79 an ounce while currently trading at 17.30 up about $0.50 for the trading week right near a four week high and this market remains very choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 17.43 which is just an eyelash away with the next major level of resistance at the 18/18.50 level. Terrorism throughout the world and tensions with North Korea have bolstered the precious metals in recent weeks including silver prices. Silvers chart structure is poor, meaning the monetary risk is too high and the trend is too choppy to enter into a new trade, so be patient as we could be involved over the next couple of weeks. It’s time to look at other markets that are beginning to trend as there are few and far between. Silver historically speaking is an inflationary commodity, but at present inflation is still under 2% in the United States with many of the agricultural markets near recent lows once again. Silver has had a hard time sustaining any real type of rally in 2017.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor – Choppy

Coffee futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 132.10 a Pound while currently trading at 130.00 down about 200 points for the trading week continuing its slow grinding bearish momentum to the downside. I’m not involved in this market and will not take a short position and I’m advising clients to avoid coffee at present. The agricultural markets continue to look weak and the Brazilian Real is the main culprit and has put pressure on sugar, coffee, orange juice and soybean prices as these markets all look to head lower in my opinion. However, I do think the downside is limited as that is the reason I am not going short. Coffee’s trading under its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside as large production numbers are coming out of the country of Brazil which is the biggest producer in the world as a weak currency and abundant supply continues to keep a lid on prices. The chart structure in coffee is still is very solid and as I’ve written about in previous blogs, I’m interested in a bullish position if prices break the 137.75 area which is still quite a distance away so keep a close eye on this market as the volatility will not stay this low for much longer.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week’s commodity trades like Sugar, Cotton, Corn and more….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
This Giant Welfare State Is Running Out of Time

By Justin Spittler

The Saudis are begging Trump to stop pumping so much Oil. Saudi Arabia made the plea earlier this month in its monthly oil report. The report said “the collective efforts of all oil producers” would be needed to restore order to the global oil market. It added that this should be “not only for the benefit of the individual countries, but also for the general prosperity of the world economy.”

It’s a bizarre request, to say the least. You’re probably even wondering why they would do such a thing. As I’ll show you in today’s essay, it’s a clear act of desperation. One that tells me the country is doomed beyond repair. I’ll get to that in a minute. But first, let me tell you a few things about Saudi Arabia.

It’s the world’s second largest oil producing country after the United States.…
It’s also the largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel of 13 oil producing countries. Like other OPEC countries, Saudi Arabia lives and dies by oil. The commodity makes up 87% of the country’s revenues. This was a great thing when the price of oil was high. Saudi Arabia was basically printing money.

But that hasn’t been the case for years. You see, the price of oil peaked back in June 2014 at over $105 a barrel. It went on to plunge 75% before bottoming in February 2016. Today, it trades under $50.

Low oil prices are wreaking havoc on Saudi Arabia’s finances.…
But not for the reason you might think. You see, Saudi Arabia is the world’s lowest-cost oil producer. Its oil companies can turn a profit at as low as $10 per barrel. That’s one fifth of what oil trades for today.

So what’s the problem? The problem is that Saudi Arabia is one giant welfare state.

Nick Giambruno, editor of Crisis Investing, explains:

Saudi Arabia has a very simple social contract. The royal family gives Saudi citizens cradle-to-grave welfare without taxation. The Saudi government spends a fortune on these welfare programs, which effectively keep its citizens politically sedated. In exchange, the average Saudi citizen forfeits any political power he would otherwise have.

Not only that, about 70% of Saudi nationals work for the government. These “public servants” earn 1.7 times more than their counterparts in the private sector.

In short, Saudi Arabia uses oil money to keep its citizens in line.…
But this scheme isn’t cheap. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Saudi Arabia needs oil to trade north of $86 a barrel to balance its budget. That’s nearly double the current oil price. This is creating big problems for the Saudi kingdom. In 2015, the Saudis posted a record $98 billion deficit. That was equal to about 15% of the country’s annual economic output. Last year, it ran another $79 billion deficit.

Saudi Arabia is now desperately trying to restore its finances.…
It’s slashed its government subsidies. It’s borrowed billions of dollars. It’s even trying to reinvent its oil addicted economy. In fact, it plans to increase non oil revenues sixfold by 2030. It’s also trying to spin off part of the national oil company, Saudi Aramco, on the stock market. And it wants to create a $1.9 trillion public fund to invest at home and abroad.

The Saudis have even tried to rig the global oil market.…
It’s why they met with non OPEC members like Russia at the December meeting. At this meeting, OPEC and non OPEC members agreed to cut production. It was the first deal like this since 2001. OPEC hoped this historic pact would lift oil prices. There’s just one big problem.

U.S. oil producers aren’t playing ball.…
Instead of cutting output, they’ve rapidly increased production. You can see this in the chart below. U.S. oil production has jumped 10% since last July.


U.S. oil production is now approaching the record level set back in 2015. There’s good reason to think production will blow past that high, too. To understand why, look at the chart below. It shows the total number of U.S. rigs actively looking for oil. You can see that the total number of rigs plummeted in November 2015 before bottoming a year ago.


The total U.S. oil rig count has now risen 28 weeks in a row. There are now 396, or 125%, more rigs looking for oil in the United States than there were a year ago.

If this continues, the price of oil will slide lower.…
Saudi Arabia isn’t used to feeling this helpless. After all, the Saudis had a firm grip on the global oil market for decades. If it wanted, it could raise the price of oil by slashing production. It also had the ability to drive the oil price lower by flooding the market with excess oil. Those days are over. The United States now rules the global oil market, and it’s showing no mercy.

Unless this changes soon, Saudi Arabia is doomed.

After all, the country is already in a race against time. According to the IMF, Saudi Arabia is on pace to burn through all of its cash within five years. In other words, we’re witnessing a seismic power shift in the global energy markets, one that could cause oil prices to plunge even lower. That would be bad news for many oil companies in the short term. But it should also lead to one of the best buying opportunities we’ve seen in years. I’ll be sure to let you know when it’s time to pull the trigger. Until then, stay on the sidelines. This one could get nasty.

P.S. Crisis Investing editor Nick Giambruno predicted that Saudi Arabia’s oil addicted economy would implode back in March 2016. Not only that, he told his readers how to profit from this crisis by recommending a world class U.S. oil company.

Nick’s readers are up more than 20% on this investment. But it should head much higher once the U.S. puts Saudi Arabia out of its misery. You can learn all about Nick’s top oil stock by signing up for Crisis Investing. Click here to begin your risk free trial.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Top Two Ways to Store Wealth Abroad

Nick Giambruno sits down with Doug Casey to get his take on what his favorite places and ways to store our wealth abroad.

Nick Giambruno: For centuries, wealthy people have used international diversification to protect their savings and themselves from out of control governments. Now, thanks to modern technology, anyone can implement similar strategies. Doug, I’d like to discuss some of the basic ways regular people can internationally diversify their savings. For an American, what’s the difference between having a bank account at Bank of America and having a foreign bank account?

Doug Casey: I’d say there is possibly all the difference in the world. The entire world’s banking system today is shaky, but if you go international, you can find much more solid banks than those that we have here in the US. That’s important, but beyond that, you’ve got to diversify your political risk. And if you have your bank account in a US bank, it’s eligible to being seized by any number of government agencies or by a frivolous lawsuit. So besides finding a more solid bank, by having your liquid assets in a different political jurisdiction you insulate yourself from a lot of other risks as well.

Nick Giambruno: Moving some of your savings abroad also allows you to preempt capital controls (restrictions on moving money out of the country) and the destructive measures that always follow.

Doug Casey: This is a very serious consideration. When the going gets tough, governments never control themselves, but they do try to control their subjects. It’s likely that the US is going to have official capital controls in the future. This means that if you don’t have money outside of the US, it’s going to become very inconvenient and/or very expensive to get money out.

Nick Giambruno: Why do you think the US government would institute capital controls?

Doug Casey: Well, there are about $7 – 8 trillion, nobody knows for sure, outside of the US, and those are like a ticking time bomb. Foreigners don’t have to hold those dollars. Americans have to hold the dollars. If you’re going to trade within the US, you must use US dollars, both legally and practically. Foreigners don’t have to, and at some point they may perceive those dollars as being the hot potatoes they are. And the US government might say that we can’t have Americans investing outside the country, perhaps not even spending a significant amount outside the country, because they are just going to add to this giant pile of dollars. There are all kinds of reasons that they could come up with.

We already have de facto capital controls, quite frankly, even though there’s no law at the moment saying that an American can’t invest abroad or take money out of the country. The problem is because of other US laws, like FATCA, finding a foreign bank or a foreign broker who will accept your account is very hard. Very, very few of them will take American accounts anymore because the laws make it unprofitable, inconvenient, and dangerous, so they don’t bother. So it’s not currently against the law, but it’s already very hard.

Nick Giambruno: What forms of savings are good candidates to take abroad? GOLD coins? Foreign real estate?

Doug Casey: Well, you put your finger on exactly the two that I was going to mention. Everybody should own gold coins because they are money in its most basic form—something that a lot of people have forgotten. Gold is the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously somebody else’s liability. 

And if your gold is outside the US, it gives you another degree of insulation should the United States decide that you shouldn’t own it—it’s not a reportable asset currently. If you have $1 million of cash in a bank account abroad, you must report that to the US government every year. If you have $1 million worth of gold coins in a foreign safe deposit box, however, that is not reportable, and that’s a big plus.

So gold is one thing. The second thing, of course is real estate. There are many advantages to foreign real estate. Sometimes it’s vastly cheaper than in the US. Foreign real estate is also not a reportable asset to the US government.

Nick Giambruno: Foreign real estate is a good way to internationally diversify a big chunk of your savings. What are the chances that your home government could confiscate foreign real estate? It’s pretty close to zero.

Doug Casey: I’d say it’s just about zero because they can make you repatriate the cash in your foreign bank account, but what can they make you do with the real estate? Would they tell you to sell it? Well, it’s not likely.

Also, if things go sideways in your country, it’s good to have a second place you can transplant yourself to. And I know that it’s unbelievable for most people to think anything could go wrong in their home country—a lot of Germans thought that in the ’20s, a lot of Russians thought that in the early teens, a lot of Vietnamese thought that in the ’60s, a lot of Cubans thought that in the ’50s. It could happen anywhere.

Nick Giambruno: Besides savings, what else can people diversify? How does a second passport fit into the mix?

Doug Casey: It’s still quite possible—and completely legal—for an American to have a citizenship in a second country, and it offers many advantages. As for opening up foreign bank accounts, if you show them an American passport, they’ll likely tell you to go away. Once again, obtaining a foreign bank or brokerage account is extremely hard for Americans today—that door has been closing for some time and is nearly slammed shut now. But if you show a foreign bank a Paraguayan or a Panamanian or any other passport, they’ll welcome you as a customer.

Nick Giambruno: The police state is metastasizing in the US. Is that a good reason to diversify as well?

Doug Casey: It’s a harbinger, I’m afraid, of what’s to come. The fact is that police forces throughout the US have been militarized. Every little town has a SWAT team, sometimes with armored personnel carriers. All of the Praetorian style agencies on the federal level—the FBI, CIA, NSA, and over a dozen others like them—have become very aggressive. 

Every single day in the US, there are scores of confiscations of people’s bank accounts, and dozens having their doors broken down in the wee hours of the night. The ethos in the US really seems to be changing right before our very eyes, and I think it’s quite disturbing.

You can be accused of almost anything by the government and have your assets seized without due process. Every year there are billions of dollars that are seized by various government entities, including local police departments, who get to keep a percentage of the proceeds, so this is a very corrupting thing.

People forget that when the US was founded there were only three federal crimes, and they are listed in the Constitution: treason, counterfeiting, and piracy. Now it’s estimated there are over 5,000 federal crimes, and that number is constantly increasing. This is very disturbing. There is a book called Three Felonies a Day, which estimates that many or most Americans inadvertently commit three felonies a day. So it’s becoming Kafkaesque.

Nick Giambruno: Thanks, Doug. Until next time.

Doug Casey: Thanks, Nick.

Editor’s Note: The US is nearing the worst financial disaster of our lifetimes. It’s inevitable. And it’s the single biggest threat to your financial future.

Fortunately, you can learn the ultimate strategy for turning the coming crisis into a wealth-building opportunity in this urgent video from New York Times best selling author Doug Casey.

Click Here to Watch it Now

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
Mike Seery’s Weekly Futures Recap – Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of May 8th through May 12th ended with the DOW and SP500 indexes closing lower as investors reacted to an uncertain political environment stemming from President Donald Trump’s firing of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey. Meanwhile, retail sales and consumer prices rose in the latest month, albeit by a slower pace than had been expected, offering a mixed picture of the state of the economy. The NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday, the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when next weeks trading begins.

So as we like to say….no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We’ve asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude Oil futures in the June contract are trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday at 46.22 while currently trading at 48.00 a barrel and I’m currently not involved in this market. Oil prices had a spike bottom last Friday which was May 5th at 43.76 & has rallied about $4. This market remains choppy just like all the other commodity sectors. However, if you are short a futures contract, I would place the stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 49.32 as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower. OPEC has come back into the news possibly cutting production once again to try to prop up prices as oversupply issues are the biggest problem with this sector as every time prices rally rig counts in the United States increase, therefore, putting pressure back on prices. Prices have surged over the last several days off of the API report which showed a larger draw down of crude oil supplies, but basically, I think a lot of this was short covering as prices were in oversold territory.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Get Chris Vermeulen’s Short & Long Term GOLD Projections

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,226 an ounce while currently trading at 1,230 down about $4 for the trading week and is still hovering right near a 7 week low. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines at present. As I’ve written about in previous blogs, I remain bearish on gold, and I think the stock market will continue to move higher. If you are short a futures contract, I would place your stop above the 10 day high which stands at 1,272 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. Gold prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is lower as volatility is relatively low. I don’t expect that to continue for much longer as generally speaking volatility starts to increase in the summer months for the commodity markets. The precious metals have been on the defensive over the last couple of months as Silver and platinum are also right near multi month lows as the commodity markets remain extremely choppy and have been over the last 6 months.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor – Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.27 an ounce while currently trading at 16.45 up about $0.20 for the trading week and it’s still right near a 5 month low as prices have rebounded due to oversold conditions in my opinion. At the current time, I’m not involved in silver as prices have dropped over $2 from their April 17th high and the chart structure is very poor. Silver futures are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and prices are probably looking to retest the December 23rd low around 15.84. The precious metals remain weak because all of the interest remains in the U.S stock market which is right near all time highs once again. Silver prices have been extremely choppy over the last 6 months rallying several dollars and then selling off several dollars as that has been the case with many of the commodity sectors. In years past we had terrific trends, but that has not been the case in 2017 as the risk/reward is not in favor at the present time so move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The Nasdaq 100 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5648 while currently trading at 5678 up another 30 points hitting another all time high this week. I’m not involved in this commodity. However, I am very bullish the stock market, and I’ve written about this in many previous blogs, I do think higher prices are ahead. The NASDAQ 100 is trading far above it’s 20 and 100 day moving average being propelled by Apple Computer. Apple is up another $2 hitting another all time high as the tech sector is still on fire. I’m certainly not recommending any bearish position as this is the strongest trend out of all of the markets at the current time. I do think the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will continue to follow. However, the NASDAQ is the strongest of all of the stock Indices and clearly is the leader to the upside. Fundamentally speaking this market has the perfect situation occurring with extremely low interest rates coupled with outstanding earnings and a Trump administration that is pro business so who knows how high prices can go, but in my opinion, they are going much higher so if you are in a bullish position stay long.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

For more calls on this week’s commodity trades like Wheat, sugar, Corn and more….Just Click Here!

Stock Trkr
The Bond King Says "Short U.S. Stock"

Image result for jeffrey gundlachShort the SP500…..That’s not something most investors would consider right now. After all, US stocks have been rallying for eight straight years. At this point, it’s hard to even remember what a down market feels like.

But that’s exactly what Jeff Gundlach thinks you should do. Gundlach, as you may know, is one of the world’s brightest investors. He manages more than $100 billion at his firm DoubleLine Capital.

On Monday, he told a room full of investors at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York to short (bet against) the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). This fund tracks the S&P 500. It’s the most heavily traded ETF on the planet.

It’s a bold call, to say the least.…
But Gundlach has a history of nailing calls like this. At last year’s Sohn Conference, he told investors to short the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) and buy the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM). If you had taken Gundlach’s advice, you’d be up 40% on this trade today. Gundlach was also one of the few people to predict that Donald Trump would become president of the United States. In June, he told CNBC:

People aren’t getting along, they’re not happy because of technology taking jobs, and sort of this long, slow grind of a new economy. And so they’re looking for change, and I think Trump is going to win on the basis of that.

In other words, it pays to listen to Gundlach.…
But here’s the thing. Gundlach doesn’t think you should get out of stocks completely. Instead, he thinks you should “go long” emerging markets. These are countries that are on their way to becoming “developed” countries like the United States. Brazil, Russia, India, and China (also known as the “BRICs”) are the largest emerging markets.

On Monday, Gundlach told investors at the Sohn Conference to buy the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which tracks over 800 emerging market stocks. It’s one of the safest and most diversified ways to play emerging markets. Of course, you would have already known that if you’ve been reading the Dispatch.

After all, I’ve been pounding the table on emerging market stocks for months.…
In February, I outlined the bullish case for emerging markets. A month later, I told investors to “forget about US stocks” and consider emerging market stocks. I even recommended checking out EEM, just like Gundlach. Not only that, Gundlach likes emerging markets for the same reasons we do. I’ll share those with you in a moment. But let’s first look at why the “Bond King” thinks you should short the S&P 500.

U.S. stocks are incredibly expensive.…
Just look at this chart. It compares the total market value of the S&P 500 with the annual economic output of the United States, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). This key ratio is now at the highest level since the dot com bubble.



US stocks aren’t just expensive from a historical perspective, either.…
They’re also much more expensive than emerging market stocks. Gundlach explained to CNBC on Monday:

The valuation of emerging markets is half the valuation of the S&P 500 when you look at things like price to sales, price to book, [and] Dr. Shiller’s CAPE ratio.

Dispatch readers know CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price to earnings. It’s the cousin of the popular price to earnings (P/E) ratio. The only difference is that it uses 10 years’ worth of earnings instead of one. But just like the P/E ratio, a high CAPE ratio means stocks are expensive. You can see below that the CAPE ratio has surged to 29.5. That’s 76% higher than the S&P 500’s historical average. US stocks have only been this expensive two times in history: just before the Great Depression and during the dot com bubble. Meanwhile, the CAPE ratio for EEM is floating around 14, meaning it’s 52% cheaper than SPY.

To be fair, emerging market stocks have been cheaper than US stocks for years.…
And they’ve still underperformed them. But that’s starting to change. Just look at the chart below. It compares the performance of the S&P 500 with EEM. When this line is rising, it means US stocks are doing better than emerging market stocks.


You can see that’s been the case for years. But this key ratio just broke a long term upward trend line.
This tells us that emerging market stocks should outperform US stocks for years to come.

If you haven’t already, I recommend you pick up some emerging market stocks today.…
The easiest way to do this is with EEM or another major emerging market fund. These funds will give you broad exposure to emerging markets. Once you build a core position in emerging markets, you could consider investing in individual emerging markets. Right now, three of our favorite emerging markets are Poland, Colombia, and India.

As for U.S. stocks, I wouldn’t encourage everyday investors to short the S&P 500 like Gundlach recommends. Instead, I suggest you be very selective about what U.S. stocks you own. Avoid stocks trading at nosebleed valuations. Own companies with resilient business models and little debt.

The article “The Bond King” Says Short US Stocks was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr
The Bond King Says "Short U.S. Stock"

Image result for jeffrey gundlachShort the SP500…..That’s not something most investors would consider right now. After all, US stocks have been rallying for eight straight years. At this point, it’s hard to even remember what a down market feels like.

But that’s exactly what Jeff Gundlach thinks you should do. Gundlach, as you may know, is one of the world’s brightest investors. He manages more than $100 billion at his firm DoubleLine Capital.

On Monday, he told a room full of investors at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York to short (bet against) the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). This fund tracks the S&P 500. It’s the most heavily traded ETF on the planet.

It’s a bold call, to say the least.…
But Gundlach has a history of nailing calls like this. At last year’s Sohn Conference, he told investors to short the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) and buy the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM). If you had taken Gundlach’s advice, you’d be up 40% on this trade today. Gundlach was also one of the few people to predict that Donald Trump would become president of the United States. In June, he told CNBC:

People aren’t getting along, they’re not happy because of technology taking jobs, and sort of this long, slow grind of a new economy. And so they’re looking for change, and I think Trump is going to win on the basis of that.

In other words, it pays to listen to Gundlach.…
But here’s the thing. Gundlach doesn’t think you should get out of stocks completely. Instead, he thinks you should “go long” emerging markets. These are countries that are on their way to becoming “developed” countries like the United States. Brazil, Russia, India, and China (also known as the “BRICs”) are the largest emerging markets.

On Monday, Gundlach told investors at the Sohn Conference to buy the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which tracks over 800 emerging market stocks. It’s one of the safest and most diversified ways to play emerging markets. Of course, you would have already known that if you’ve been reading the Dispatch.

After all, I’ve been pounding the table on emerging market stocks for months.…
In February, I outlined the bullish case for emerging markets. A month later, I told investors to “forget about US stocks” and consider emerging market stocks. I even recommended checking out EEM, just like Gundlach. Not only that, Gundlach likes emerging markets for the same reasons we do. I’ll share those with you in a moment. But let’s first look at why the “Bond King” thinks you should short the S&P 500.

U.S. stocks are incredibly expensive.…
Just look at this chart. It compares the total market value of the S&P 500 with the annual economic output of the United States, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). This key ratio is now at the highest level since the dot com bubble.



US stocks aren’t just expensive from a historical perspective, either.…
They’re also much more expensive than emerging market stocks. Gundlach explained to CNBC on Monday:

The valuation of emerging markets is half the valuation of the S&P 500 when you look at things like price to sales, price to book, [and] Dr. Shiller’s CAPE ratio.

Dispatch readers know CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price to earnings. It’s the cousin of the popular price to earnings (P/E) ratio. The only difference is that it uses 10 years’ worth of earnings instead of one. But just like the P/E ratio, a high CAPE ratio means stocks are expensive. You can see below that the CAPE ratio has surged to 29.5. That’s 76% higher than the S&P 500’s historical average. US stocks have only been this expensive two times in history: just before the Great Depression and during the dot com bubble. Meanwhile, the CAPE ratio for EEM is floating around 14, meaning it’s 52% cheaper than SPY.

To be fair, emerging market stocks have been cheaper than US stocks for years.…
And they’ve still underperformed them. But that’s starting to change. Just look at the chart below. It compares the performance of the S&P 500 with EEM. When this line is rising, it means US stocks are doing better than emerging market stocks.


You can see that’s been the case for years. But this key ratio just broke a long term upward trend line.
This tells us that emerging market stocks should outperform US stocks for years to come.

If you haven’t already, I recommend you pick up some emerging market stocks today.…
The easiest way to do this is with EEM or another major emerging market fund. These funds will give you broad exposure to emerging markets. Once you build a core position in emerging markets, you could consider investing in individual emerging markets. Right now, three of our favorite emerging markets are Poland, Colombia, and India.

As for U.S. stocks, I wouldn’t encourage everyday investors to short the S&P 500 like Gundlach recommends. Instead, I suggest you be very selective about what U.S. stocks you own. Avoid stocks trading at nosebleed valuations. Own companies with resilient business models and little debt.

The article “The Bond King” Says Short US Stocks was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Stock Trkr

+500

+

Social Counters
/ Free WordPress Plugins and WordPress Themes by Silicon Themes. Join us right now!

Send this to friend