March 07, 2014 – Daily Market Analysis

Today’s Hot Assets: USD, CAD 

Today the Nonfarm Payrolls figure will be released from the US which measures the change in the number of newly employed people, excluding the farming industry. A key indicator of economic activity is job creation and so this event is highly anticipated by investors. Recent data from the US has mostly disappointed the market and the last two NFP reports have also been well below expectations. Winter storms have been battling the US and the market is unsure whether bad data is a result of a slowdown in the economy or due to bad weather. Janet Yellen, the new head of the Federal Reserve, has assured markets that the weakness in hiring is weather-related and so today’s NFP release will be closely watched. If the figure is again lower than expected the Fed could decide to pause tapering at their next meeting. Yesterday, the US released a surprisingly positive Initial Jobless Claims figure bringing some optimism to the market. This came after the Beige Book showed that that in most regions the economy grew last month. Consequently US stocks gained; the S&P 500 closed 0.17% higher and the Dow Jones closed 0.38% higher.  Asian stocks were mixed. The Nikkei gained 0.92% as the Yen continues to fall against the Dollar following the positive Jobless Claims figures and the Hang Seng declined 0.19%. European stocks have started the session in negative numbers. The ECB maintained interest rates at 0.25% yesterday as stronger inflation and economic output reduced the need for officials to take action.

WTI Crude is rising following the better than expected US data. It also gained after President Obama said that pressure will be raised on Russia to back down on Ukraine and further sanctions could be imposed. Gold climbed yesterday after European officials called for the international community to take a harsher stance against Russia – increasing tension in the region. The yellow metal also moved up in anticipation of the Nonfarm Payrolls data today. Traders will be using the results to try and determine how the Fed will proceed with monetary policy.

Today’s Main Events:

13.30 GMT: CAD – Employment Change– measures the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending

13.30 GMT: USD – Nonfarm Payrolls – measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

13.30 GMT: USD – Unemployment Rate – measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

17.00 GMT: USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks – Due to speak about the economy at Brooklyn College, in New York

 

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