September 22, Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 22/09-26/09

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair fell again and by the end of the week touched 1.2825 level. The main movement down we saw on Wednesday afternoon, once the Fed released the economic projections. Even though they downgraded the forecast of the GDP for 2015 they upgraded forecast of target interest rate which immediately led in appreciating U.S. Dollar. The European Single Currency has remained under pressure, as inflation seems not to pick up. On Monday we should pay attention to European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Committee. On Tuesday we should pay attention to the French and German Flesh Manufacturing PMI data. German Ifo Business Climate will be released on Wednesday and is expected to continue it downward trend as previous 6 readings which can push the Euro lower. On Thursday the Core Durable Goods will come out.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair experienced a lot of volatility during last week as we expected. The very important vote about Scottish independence took place on Thursday and once it was official that Scotland will not split from U.K. the pair jumped to 1.6500. Just on Thursday the pair strengthened almost 300 pips! However, the vote also showed that about 46% people want to be independent and therefore the U.K. government need to take this result seriously. The pair then dropped back to 1.6300 area. This week we should pay attention to the political issues more than to economic data which will come out from U.K. On Thursday we should keep an eye on the U.S. Core Durable Goods.

GOLD

The price of gold has continued the bearish movement from previous weeks and dropped to 1,208/ounce where bounced. The price significantly reacted on the corrected economic projections of the U.S. which increased the interest rate target for 2015. The price moved to its 9-month low may continue and test the $1,200/ounce level very soon. This week we should pay attention to the FOMC members who will speak about monetary policy. On Monday it will be Narayana Kocherlakota and William Dudley, on Tuesday Jerome Powell and on Wednesday Loretta Meste.

Economics events (GMT time):

22/09/2014

 Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

1:00pm

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks

2:00pm

EUR

Consumer Confidence

2:00pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

2:05pm

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

5:00pm

CAD

Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks

11:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

23/09/2014

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

1:45am

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

7:00am

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

7:00am

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

7:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

7:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

8:00am

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

8:00am

EUR

Flash Services PMI

8:30am

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

8:30am

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

12:30pm

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

12:30pm

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

1:20pm

USD

FOMC Member Powell Speaks

1:45pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

2:00pm

USD

Richmond Manufacturing Index

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

10:45pm

NZD

Trade Balance

24/09/2014

12:00am

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

1:30am

AUD

RBA Financial Stability Review

8:00am

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

2:00pm

USD

New Home Sales

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

4:05pm

USD

FOMC Member Mester Speaks

25/09/2014

2:30am

AUD

RBA Gov Stevens Speaks

8:00am

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

10:00am

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

12:30pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

12:30pm

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

1:45pm

USD

Flash Services PMI

2:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

11:30pm

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

11:30pm

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

26/09/2014

6:00am

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

12:30pm

USD

Final GDP q/q

1:55pm

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

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