November 3, 2014 – Weekly News

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD dropped drastically and fell 270 pips after the FOMC statement was released. The report was more hawkish than expected, however, no important decisions were made by the Fed. Australian housing data came out worse-than-expected today and pushed investors to move their investments to the Dollar. Consequently the price has now reached its lowest level since August 2012.

This week we should expect a lot of trading opportunities connected to economic data and in particular, U.S. labor data. The Nonfarm Payrolls data will be released on Friday and the EU interest rate decision will be released on Thursday. If monetary policy from both countries diverges further we may see the pair move even lower.

 

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD dropped strongly and traded below 1.6000 as the Dollar climbed. The U.S. Dollar appreciated on the back of the slightly hawkish FOMC statement. However, the U.K. economy has been improving recently and consequently, there should be an upwards price correction.

This week, traders should pay attention to U.S. labor as well as U.K. Manufacturing PMI data on Monday, UK Construction PMI on Tuesday, UK Services PMI on Wednesday and the MPC rate statement on Thursday. The current expectation is that these figures will not be too strong and this could keep the pair below 1.6000.

 

GOLD

Gold started the week above $1,230/ounce, however, it then fell to a 4 year low at $1,160/ounce. The price reacted slightly to the FOMC report but the main drop came on Friday after the Bank of Japan surprised the market by extending its monetary stimulus. This caused the U.S. Dollar to appreciate and pushed Gold through its support.

This morning, the price again fell to $1,160/ounce as the U.S. Dollar benefited from disappointing Australian data. Bearish sentiment remains for the metal due to earnings reports from the U.S. which have mostly shown improvement and spurred the stock market. This week you should keep an eye on U.S. data and in particular the Non-farm payrolls release on Friday.

 

Economics events (GMT time):

3/11/2014

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

12:30am

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

12:30am

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

12:57am

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

1:45am

CNY

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

 8:15am

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

9:00am

EUR

Final Manufacturing PMI

9:30am

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

2:45pm

USD

Final Manufacturing PMI

3:00pm

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

3:00pm

USD

Construction Spending m/m

3:00pm

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

All Day

USD

Total Vehicle Sales

4/11/2014

12:00am

NZD

ANZ Commodity Prices m/m

12:30am

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

12:30am

AUD

Trade Balance

1:35am

JPY

Final Manufacturing PMI

3:30am

AUD

Cash Rate

3:30am

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

8:00am

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

9:30am

GBP

Construction PMI

10:00am

EUR

EU Economic Forecasts

10:00am

EUR

PPI m/m

1:30pm

CAD

Trade Balance

1:30pm

USD

Trade Balance

Tentative

NZD

GDT Price Index

3:00pm

USD

Factory Orders m/m

3:30pm

CAD

BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

Tentative

USD

Loan Officer Survey

9:45pm

NZD

Employment Change q/q

9:45pm

NZD

Unemployment Rate

9:45pm

NZD

Labor Cost Index q/q

10:30pm

AUD

AIG Services Index

11:50pm

JPY

Monetary Base y/y

5/11/2014

1:30am

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

1:45am

CNY

HSBC Services PMI

2:30am

JPY

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

8:15am

CHF

CPI m/m

9:00am

EUR

Final Services PMI

9:30am

GBP

Services PMI

10:00am

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

1:15pm

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

2:15pm

USD

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

2:45pm

USD

Final Services PMI

3:00pm

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

3:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

11:50pm

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

6/11/2014

12:30am

AUD

Employment Change

12:30am

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5:00am

JPY

Leading Indicators

7:00am

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

9:10am

EUR

Retail PMI

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

9:30am

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

9:30am

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

12:00pm

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

12:00pm

GBP

Official Bank Rate

Tentative

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

12:30pm

USD

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

12:45pm

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1:30pm

CAD

Building Permits m/m

1:30pm

EUR

ECB Press Conference

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

1:30pm

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

1:30pm

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

3:00pm

CAD

Ivey PMI

3:00pm

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

3:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

10:30pm

AUD

AIG Construction Index

7/11/2014

12:05am

USD

FOMC Member Mester Speaks

12:30am

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

6:45am

CHF

Unemployment Rate

7:00am

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

7:00am

EUR

German Trade Balance

8:00am

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

8:15am

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

9:30am

GBP

Trade Balance

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

1:30pm

CAD

Employment Change

1:30pm

CAD

Unemployment Rate

1:30pm

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Rate

1:30pm

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

7:00pm

USD

Consumer Credit m/m

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