May 19, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 19/05-23/05

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD slightly dropped on Tuesday once the German and EU ZEW Economic sentiment was released and showed figures under expectation. The disappointing data pushed the EUR/USD below 1.3700 and on Wednesday the pair fell for a while to 1.3640 but returned back to 1.3700 area. Despite the fact that the Euro returned we should take into account that the European central bank is more likely to add stimulus or cut interest rates in next meeting in June. That should make additional pressure on the pair. This week we should pay attention to speech of Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann on Monday, speech of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday, the EU Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI on Thursday and German Ifo Business Climate on Friday.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair climbed up above 102 level in the first half of the week, however the pair did not last there long and on Thursday fell all the way to 101.35. The pair fell despite strong U.S. Dollar so we can see that Yen was the driver of this movement. With good data BoJ Governor Kuroda eased the speculation over possible additional stimulus. As most of the analyst expected those stimulus to happen till June the pair reacted by strengthening of Yen. This week the pair opened again in downward pressure as the Japanese Core Machinery Orders came out and showed impressive 19.1% instead of 6.1%. On Wednesday we should pay attention to Japanese Monetary Policy Statement followed by Press Conference.

GBP/USD

Last week the GBP/USD continued its bearish movement which started on May 7th and fell all the way to 1.6730 – the one month low. Mark Carney (Governor of Bank of England) denied possible increase of interest rates as the U.K. labour data came worse than expected. However, the U.K. economy remains strong and therefore the pair returned by the end of the week above 1.6800. This week the main event for the pair will be U.K. MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, Official Bank Rates and Retail sales data which will be released on Wednesday. On Thursday we should keep an eye on U.K. GDP release.

GOLD

Gold opened last week at $1,289/ounce and closed at $1,293/ounce. Within the week the price tended to go more upwards reaching on Wednesday $1,308.9/ounce. The price was mostly influenced by tension in Ukraine and by U.S. data. Physical demand remained quiet. This week we should expect the same. We should pay attention to speech of Janet Yellen on Wednesday and U.S. Housing data on Thursday and Friday.

Economics events (GMT time):

19/05/14

 7:00am

EUR

German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

All Day

CAD

Bank Holiday

20/05/14

12:00am

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

1:30am

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

3:15am

AUD

RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

6:00am

EUR

German PPI m/m

8:30am

GBP

CPI y/y

12:30pm

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

4:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

5:00pm

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

5:30pm

GBP

MPC Member Bean Speaks

11:50pm

JPY

Trade Balance

21/05/14

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

5:00am

JPY

BOJ Monthly Report

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

8:00am

EUR

Current Account

8:30am

GBP

MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes

8:30am

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

8:30am

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

2:00pm

EUR

Consumer Confidence

2:00pm

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

3:30pm

USD

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

5:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

22/05/14

1:45am

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

3:00am

NZD

Inflation Expectations q/q

7:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

7:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

8:00am

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

8:00am

EUR

Flash Services PMI

8:30am

GBP

Second Estimate GDP q/q

10:00am

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

Day 1

EUR

European Parliamentary Elections

12:30pm

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

12:30pm

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

1:45pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

2:00pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

2:00pm

USD

CB Leading Index m/m

2:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

23/05/14

8:00am

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

Day 2

EUR

European Parliamentary Elections

12:30pm

CAD

Core CPI m/m

1:00pm

EUR

Belgian NBB Business Climate

2:00pm

USD

New Home Sales

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