March 17, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 17/03-21/03

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair started without any significant movement, moving sideways between 1.3835 and 1.3900. However on Thursday the pair managed to get positive momentum and break through the resistance and climb to its 2 year high – 1.3965. The pair was pushed by disappointing U.S. data as well as by the situation in Ukraine. It seems that investors trust in Euro more than in Dollar right know. This situation is quite unpleasant for European Central Bank which might act if the Euro strengthens more. This week the main event will be FOMC meeting and its statement. Investors are expecting that Fed will decide to continue with tapering of the $65 billion/month monetary stimulus. In that case we should expect some movement down. Except of this we should pay attention to German ZEW Economic Sentiment and U.S. CPI on Tuesday.

USD/JPY

Two weeks ago we saw the USD/JPY pair strengthening from 101.20 to almost 103.80. However, last week we so the opposite movement and the pair moved back to 101.20. The support at 101.20 seems to be strong and the pair always bounced back. The pair fell mainly on Thursday when the Yen benefited from the tension in Ukraine. Yen as safe-haven asset strengthened against all of the major peer. This week we should pay attention to the situation over the Crimea. On Sunday we saw that in referendum most of the population (96%) on Crimea is wishing to be connected to Russia. The EU and U.S. consider the vote as illegal and preparing sanction. Except of the political situation the pair will be also influenced this week by the FOMC statement on Wednesday and by U.S.CPI data on Tuesday.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair fell last week to its 1-month low reaching 1.6570 level. The decrease came after Governor of Bank of England Mark Carney said on Tuesday that the interest rates may be put on hold for extended period of time.  The pair on Thursday increased back above 1.6700 level but reversed and finished the week around 1.6640. This week we should expect higher volatility connected to economic events. Except of the FOMC statement on Wednesday we should pay attention also to U.K. Claimant Count Change, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and Unemployment Rate.

GOLD

Last week the price reached almost 6-month high and moved up to $1,388/ounce mainly due to tension in Crimea. Gold as a safe haven asset is benefiting in those situations and the price has been increasing since that. This week the price rose above $1,390/ounce. The referendum in Crimea is consider not to be legal. On March 20 and 21 leaders of the 28-nation EU will meet in Brussels on to discuss further measures aimed at Russia. The price will be also affected on Wednesday by FOMC statement.

Economics events (GMT time):

17/03/2014

12:30am

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

 9:30am

GBP

MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

10:00am

EUR

CPI y/y

10:00am

EUR

Core CPI y/y

Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

12:30pm

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

12:30pm

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

1:00pm

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

1:15pm

USD

Industrial Production m/m

3:00pm

EUR

German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

18/03/2014

12:30am

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

6:45am

CHF

SECO Economic Forecasts

7:00am

EUR

German WPI m/m

10:00am

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

10:00am

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

10:00am

EUR

Trade Balance

12:30pm

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

12:30pm

USD

Building Permits

12:30pm

USD

Core CPI m/m

12:30pm

USD

CPI m/m

12:30pm

USD

Housing Starts

3:55pm

CAD

BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

5:45pm

GBP

BOE Gov Carney Speaks

9:45pm

NZD

Current Account

11:30pm

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

11:50pm

JPY

Trade Balance

19/03/2014

4:30am

JPY

All Industries Activity m/m

5:00am

JPY

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

9:30am

GBP

Claimant Count Change

9:30am

GBP

MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes

9:30am

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

9:30am

GBP

Unemployment Rate

9:30am

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

10:00am

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

12:30pm

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

12:30pm

GBP

Annual Budget Release

12:30pm

USD

Current Account

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

5:45pm

CHF

SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Statement

6:00pm

USD

Federal Funds Rate

6:30pm

USD

FOMC Press Conference

9:45pm

NZD

GDP q/q

20/03/2014

12:30am

AUD

RBA Bulletin

7:00am

CHF

Trade Balance

7:00am

EUR

German PPI m/m

7:15am

JPY

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

8:30am

CHF

Libor Rate

8:30am

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

Day 1

EUR

EU Economic Summit

11:00am

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

2:00pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

2:00pm

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

2:00pm

USD

CB Leading Index m/m

2:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

8:00pm

USD

Bank Stress Test Results

9:45pm

NZD

Visitor Arrivals m/m

11:00pm

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

21/03/2014

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

2:00am

NZD

Credit Card Spending y/y

9:00am

EUR

Current Account

Day 2

EUR

EU Economic Summit

9:30am

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

12:30pm

CAD

Core CPI m/m

12:30pm

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

12:30pm

CAD

CPI m/m

12:30pm

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

3:00pm

EUR

Consumer Confidence

8:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

10:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Stein Speaks

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