March 16, 2015 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 16/3-20/3

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD continued to trade with bearish sentiment as the European Central bank started to increase the money supply with the quantitative easing program. By the end of the week, the pair had lost around 450 pips and reached a new 12- year low of 1.0460. The pair was mainly driven by the weaker Euro as weaker than expected U.S data caused little movement. In addition, the market has already priced in the expectation that the Fed will remove the word ‘patient’ from their statement. This would be very important as Janet Yellen previously signaled that an interest rate hike will be made a few meetings after the stance is dropped.

The FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday and very high volatility it expected. We should also pay attention to the EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Index which will be released on Tuesday. On Thursday, the EU Economic Bulletin could provide insight about the ECB’s current monetary policy.

 

GBP/USD

Last week, the GBP/USD traded with bearish sentiment and broke through another important support level which was placed at 1.5000. The pair reached a low of 1.4700 as investors weighed the upcoming FOMC meeting and the possible increase of the U.S interest rate.

This week, we could see more downwards pressure before the FOMC report is released on Wednesday. In addition, the U.K Claimant Count Change will also come out and could negatively influence the British pound as the reading is expected to be worse than last months.

 

GOLD

Gold slightly decreased and tested its lowest price in 3 months at $1,150/ounce. The price would have dropped further but the stock market has been posting losses resulting in less demand for riskier assets. As a result the price has been trading sideways between $1,147/ounce and $1,165/ounce

This week the price could fall significantly below $1,150/ounce as the FOMC meeting minutes will be released. If the Fed decide to drop the word “patience” the price of gold could test its support level at $1,130/ounce. Trader should also watch the movement of the stocks market.

 

 

Economics events (GMT time):

 

16/03/201512:30amAUDNew Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
 8:15amCHFPPI m/m
 8:15amCHFRetail Sales y/y
12:30pmCADForeign Securities Purchases
12:30pmUSDEmpire State Manufacturing Index
1:15pmUSDCapacity Utilization Rate
1:15pmUSDIndustrial Production m/m
1:30pmGBPCB Leading Index m/m
6:45pmEURECB President Draghi Speaks
17/03/201512:30amAUDMonetary Policy Meeting Minutes
TentativeJPYMonetary Policy Statement
TentativeJPYBOJ Press Conference
10:00amEURGerman ZEW Economic Sentiment
10:00amEURFinal CPI y/y
10:00amEURZEW Economic Sentiment
10:00amEUREmployment Change q/q
10:00amEURFinal Core CPI y/y
12:30pmCADManufacturing Sales m/m
12:30pmUSDBuilding Permits
12:30pmUSDHousing Starts
TentativeNZDGDT Price Index
9:45pmNZDCurrent Account
11:30pmAUDMI Leading Index m/m
11:50pmJPYTrade Balance
18/03/20155:00amJPYBOJ Monthly Report
9:00amEURItalian Trade Balance
9:30amGBPAverage Earnings Index 3m/y
9:30amGBPClaimant Count Change
9:30amGBPMPC Official Bank Rate Votes
9:30amGBPMPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
9:30amGBPUnemployment Rate
10:00amCHFZEW Economic Expectations
10:00amEURTrade Balance
TentativeEURGerman 10-y Bond Auction
12:30pmCADWholesale Sales m/m
12:30pmGBPAnnual Budget Release
2:30pmUSDCrude Oil Inventories
6:00pmUSDFOMC Economic Projections
6:00pmUSDFOMC Statement
6:00pmUSDFederal Funds Rate
6:30pmUSDFOMC Press Conference
9:45pmNZDGDP q/q
19/03/201512:30amAUDRBA Bulletin
4:30amJPYAll Industries Activity m/m
8:30amCHFLibor Rate
8:30amCHFSNB Monetary Policy Assessment
8:30amCHFSNB Press Conference
9:00amEURECB Economic Bulletin
10:15amEURTargeted LTRO
12:30pmUSDUnemployment Claims
12:30pmUSDCurrent Account
2:00pmUSDPhilly Fed Manufacturing Index
2:00pmUSDCB Leading Index m/m
2:30pmUSDNatural Gas Storage
9:45pmNZDVisitor Arrivals m/m
11:50pmJPYMonetary Policy Meeting Minutes
20/03/20152:00amNZDCredit Card Spending y/y
2:10amAUDRBA Gov Stevens Speaks
7:00amEURGerman PPI m/m
9:00amEURCurrent Account
9:30amGBPPublic Sector Net Borrowing
12:30pmCADCore CPI m/m
12:30pmCADCore Retail Sales m/m
12:30pmCADCPI m/m
12:30pmCADRetail Sales m/m
2:20pmUSDFOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

 

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