June 27, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 23/06-27/06

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD slightly increase and left the sideways channel between 1.35-1.36. The pair reacted on the FOMC report which was released last Wednesday and where investors saw that just one member would increase the interest rate by the end of this year and more seriously the economist downgraded the outlook. As the market took this news negatively the pair increased to 1.3640. However, the pair reversed and on Friday fell back down. The new week started with another bullish move and the pair is currently traded slightly above 1.3600.  On Monday we should keep an eye on the Manufacturing and Services PMI both for EU and U.S. On Tuesday the German Ifo Business Climate and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence will be released and both reports are consider to be very important. On Wednesday the U.S. Durable Goods orders and GDP will come out. On Friday the German CPI data should give us some higher volatility.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair was increasing from last Monday to Wednesday from 101.70 to 102.35 on the back of good economic data from U.S. but as the FOMC report was released and disappointed the market the pair immediately dropped back down. The price is currently around 101.90 and as well as we wrote in the EUR/USD paragraph we can see the main driver is the bearish sentiment on USD. This week we should keep an eye except of the U.S. event (e.g. CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods orders or GPD) on the Japanese market as well. Today in the morning Haruhiko Kuroda (the Bank of Japan governor) will have a speech and might give us volatility. On Thursday the Japanese Tokyo CPI and household spending and Retail Sales will be posted and should give us some trading opportunities.

GBP/USD

Last week the GBP/USD rose to its 5-year high reached as high as 1.7060. That high it was last time in October 2008 when the pair had been falling from 2.1000 level. The pair might continue its uptrend as Bank of England is expected to increase the interest rates earlier than Fed. This week on Monday the BOE Credit Conditions Survey will come out and might give us some pull on the pair. On Tuesday the main events will be U.K. Inflation Report Hearings and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence. On Thursday we should pay attention to the BoE Mark Carney’s speech and BoE Financial Stability Report.

GOLD

Gold started the last week without significant movement, however on Thursday the price stroke to $1,320/ounce which means that within one day it added more than $50/ounce. The main reason was concerns about Iraq situation and possible military action from U.S.  The price reached 2-month high and reversed back. We should expect that the price will keep continue to follow the news from Iraq. If the tension calms down the price will decrease and the other way round. We should also pay attention to the U.S. market and stock market performance.

Economics events (GMT time):

23/06/14

1:45am

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

6:00am

JPY

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

7:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

7:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

8:00am

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

8:00am

EUR

Flash Services PMI

8:30am

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

1:45pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

2:00pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

24/06/14

6:00am

CHF

Trade Balance

8:00am

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

8:30am

GBP

Inflation Report Hearings

8:30am

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

12:05pm

USD

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

2:00pm

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

2:00pm

USD

New Home Sales

2:00pm

USD

Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

25/06/14

3:00am

AUD

RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks

6:00am

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

10:00am

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

12:30pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

12:30pm

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

12:30pm

USD

Final GDP q/q

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

26/06/14

Day 1

EUR

EU Economic Summit

9:30am

GBP

BOE Gov Carney Speaks

9:30am

GBP

BOE Financial Stability Report

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

12:30pm

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

12:30pm

USD

Personal Spending m/m

10:45pm

NZD

Trade Balance

11:05pm

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

11:30pm

JPY

Household Spending y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Unemployment Rate

11:50pm

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

27/06/14

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

6:45am

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

7:00am

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

7:00am

EUR

Spanish Flash CPI y/y

8:30am

GBP

Current Account

8:30am

GBP

Final GDP q/q

Day 1

EUR

EU Economic Summit

1:55pm

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

1:55pm

USD

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

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