June 16, 2014 – Weekly News

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair accepted the previous news about interest rate cut from European Central bank and started to finally move down. By Wednesday the pair almost touched the 1.3500 level which seems to be very strong support but reversed. The U.S. economic data from last week (e.g. Retail Sales) came below expectation so the dollar slightly weakened. On Friday we saw another sharp drop of Euro connected with concerns that lower inflation data which came out from Germany will lead to additional stimulus from ECB. The pair, however, has remained in the area of 1.35-1.36. This week we should keep an eye on the European CPI data and ZEW Economic Sentiment which are coming out on Monday, U.S. CPI will be released on Tuesday but more important will be FOMC statement on Wednesday evening. On Thursday we should pay attention to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair was under pressure last week and deceased from 102.65 to 101.60 (means more than 100 pips) within 4 days. The pair reacted on positive Bank of Japan Monetary Policy statement where is written that the economy has been recovering in a moderate peace and there are no need right now to add more monetary stimulus. The Japanese Yen also benefits from the tension in Iraq and as a safe-haven asset adding some profits. This week on Tuesday the Japanese Monetary Policy Meeting minutes will be released and should increase volatility of the Yen. On Friday Haruhiko Kuroda is about to speak at the National Association of Shinkin Banks.

GBP/USD

Last week the GBP/USD first moved sideways between 1.6740 and 1.6830, however on Thursday the pair took a spike and increased to 1.6990. The pair reacted sharply on the Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s statement where he hinted possible earlier increase of the interest rates. The pair might attack the 1.7000 very soon as the British economy recovering in very good peace. This week we should pay attention to the U.K. CPI which will be released on Monday, The MPC Official Bank Rate Votes on Wednesday and U.K Retail Sales on Thursday.

GOLD

Gold has been traded in a bullish term last week and increased from $1,250/ounce to $1,284/ounce. The price was spurred by worse-than-expected U.S. economic data as well as by increasing tension in Iraq. The price might continue its upward movement if the situation in Iraq escalates. We should pay attention also to the U.S. market where will be several releases this week. On Tuesday we should keep an eye on the U.S. CPI data. On Wednesday the FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be posted and might give us some good trading opportunities.

Economics events (GMT time):

16/06/14

3:20am

AUD

RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks

 9:00am

EUR

CPI y/y

12:30pm

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

1:00pm

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

1:15pm

USD

Industrial Production m/m

17/06/14

1:30am

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

8:00am

EUR

Italian Trade Balance

8:30am

GBP

CPI y/y

9:00am

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

12:30pm

USD

CPI m/m

10:45pm

NZD

Current Account

11:50pm

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

11:50pm

JPY

Trade Balance

18/06/14

12:00am

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

8:30am

GBP

MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes

8:30am

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

9:00am

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

11:15am

GBP

MPC Member Weale Speaks

12:30pm

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

12:30pm

USD

Current Account

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

5:30pm

GBP

MPC Member Haldane Speaks

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Statement

6:00pm

USD

Federal Funds Rate

6:30pm

USD

FOMC Press Conference

10:45pm

NZD

GDP q/q

19/06/14

4:30am

CHF

SNB Financial Stability Report

7:30am

CHF

Libor Rate

7:30am

CHF

SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

7:30am

CHF

SNB Press Conference

8:30am

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

10:00am

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

11:30am

GBP

MPC Member McCafferty Speaks

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

2:00pm

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

20/06/14

6:00am

EUR

German PPI m/m

6:35am

JPY

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

8:00am

EUR

Current Account

8:30am

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

12:30pm

CAD

Core CPI m/m

12:30pm

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

12:30pm

CAD

CPI m/m

12:30pm

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

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