July  14, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 14/07-18/07

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair rebounded from one week low and by Thursday 10th it climbed to 1.3650 level. The main reason for the rebound was FOMC Meeting Minutes report where most of the investors expected some bullish progression in terms of interest rates hike. However, the report summarize the future outlook in the same way as last time which was very disappointing for the market and therefore the U.S. Dollar fell. This week starts with testimony of Mario Draghi who is about to speak on Monday afternoon. We might see some downwards pressure as European Central bank has been dealing with low deflation for past 6 month. On Tuesday and Wednesday the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is about to testify so the volatility should remain high.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair significantly decreased last week when fell from 102.20 (maximum on Monday) to 101.05 (the lowest price on Thursday). The pair moved down due to weaker Dollar as well as in the EUR/USD case but continue the trend as the Japanese Yen gained some profits as the economy has been recovering well and there are no needs for additional monetary stimulus. This week the main event on the Japanese market will be the Monetary Policy Statement report which will be released on Tuesday early morning. The report will be followed by Bank of Japan Press Conference where we might expect some hawkish statements. The pair should experience higher volatility connected to the U.S. testimony of Janet Yellen (on Tuesday and Wednesday).

GBP/USD

Last week the GBP/USD mainly move sideways ranging in a wide channel between 1.7085 and 1.7165. The British pound climbed previously to its almost 6 year high as the British economy performing very well. With high performance there are always high expectation over increasing of the interest rates which are kept low to spur the fragile recovery. Due to the fact that in last report, which was released last Thursday, the Bank of England did not signalized any action soon, the price slightly drop. This week we should keep an eye on the U.K. CPI data and Mark Carney’s testimony (on Tuesday) and Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate release (on Wednesday).

GOLD

The price of Gold was pulled up first by weaker U.S. dollar and in the end of the week by increasing geopolitical tension in Ukraine and Middle East. The price touched the value of $1,344/ounce which is the highest since March 18th.  As we can see the on Friday the stock finished in very positive way and prepared the ground for change of the mood. As new week start the price started to drop sharply and broke through its support. We should pay attention to the testimony of Janet Yellen which is scheduled to be on Tuesday and Wednesday. We should also keep an eye how the situation in Ukraine and Middle East develop.

Economics events (GMT time):

14/07/2014

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

 9:00am

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

5:00pm

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks

11:01pm

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

15/07/2014

1:30am

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

1:30am

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

7:15am

CHF

PPI m/m

8:30am

GBP

CPI y/y

9:00am

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

9:00am

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

9:00am

GBP

BOE Gov Carney Speaks

12:30pm

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

12:30pm

USD

Retail Sales m/m

12:30pm

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

12:30pm

USD

Import Prices m/m

2:00pm

USD

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

2:00pm

USD

Business Inventories m/m

10:45pm

NZD

CPI q/q

16/07/2014

12:30am

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

2:00am

CNY

GDP q/y

2:00am

CNY

Industrial Production y/y

2:00am

CNY

Retail Sales y/y

5:00am

JPY

BOJ Monthly Report

8:30am

GBP

Claimant Count Change

8:30am

GBP

Unemployment Rate

9:00am

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

9:00am

EUR

Trade Balance

12:30pm

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

12:30pm

USD

PPI m/m

12:30pm

USD

Core PPI m/m

1:15pm

USD

Industrial Production m/m

2:00pm

CAD

BOC Monetary Policy Report

2:00pm

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

2:00pm

CAD

Overnight Rate

2:00pm

USD

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

3:15pm

CAD

BOC Press Conference

4:00pm

USD

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

6:00pm

USD

Beige Book

17/07/2014

12:00am

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

1:30am

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence

1:55am

AUD

RBA Assist Gov Edey Speaks

9:00am

EUR

CPI y/y

9:00am

EUR

Core CPI y/y

12:30pm

USD

Building Permits

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

12:30pm

USD

Housing Starts

2:00pm

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

2:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

11:50pm

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

18/07/2014

8:00am

EUR

Current Account

12:30pm

CAD

Core CPI m/m

12:30pm

CAD

CPI m/m

1:55pm

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

1:55pm

USD

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

2:00pm

USD

CB Leading Index m/m

 

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