January 27, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 27/01-31/01

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair had been moving sideways for first 3 days but on Thursday with strong European data and weak American data the pair jumped from 1.3540 level to almost 1.3700 level. The pair tried to climb more on Friday but lost momentum and currently is ranging around 1.3680. This week should be better for trading because of many important economic events. On Monday the traders should pay attention to German Ifo Business Climate which is expected to show growing pattern. On Tuesday the U.S. Core Durable Goods and CB Consumer Confidence will be released. On Wednesday all the analysts and traders will watch the FOMC statement where we expect another tapering of monetary stimulus. On Thursday the major event will be release of U.S. Advance GDP which is predicted to show 3.2% growth.

USD/JPY

Two weeks ago the USD/JPY pair touched last week its lowest price in 4 weeks and rebounded on 102.90 support back up to 104.80. Last week we saw similar situation when the pair strongly slid from 104.80 to 103.00 and then went down even lower to 101.80. The pair reacted on weaker U.S. data and soft performance of U.S. stocks market. The pair already reversed its bearish movement and may pick up this week if the U.S. economic data supports Dollar as well as if FOMC continues to reduce its quantitative easing program. Except of that we should pay attention to Japanese Retail Sales data which will be released on Wednesday. Also on Thursday will be announced very important data when the Japanese CPI will come out.

GBP/USD

Last week the GBP/USD continued its sharp movement up spurred with good U.K. economic data. The pair rose all the way to 1.6650 which is the highest price since May 2011 when the price peaked to 1.6750. However, on Friday the pair reacted negatively on the Mark Carney’s speech where he said that BoE will wait for long term recovery before policy tightens. The price is currently ranging around 1.6500. Except of the U.S. data we should watch this week the U.K. GDP which will be released on Tuesday. The forecast is to see 0.8% growth that means the same figure as last time in October. Any stronger result will pull the pair up.

GOLD

Last week the price of Gold first declined to $1,232/ounce but with weaker U.S. Dollar and softer stock market data the price increased to $1,278/ounce. That’s the highest price since November. The bullish sentiment has already changed to slightly bearish and the price decreased to $1,268/ounce. This week the major event for gold is the Wednesday FOMC statement. Last time (in December) when FOMC started tapering of the $85 billion/month stimulus by $10 billion/moth, the price of Gold dropped to $1,187/ounce within one day. Therefore we should be careful with any buying position and wait for the statement to come.

Economics events (GMT time):

26/01/2014

All Day

AUD

Bank Holiday

11:50pm

JPY

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

11:50pm

JPY

Trade Balance

27/01/2014

 9:00am

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

11:00am

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

3:00pm

USD

New Home Sales

6:00pm

EUR

German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

11:00pm

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

28/01/2014

12:30am

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

Tentative

EUR

German Constitutional Court Ruling

9:30am

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

1:30pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

1:30pm

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

2:00pm

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

3:00pm

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

29/01/2014

2:00am

USD

President Obama Speaks

7:00am

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

7:00am

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

9:00am

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

Tentative

EUR

German 10-y Bond Auction

12:15pm

GBP

BOE Gov Carney Speaks

3:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

7:00pm

USD

FOMC Statement

7:00pm

USD

Federal Funds Rate

8:00pm

NZD

Official Cash Rate

8:00pm

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

9:45pm

NZD

Building Consents m/m

11:50pm

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

30/01/2014

Tentative

AUD

HIA New Home Sales m/m

12:30am

AUD

Import Prices q/q

1:45am

CNY

HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

8:00am

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

8:00am

EUR

Spanish Flash GDP q/q

8:55am

EUR

German Unemployment Change

9:30am

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

1:30pm

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

1:30pm

USD

Advance GDP Price Index q/q

3:00pm

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

3:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

9:45pm

NZD

Trade Balance

11:00pm

NZD

RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks

11:30pm

JPY

Household Spending y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

11:50pm

JPY

Prelim Industrial Production m/m

31/01/2014

12:30am

AUD

PPI q/q

12:30am

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

7:00am

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

7:45am

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

10:00am

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

10:00am

EUR

Unemployment Rate

1:30pm

CAD

GDP m/m

1:30pm

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

1:30pm

USD

Employment Cost Index q/q

1:30pm

USD

Personal Spending m/m

2:45pm

USD

Chicago PMI

2:55pm

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

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