January 23, 2015 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 26/1-30/1

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair started slightly above 1.1550 and remained there until Thursday. Investors were awaiting the European Central bank monetary meeting where most of them expected an announcement of further quantitative easing. The fact that ECB president Mario Draghi not just introduced the additional stimulus but exceeded the expected amount drove the euro sharply down. Within few hours, the pair fell from 1.1640 to 1.1350. On Friday, the negative mood persisted as market priced-in very possible winning of Syriza party in Greek election. Because Syriza party really won, the pair tested the 1.1100 level. This week, we should expect some price correction after last week’s 550 pips drop. However, if the FOMC statement, which will be released on Wednesday, support the strong U.S. recovery, we might see the pair falling further down. We should also pay attention to the U.S. German Ifo Business Climate (which is scheduled on Monday), the U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders (which will be announced on Tuesday) and the EU CPI data (which will come out on Friday).

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair offered us more trading opportunities last week. The pair was moving sideways in wide channel between 1.5075 and 1.5210 until last Thursday. On Wednesday, we saw a sharper movement downwards connected with disappointing U.K report. Two Mo0netary policy committee members, which had been voting for interest rate hike since August 2014, changed their opinion and jointed the dovish club. Any hopes of earlier interest rate rise disappeared. The British pound then depreciated on the back of further ECB stimulus. The pair dipped to 1.4950 but currently is traded around 1.5000 level. This week on Tuesday, the U.K. GDP data and U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders data will come out and should bring higher volatility. Do not forget about Wednesday’s FOMC statement which may push the pair even lower.

GOLD

Last week, the price of gold reached its 5-month high. The price of safe-haven assets was driven by nervousness on the markets before the European Central Bank decision. As Mario Draghi introduced further bond-buying program the stock market revived and started to go up. Those who held their previous positions in gold started to sell it and therefore the price decreased back below $1,300/ounce. We should expect that the downtrend would continue if there will be no surprising announcements. The stock market will be another indicator whether to expect the price going further down and staying high. The main even of this week, which should be reflected on the yellow metal, is FOMC statement which will come out on Wednesday.

Economics events (GMT time):

26/01/15

2:00am

NZD

Credit Card Spending y/y

 9:00am

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

9:30am

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

All Day

EUR

Eurogroup Meetings

11:50pm

JPY

SPPI y/y

27/01/15

12:30am

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

2:00am

CNY

CB Leading Index m/m

9:30am

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

1:30pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

2:00pm

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

2:45pm

USD

Flash Services PMI

3:00pm

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

3:00pm

USD

New Home Sales

3:00pm

USD

Richmond Manufacturing Index

11:30pm

AUD

MI Leading Index m/m

28/01/15

12:30am

AUD

CPI q/q

12:30am

AUD

Trimmed Mean CPI q/q

7:00am

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator

7:00am

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

7:00am

EUR

German Import Prices m/m

3:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

7:00pm

USD

FOMC Statement

7:00pm

USD

Federal Funds Rate

8:00pm

NZD

Official Cash Rate

8:00pm

NZD

RBNZ Rate Statement

9:45pm

NZD

Trade Balance

11:00pm

AUD

CB Leading Index m/m

11:50pm

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

29/01/15

12:30am

AUD

Import Prices q/q

7:00am

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

8:55am

EUR

German Unemployment Change

11:00am

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

3:00pm

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

3:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

9:45pm

NZD

Building Consents m/m

11:30pm

JPY

Household Spending y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

11:30pm

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Unemployment Rate

11:50pm

JPY

Prelim Industrial Production m/m

30/01/15

12:05am

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

12:30am

AUD

PPI q/q

5:00am

JPY

Housing Starts y/y

7:00am

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

8:00am

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

8:00am

EUR

Spanish Flash GDP q/q

9:00am

EUR

Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate

9:30am

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

9:30am

GBP

Mortgage Approvals

10:00am

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

10:00am

EUR

Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y

10:00am

EUR

Unemployment Rate

1:30pm

CAD

GDP m/m

1:30pm

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1:30pm

USD

Employment Cost Index q/q

2:45pm

USD

Chicago PMI

3:00pm

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

3:00pm

USD

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

 

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