January 19, 2015 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 19/1-23/1

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair started in a sideways movement and it seemed that the pair would struggle to break the support at 1.17. However, quite surprisingly the negative stimulus came not from Euro-zone but from Switzerland when the national bank decided to cancel the minimal exchange rate of EUR/CHF, which was valid from 2011. Immediately as they introduced these changes, the Euro drastically depreciated and the pair dropped as far as 1.1560. Despite negative data from U.S. market, the EUR/USD pair has remained under pressure and by the end of the week touched new 11-year lows. The pair may continue downwards before this week main event – the European Central Bank press conference where is widely expected that ECB will increase monetary stimulus.  Some analyst predict that the price can go as low as 1.10. Except of this event, pay attention to Tuesday’s EU ZEW German Economic Sentiment and to Friday’s European Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair was moving in a sideways movement during the last week. The actual channel where the price ranged can be considered wide – from 1.5075 to 1.5270. The pair was mainly driven by the U.S. Dollar which depreciated in the first half of the week as the disappointing U.S. data cut the demand for the Greenback, however in the second half the demand increased as the other currencies struggled. This week we expect the pair to continue sideways within the wide channel. British pound might appreciated as it is the only stable and well-trusted currency in Europe but the Dollar might appreciated as well. We should see some higher volatility on Wednesday when the U.K. labour data comes out. On Friday, keep an eye on the U.K. Retail Sales data.

GOLD

The price of gold has been increasing since the year started and already added more than 8%! The price climbed last week from $1,220/ounce to $1,280/ounce. The reason behind this jump came from Europe. Firstly, it was the decision of Swiss National Bank to erase their cap on the Swiss franc before the European Central Bank will introduce increasing of the massive bond-buying program which is widely expected to happen this week on Thursday. This decision was reflected on the safe-haven assets like yellow metal which within a day added $40/ounce. Secondly, the safe-haven demand picked up on the back of the downgrading Russia economy. Some traders believes that the price may go all the way to $1,300/ounce. Nevertheless, we should be careful with any longer-term buying positions as stock market can take over and cut the price of gold.

Economics events (GMT time):

19/1/2015

12:30am

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

4:30am

JPY

Revised Industrial Production m/m

5:00am

JPY

Consumer Confidence

 8:15am

CHF

PPI m/m

9:00am

EUR

Current Account

11:00am

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

All Day

USD

Bank Holiday

1:30pm

CAD

Foreign Securities Purchases

9:00pm

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence

20/1/2015

2:00am

CNY

GDP q/y

2:00am

CNY

Retail Sales y/y

7:00am

EUR

German PPI m/m

10:00am

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

10:00am

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

1:30pm

CAD

Manufacturing Sales m/m

3:00pm

USD

FOMC Member Powell Speaks

9:45pm

NZD

CPI q/q

11:30pm

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

21/1/2015

2:00am

USD

President Obama Speaks

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

9:30am

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

9:30am

GBP

Claimant Count Change

9:30am

GBP

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

9:30am

GBP

MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes

9:30am

GBP

Unemployment Rate

1:30pm

CAD

Wholesale Sales m/m

1:30pm

USD

Building Permits

1:30pm

USD

Housing Starts

3:00pm

CAD

BOC Monetary Policy Report

3:00pm

CAD

BOC Rate Statement

3:00pm

CAD

Overnight Rate

4:15pm

CAD

BOC Press Conference

9:30pm

NZD

Business NZ Manufacturing Index

22/1/2015

12:00am

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

5:00am

JPY

BOJ Monthly Report

11:00am

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

12:45pm

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1:30pm

EUR

ECB Press Conference

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

3:00pm

EUR

Consumer Confidence

3:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

4:00pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

23/1/2015

1:35am

JPY

Flash Manufacturing PMI

1:45am

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

8:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

8:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

9:00am

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

9:00am

EUR

Flash Services PMI

9:30am

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

1:30pm

CAD

Core CPI m/m

1:30pm

CAD

Core Retail Sales m/m

1:30pm

CAD

CPI m/m

1:30pm

CAD

Retail Sales m/m

2:45pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

3:00pm

USD

Existing Home Sales

3:00pm

USD

CB Leading Index m/m

 

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