February 3, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 03/02-07/02

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair decreased by 1.73%. The pair mainly fell on Thursday – the day after Fed announced another cut in monetary stimulus (from $75 billion/month to $65 billion/month). On Thursday and on Friday we saw that German and EU CPI came out below expectation which might lead to another cut in interest rates. The EUR/USD pair finished the week below 1.3500 on 1.3478. This week the main event will be the U.S. Non-farm payrolls which will be released on Friday. We should pay attention to some pre-data before the actual NFP: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q. On Thursday the EU Minimum Bid Rate will be announced followed by Press Conference.

USD/JPY

Last week the USD/JPY pair has been moving sideways between 101.80 and 103.40. The pair did not react on stronger U.S. Dollar because Yen was benefiting as a safe-haven currency. However, most of the analysts predict that Yen will decline against U.S. Dollar on a longer-term outlook. This week the pair will be driven by U.S. data and speculation over Friday’s Non-farm payrolls.  From the Japanese market we should pay attention to Tuesday’s Average Cash Earnings.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair finished last week below 1.6440 which means decreased by 0.3%. British pound suffered from BoE Governor Mark Carney’s speech where he was slightly dovish but the main decline came with strengthening of the U.S. Dollar on Thursday. This week is busy on U.K. and U.S. economic data. On Monday we should keep an eye on U.K. Manufacturing PMI and U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday the U.K. Construction PMI will come out. On Wednesday the U.K. Services PMI and U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released. On Thursday very important U.K. Official Bank rate plus MPC Rate Statement will be posted. And on Friday the U.S. Non-farm payrolls.

GOLD

The price of Gold slid from last Monday’s $1,278/ounce to last Friday’s $1,240/ounce and finished on $1,244/ounce. The price was first pulled by physical demand before Chinese New year’s holidays. After the physical demand weakened on Thursday and Fed decide to further scale back its monetary stimulus the price rapidly fell. This week due to the fact that the Chinese market has remained closed we should expect less volatility but look on U.S. data. With Friday’s Non-farm payrolls we should be able to find a good trading opportunities.

Economics events (GMT time):

3/3/2014

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

12:30am

AUD

Building Approvals m/m

12:49am

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI

8:45am

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

9:30am

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

2:00pm

USD

Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

3:00pm

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

11:50pm

JPY

Monetary Base y/y

3/4/2014

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

3:30am

AUD

Cash Rate

3:30am

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

9:30am

GBP

Construction PMI

3:00pm

USD

Factory Orders m/m

9:45pm

NZD

Employment Change q/q

9:45pm

NZD

Unemployment Rate

3/5/2014

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

1:30am

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

8:15am

EUR

Spanish Services PMI

8:45am

EUR

Italian Services PMI

9:30am

GBP

Services PMI

10:00am

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

1:15pm

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

1:30pm

CAD

Building Permits m/m

3:00pm

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

3:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

5:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

3/6/2014

All Day

NZD

Bank Holiday

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

12:30am

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

12:30am

AUD

Trade Balance

3:45am

JPY

30-y Bond Auction

11:00am

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

12:00pm

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

12:00pm

GBP

Official Bank Rate

Tentative

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

12:45pm

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

1:30pm

CAD

Trade Balance

1:30pm

EUR

ECB Press Conference

1:30pm

USD

Trade Balance

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

1:30pm

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

1:30pm

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

3:00pm

CAD

Ivey PMI

3/7/2014

12:30am

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

7:00am

EUR

German Trade Balance

8:00am

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

8:15am

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

9:30am

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

9:30am

GBP

Trade Balance

11:00am

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1:30pm

CAD

Employment Change

1:30pm

CAD

Unemployment Rate

1:30pm

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Rate

1:30pm

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

3:00pm

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

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