February 24, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 24/02-28/02

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair slightly increased by 0.6%, however the movement is more consider to be sideways then upwards. The pair kept the whole week its price between support and resistance and despite several important fundamental releases the pair did not move significantly. The data came out from both markets (U.S. and EU) quite weaker-than-expected and therefor the price could not move one direction. Yesterday, Mario Draghi spoke on the G20 meeting and said that on March 6th the ECB will decide whether they will have to fight with deflation or not. That gives negative sentiment on Euro and we might see some weakening this week. This week we should pay attention to German Ifo Climate index on Monday, the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders on Thursday and U.S. GDP data on Friday. This week on Thursday Janet Yellen (Fed Chairman) will testify before senate.

USD/JPY

Last week the USD/JPY pair started around 101.80 and finished around 102.50. The pair increased several times. Firstly on Tuesday, when the BoJ supported more monetary stimulus and secondly after FOMC meeting minutes, when traders confirmed that the tapering of QE will continue. This week we should watch the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence index on Tuesday, the U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders, the Japanese Core CPI and Retail Sales On Thursday and the U.S. GDP on Friday.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD the pair opened on its 4-year high (1.6810) but the sentiment changed and the pair slid during last week to 1.6610 means weakened by 1.2%. The British pound suffered on disappointing inflation data and lower-than-expected Unemployment rate. Part of the movement down can be also described as price correction after reaching its maximum. This week except of the event driving U.S. Dollar described already above we should keep an eye on the U.K. GDP which will be released on Wednesday and Mark Carney’s (BoE Governor) speech on Friday.

GOLD

The price of Gold after reaching its 3-months $1,331/ounce last Monday the sentiment slightly reversed and slid to Thursday’s $1,310/ounce mainly due to FOMC Meeting Minutes report which supported the tapering of monetary stimulus despite some negative data which are coming out lately (disappointing Non-farm Payrolls ect). Fed will also probably change its target Unemployment rate for increasing interest rate as the Unemployment rate almost touching the target but the labor market is still unstable. We saw some strengthening as this week started connected with the G20 meeting. European Central Bank might act soon if the inflation data point on deflation. The political situation in Ukraine may also pull the price up. We should watch the U.S. data this week and especially the testimony of Janet Yellen on Thursday.

Economics events (GMT time):

24/02/14

 9:00am

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

10:00am

EUR

CPI y/y

2:00pm

USD

Flash Services PMI

11:50pm

JPY

CSPI y/y

25/02/14

2:00am

NZD

Inflation Expectations q/q

7:00am

EUR

German Final GDP q/q

9:30am

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

11:00am

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

12:45pm

EUR

EU Economic Forecasts

1:30pm

CAD

Corporate Profits q/q

2:00pm

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

2:00pm

USD

HPI m/m

3:00pm

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

3:00pm

USD

Richmond Manufacturing Index

3:10pm

USD

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks

26/02/14

7:00am

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

9:25am

GBP

MPC Member Broadbent Speaks

9:30am

GBP

Second Estimate GDP q/q

9:30am

GBP

Prelim Business Investment q/q

3:00pm

USD

New Home Sales

3:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

9:45pm

NZD

Trade Balance

27/02/14

12:30am

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure q/q

12:30am

USD

FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

6:45am

CHF

GDP q/q

7:00am

EUR

German Import Prices m/m

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

8:15am

CHF

Employment Level

8:55am

EUR

German Unemployment Change

9:00am

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

Tentative

EUR

Italian 10-y Bond Auction

1:30pm

CAD

Current Account

1:30pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

1:30pm

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

3:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

9:45pm

NZD

Building Consents m/m

11:15pm

JPY

Manufacturing PMI

11:30pm

JPY

Household Spending y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI y/y

11:30pm

JPY

National Core CPI y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Unemployment Rate

11:50pm

JPY

Prelim Industrial Production m/m

11:50pm

JPY

Retail Sales y/y

28/02/14

12:00am

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

12:30am

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

7:00am

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

8:00am

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

10:00am

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

10:00am

EUR

Unemployment Rate

10:00am

EUR

Italian Prelim CPI m/m

10:00am

USD

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Tentative

EUR

Spanish HPI q/q

1:30pm

CAD

GDP m/m

1:30pm

USD

Prelim GDP q/q

1:30pm

USD

Prelim GDP Price Index q/q

2:45pm

USD

Chicago PMI

2:55pm

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

2:55pm

USD

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

3:00pm

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

3:15pm

USD

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

3:15pm

USD

FOMC Member Stein Speaks

3:30pm

GBP

BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks

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