February 17, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 17/02-21/02

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair moved sideways first two days between 1.3640 and 1.3680 however once on Wednesday Benoit Coeure (European Central Bank’s member) said that negative interest rates are seriously discussed the pair dropped to 1.3560. However, the sentiment changed almost immediately after and the pair climbed to 1.3710 by the end of the week. The weather in U.S. slowing down the economic recovery and the U.S. Dollar suffers.  This week might start without any significant movement due to U.S. holidays and no economic events. On Tuesday we should pay attention to ZEW Economic Sentiment of German and EU. On Wednesday the FOMC Meeting Minutes are coming out. On Thursday the main events will be German Flash Manufacturing PMI and U.S. Core CPI plus probably the second part of testimony which was postponed due to snow storm. On Friday the EU Economic Forecast will be released.

USD/JPY

Last week the USD/JPY pair fell from 102.70 level to 101.70 in a downward channel. The Japanese Yen profited from poor performance of emerging markets and also from weaker U.S. Dollar which depreciated due to disappointing economic data. The new week started again with bearish movement down but as the Japanese GDP showed 0.3% increase of GDP instead of expected 0.7% the pair slightly rebounded. Very important event of this week will be the BoJ Monetary Policy Statement followed by Press Conference on Tuesday. The U.S. Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will be also important and should give us some trading opportunities.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair finished last week on its highest price since November 2009. The week added last week surprising 400 pips when the pair increased from 1.6390 to 1.6800. The British Pound benefited from last Inflation Report and Carney’s Speaks. The U.K. economy is strong and the data are coming out usually better-than-expected which makes the currency attractive especially in times when the U.S. market suffers because of the weather. Traders are now afraid of slower pace of taper as the U.S. data are coming out under expectation. This week we should pay attention to U.K. CPI on Tuesday. The main events will be on Wednesday when the U.K. Claimant Count Change, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes and Unemployment Rate. The same day we should watch the FOMC minutes. On Friday the U.K. Retail Sales will be released.

GOLD

The price of Gold increased to its 3-months high from last Monday’s $1,264/ounce to last Friday’s $1,318/ounce. The price was spurred by bad economic data and rising fears over the future Fed tapering. As the market opened this week the price jumped to $1,329/ounce. The market will now closely look for the Wednesday’s MFOMC Policy Statement. Any dovish information might help the price of gold to climb more. However, if the data start to come better-than-expected and the fears will disappear, the price might fell back down.

Economics events (GMT time):

02/17/2014

UK

Rightmove House Prices MoM

02/17/2014

UK

Rightmove House Prices YoY

02/17/2014

Australia

New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM

02/17/2014

Australia

New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY

02/17/2014

Japan

Industrial Production MoM

02/17/2014

Japan

Industrial Production YoY

02/17/2014

Japan

Capacity Utilization MoM

02/17/2014

EU

Bloomberg Feb. Eurozone Economic Survey

02/17/2014

German

Bloomberg Feb. Germany Economic Survey

02/17/2014

Switzerland

Foreign Direct Investment YoY

02/18/2014

Australia

RBA Release Minutes of February Meeting

02/18/2014

Japan

Machine Tool Orders YoY

02/18/2014

EU

EU27 New Car Registrations

02/18/2014

UK

Bloomberg Feb. United Kingdom Economic Survey

02/18/2014

EU

ECB Current Account SA

02/18/2014

EU

Current Account NSA

02/18/2014

UK

CPI MoM

02/18/2014

UK

CPI YoY

02/18/2014

UK

CPI Core YoY

02/18/2014

UK

Retail Price Index

02/18/2014

UK

RPI MoM

02/18/2014

UK

RPI YoY

02/18/2014

UK

RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY)

02/18/2014

UK

PPI Input NSA MoM

02/18/2014

UK

PPI Input NSA YoY

02/18/2014

UK

PPI Output NSA MoM

02/18/2014

UK

PPI Output NSA YoY

02/18/2014

UK

PPI Output Core NSA MoM

02/18/2014

UK

PPI Output Core NSA YoY

02/18/2014

UK

ONS House Price YoY

02/18/2014

German

ZEW Survey Current Situation

02/18/2014

German

ZEW Survey Expectations

02/18/2014

EU

ZEW Survey Expectations

02/18/2014

Canada

Int’l Securities Transactions

02/18/2014

US

Empire Manufacturing

02/18/2014

US

Revisions of Consumer Price Index

02/18/2014

US

Net Long-term TIC Flows

02/18/2014

US

Total Net TIC Flows

02/18/2014

Canada

Bloomberg Nanos Confidence

02/18/2014

US

NAHB Housing Market Index

02/18/2014

Australia

Conf. Board Leading Index MoM

02/18/2014

Japan

BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target

02/18/2014

Japan

Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

02/19/2014

Australia

Skilled Vacancies MoM

02/19/2014

Australia

Bloomberg Feb. Australia Economic Survey

02/19/2014

Australia

Wage Cost Index QoQ

02/19/2014

Australia

Wage Cost Index YoY

02/19/2014

Switzerland

MNI February Business Indicator

02/19/2014

Japan

All Industry Activity Index MoM

02/19/2014

Japan

Leading Index CI

02/19/2014

Japan

Coincident Index

02/19/2014

Japan

Bank of Japan’s Monthly Economic Report for February

02/19/2014

Japan

Nationwide Dept Sales YoY

02/19/2014

Japan

Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY

02/19/2014

UK

Bank of England Releases Minutes from Feb 5-6 Meeting

02/19/2014

UK

Claimant Count Rate

02/19/2014

UK

Jobless Claims Change

02/19/2014

UK

Average Weekly Earnings 3M/YoY

02/19/2014

UK

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/YoY

02/19/2014

UK

ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths

02/19/2014

UK

Employment Change 3M/3M

02/19/2014

EU

Construction Output MoM

02/19/2014

EU

Construction Output YoY

02/19/2014

US

MBA Mortgage Applications

02/19/2014

Canada

Wholesale Trade Sales MoM

02/19/2014

US

BLS Releases New PPI — Final Demand-Intermediate Demand

02/19/2014

US

PPI Final Demand MoM

02/19/2014

US

PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM

02/19/2014

US

PPI Final Demand YoY

02/19/2014

US

PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY

02/19/2014

US

Housing Starts

02/19/2014

US

Housing Starts MoM

02/19/2014

US

Building Permits

02/19/2014

US

Building Permits MoM

02/19/2014

US

Fed Releases Minutes from Jan 28-29 FOMC Meeting

02/19/2014

Japan

Trade Balance

02/19/2014

Japan

Trade Balance Adjusted

02/19/2014

Japan

Exports YoY

02/19/2014

Japan

Imports YoY

02/19/2014

Japan

Japan Buying Foreign Bonds

02/19/2014

Japan

Japan Buying Foreign Stocks

02/19/2014

Japan

Foreign Buying Japan Bonds

02/19/2014

Japan

Foreign Buying Japan Stocks

02/19/2014

Japan

Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for February

02/20/2014

Australia

RBA FX Transactions Market

02/20/2014

Australia

RBA FX Transactions Government

02/20/2014

Australia

RBA FX Transactions Other

02/20/2014

Switzerland

HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI

02/20/2014

Switzerland

Bloomberg Feb. China Economic Survey

02/20/2014

Japan

Supermarket Sales YoY

02/20/2014

Japan

Convenience Store Sales YoY

02/20/2014

German

PPI MoM

02/20/2014

German

PPI YoY

02/20/2014

German

PMI Manufacturing

02/20/2014

German

PMI Services

02/20/2014

EU

PMI Manufacturing

02/20/2014

EU

PMI Services

02/20/2014

EU

PMI Composite

02/20/2014

UK

CBI Trends Total Orders

02/20/2014

UK

CBI Trends Selling Prices

02/20/2014

US

CPI MoM

02/20/2014

US

CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM

02/20/2014

US

CPI YoY

02/20/2014

US

CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY

02/20/2014

US

CPI Core Index SA

02/20/2014

US

CPI Index NSA

02/20/2014

US

Initial Jobless Claims

02/20/2014

US

Continuing Claims

02/20/2014

US

Markit US PMI Preliminary

02/20/2014

US

Bloomberg Economic Expectations

02/20/2014

US

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

02/20/2014

US

Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

02/20/2014

US

Mortgage Delinquencies

02/20/2014

US

MBA Mortgage Foreclosures

02/20/2014

EU

Consumer Confidence

02/20/2014

US

Leading Index

02/21/2014

German

Finance Ministry Presents Monthly Report for February

02/21/2014

UK

Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM

02/21/2014

UK

Retail Sales Ex Auto YoY

02/21/2014

UK

Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM

02/21/2014

UK

Retail Sales Incl. Auto YoY

02/21/2014

UK

Public Finances (PSNCR)

02/21/2014

UK

PSNB ex Interventions

02/21/2014

UK

Public Sector Net Borrowing

02/21/2014

Canada

Retail Sales MoM

02/21/2014

Canada

Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM

02/21/2014

Canada

CPI NSA MoM

02/21/2014

Canada

CPI YoY

02/21/2014

Canada

CPI Core MoM

02/21/2014

Canada

CPI Core YoY

02/21/2014

Canada

CPI SA MoM

02/21/2014

Canada

CPI Core SA MoM

02/21/2014

Canada

Consumer Price Index

02/21/2014

US

Existing Home Sales Revisions

02/21/2014

US

Existing Home Sales

02/21/2014

US

Existing Home Sales MoM

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