August 4, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 04/08-08/08

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD fell to its lowest level since November 2013 after a range of economic data. The Eurozone CPI was lower than expected and increased by its slowest pace since 2009. This added more pressure onto the European Central Bank to implement tools to spike inflation. Before Friday’s Non – farm Payrolls data, the pair dropped to 1.3370. However, the U.S. labour data was not so strong and consequently the pair returned to 1.3440.

This week we should watch the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data (on Tuesday). More importantly, however, the European Central bank minimum bid rate release will be released on Thursday and will be followed by a press conference. We should expect all currencies to decrease before this meeting as the market is now expecting additional stimulus will be introduced.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY increased significantly during the past week. Within three days, the pair rose from 101.7 to 103.05. However, on Friday the pair dropped to 102.50 as the U.S. labour data disappointed the market. The uptrend was caused by both currencies; the U.S. dollar was strengthening while the Japanese Yen weakened after the Japanese Industrial Production shrank more than expected (-3.3% instead of -1%).

This week the pair will be influenced mainly by the U.S. market but on Friday we should watch the Japanese Monetary Policy Statement which might provide insight for the future of the BoJ monetary policy.

GBP/USD

Last week the GBP/USD continued its downtrend and decreased from 1.7000 to 1.6820, which is by almost 200 pips. The pair suffered from disappointing UK data when the Manufacturing PMI declined to its lowest level in a year. Despite most pairs rising after Friday’s NFP, the GBP/USD remained low.

This week we expect a lot of volatility, especially on Thursday when the Official rate for the U.K. will be announced. .We should also pay attention to the U.K. Construction PMI (on Monday) and Manufacturing Production (on Wednesday).

GOLD

Last week, Gold started around $1,305/ounce but dropped to $1280/ounce on Thursday before the U.S. labour data was released. As U.S. data came out and speculation of strong data disappeared, the price climbed and finished the week at $1,293.5/ounce.

Gold has recently been declining as second quarter earnings reports from the U.S. stock market have spurred demand for riskier assets. The metal usually benefits from geopolitical tension but we can see traders seem to be overlooking the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East.

This week we should watch the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI and Factory Orders which will be released on Tuesday.

Economics events (GMT time):

4.8.2014

12:30amAUDMI Inflation Gauge m/m
1:00amNZDANZ Commodity Prices m/m
1:30amAUDRetail Sales m/m
1:30amAUDANZ Job Advertisements m/m
7:00amEURSpanish Unemployment Change
8:30amEURSentix Investor Confidence
8:30amGBPConstruction PMI
9:00amEURPPI m/m
All DayCADBank Holiday
TentativeUSDLoan Officer Survey
11:30pmAUDAIG Services Index

5.8.2014

1:30amAUDTrade Balance
1:45amCNYHSBC Services PMI
3:45amJPY10-y Bond Auction
4:30amAUDCash Rate
4:30amAUDRBA Rate Statement
5th-8thGBPHalifax HPI m/m
7:15amEURSpanish Services PMI
7:45amEURItalian Services PMI
8:00amEURFinal Services PMI
8:30amGBPServices PMI
9:00amEURRetail Sales m/m
1:45pmUSDFinal Services PMI
2:00pmUSDISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
2:00pmUSDFactory Orders m/m
2:00pmUSDIBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:45pmNZDEmployment Change q/q
10:45pmNZDUnemployment Rate
10:45pmNZDLabor Cost Index q/q
11:01pmGBPBRC Shop Price Index y/y

6.8.2014

5:00amJPYLeading Indicators
6:00amEURGerman Factory Orders m/m
7:15amCHFCPI m/m
8:00amEURItalian Industrial Production m/m
8:10amEURRetail PMI
8:30amGBPManufacturing Production m/m
8:30amGBPIndustrial Production m/m
9:00amEURItalian Prelim GDP q/q
12:30pmCADTrade Balance
12:30pmUSDTrade Balance
2:00pmGBPNIESR GDP Estimate
2:30pmUSDCrude Oil Inventories
11:30pmAUDAIG Construction Index

7.8.2014

1:30amAUDEmployment Change
1:30amAUDUnemployment Rate
5:45amCHFSECO Consumer Climate
6:00amEURGerman Industrial Production m/m
6:45amEURFrench Trade Balance
7:00amCHFForeign Currency Reserves
TentativeEURSpanish 10-y Bond Auction
11:00amGBPAsset Purchase Facility
11:00amGBPOfficial Bank Rate
TentativeGBPMPC Rate Statement
11:45amEURMinimum Bid Rate
12:30pmCADBuilding Permits m/m
12:30pmEURECB Press Conference
12:30pmUSDUnemployment Claims
2:00pmCADIvey PMI
2:30pmUSDNatural Gas Storage
7:00pmUSDConsumer Credit m/m
11:50pmJPYCurrent Account
11:50pmJPYBank Lending y/y

8.8.2014

1:30amAUDRBA Monetary Policy Statement
1:30amAUDHome Loans m/m
TentativeJPYMonetary Policy Statement
5:00amJPYEconomy Watchers Sentiment
5:45amCHFUnemployment Rate
6:00amEURGerman Trade Balance
TentativeJPYBOJ Press Conference
6:45amEURFrench Industrial Production m/m
6:45amEURFrench Gov Budget Balance
8:30amGBPTrade Balance
8:30amGBPConstruction Output m/m
12:30pmCADEmployment Change
12:30pmCADUnemployment Rate
12:30pmUSDPrelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
12:30pmUSDPrelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
2:00pmUSDWholesale Inventories m/m
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