April 6, 2015 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 6/4-10/4

 

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD erased almost 200 pips and dropped towards 1.0700. Losses were seen as speculation began ahead of Friday’s U.S. labor data. The first piece of pre-data came out last Wednesday and pulled the pair higher as the figure was lower-than expected. However, before the actual NFP release the pair returned close to 1.0900. The data was disappointing and showed 126K newly employed people, below the expected 246K; this pulled the pair up to 1.1025. The unemployment rate remained at 5.5% and the Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3%.

 

The impact of the data was not fully priced in as many markets were closed for Good Friday. We should therefore expect high volatility during the American session. European markets will remain closed for Easter Monday. Traders should watch the U.S FOMC Monetary Meeting Minutes report which will be released on Wednesday.

 

GBP/USD

Last week, the GBP/USD traded sideways between 1.4750 and 1.4875. Volatility was low as economic data from both countries (the U.S. and U.K.) came out below expectations. In addition, the outcome of the upcoming British elections is uncertain with no clear winning party. However, on Friday, the U.S. Non-farm payrolls data came out and showed half the expected figure. This pushed the pair through its resistance and it reached a high of 1.4900.

This week should start quietly as the U.K. market will be closed for Easter observations. However, later on Monday, U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing data will be released and FOMC member, William Dudley, will speak about the economic outlook so volatility should slowly pick up. On Tuesday, U.K. Services PMI data will be published. On Wednesday, watch the U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes and on Thursday, the U.K. Official Bank rate will be announced.

GOLD

Last week, Gold reversed its previous bearish sentiment and increased from $1,180/ounce to $1,217/ounce. The price climbed following weaker than expected U.S labour data which threatened the possibility of an interest rate hike in the U.S. However, despite the fact that the data came out at the lowest figure since February 2014, the Fed will search for additional information before making a conclusion.

It is possible that the data could be upgraded afterwards. For example, in January, the actual Non-farm payroll figure was upgraded by 77K. This week we should watch the U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes which should create great trading opportunities.

 

Economics events (GMT time):

6/4/2015

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

All Day

GBP

Bank Holiday

12:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

1:45pm

USD

Final Services PMI

2:00pm

CAD

Ivey PMI

2:00pm

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2:00pm

USD

Labor Market Conditions Index m/m

2:30pm

CAD

BOC Business Outlook Survey

11:30pm

AUD

AIG Services Index

7/4/2015

1:30am

AUD

Retail Sales m/m

1:30am

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements m/m

4:30am

AUD

Cash Rate

4:30am

AUD

RBA Rate Statement

7:00am

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

8:00am

EUR

Final Services PMI

8:30am

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

8:30am

GBP

Services PMI

8:30am

GBP

FPC Meeting Minutes

9:00am

EUR

PPI m/m

2:00pm

USD

JOLTS Job Openings

2:00pm

USD

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

7:00pm

USD

Consumer Credit m/m

11:01pm

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index y/y

11:50pm

JPY

Current Account

8/4/2015

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

5:00am

JPY

Economy Watchers Sentiment

6:00am

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

6:45am

EUR

French Trade Balance

7:15am

CHF

CPI m/m

8:10am

EUR

Retail PMI

8:30am

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

8:30am

GBP

Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q

9:00am

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

1:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

5:01pm

USD

10-y Bond Auction

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

11:01pm

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

11:30pm

AUD

AIG Construction Index

9/4/2015

5:00am

JPY

BOJ Monthly Report

6:00am

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

6:00am

EUR

German Trade Balance

6:00am

JPY

Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y

8:30am

GBP

Trade Balance

11:00am

GBP

Official Bank Rate

11:00am

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

Tentative

GBP

MPC Rate Statement

12:30pm

CAD

Building Permits m/m

12:30pm

CAD

NHPI m/m

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

2:00pm

USD

Wholesale Inventories m/m

2:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

5:01pm

USD

30-y Bond Auction

11:50pm

JPY

Bank Lending y/y

10/4/2015

1:30am

AUD

Home Loans m/m

1:30am

CNY

CPI y/y

1:30am

CNY

PPI y/y

5:45am

CHF

Unemployment Rate

6:45am

EUR

French Gov Budget Balance

6:45am

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

8:30am

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

8:30am

GBP

Construction Output m/m

8:30am

GBP

Industrial Production m/m

12:15pm

CAD

Housing Starts

12:30pm

CAD

Employment Change

12:30pm

CAD

Unemployment Rate

12:30pm

USD

FOMC Member Lacker Speaks

12:30pm

USD

Import Prices m/m

2:00pm

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

6:00pm

USD

Federal Budget Balance
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