April 28, 2014 – Weekly News

WEEKLY REPORT 28/04-02/05

EUR/USD

Last week the EUR/USD pair continued moving sideways between 1.3785 and 1.3860. The pair slightly increased as the EU Flash Manufacturing PMI came out better than expected and despite dovish statements from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, the pair has remained strong. Traders seems to rely on the strong Euro rather than on the Dollar which might be change soon if the ECB starts to add stimulus. This week there will be several data coming out which we should watch. First the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence which will comes out on Tuesday. On Wednesday we should pay attention to EU CPI Flash Estimate and U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Advance GDP and FOMC Statement. On Thursday Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is about to speak at the Independent Community Bankers of America’s Annual Policy Summit but this day might be quiet as most of the European markets remains closed due to public holiday. On Friday we should take the opportunity and trade the Non-farm employment change.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair decreased last week from 102.70 to 102.00 level. The main movement we did not see from the Japanese CPI data as most of analyst expect but from the escalating tension in Ukraine. The political crisis between Ukraine and Russia seemed to fade with the agreement signed in Geneva, however in the end of the week we saw that the tension increased again. The U.S. and European Union are going to impose another sanctions against Russia probably already today (on Monday). That might push the pair lower as investors will move to safe-haven currencies. Except of this, we should pay attention to Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and BoJ Outlook Report plus U.S. FOMC Statement which are coming out on Wednesday. On Friday we should not forget about the U.S. Non-farm payrolls.

GBP/USD

Last week the GBP/USD did not exceed the previous highs despite great U.K. data. That might sign that the pair is already now overvaulted and the price has tension to go down. The pair can offer us great trading opportunities this week. Namely on Tuesday the U.K. GDP is expected to increase by 0.9% which is the highest tempo since October 2012 and proving the U.K. economic recovery. Such a good outlook will pull the pair up but as we wrote before it is unlikely that the pair remains as high as 1.6840. On Thursday the Manufacturing PMI will be released and cause some volatility. The main event of this week will be the Friday’s U.S. Non-farm payrolls.

GOLD

Gold offered us last week great trading opportunities. First as the U.S. stocks were performing really well the price dropped as gold lost its shine. However, as the tension in Ukraine increased investors started to buy the safe-haven asset and the price jumped from Thursday’s $1,270/ounce to current $1,305/ounce. We saw in past that the price immediately as the tension calms down will decline back down so we suggest to trade short-term trades. We should pay attention to U.S. data this week which will finish with U.S. Non-farm payrolls. On Wednesday very important for the price of gold will be the FOMC statement.

Economics events (GMT time):

28/04/14

6:00am

EUR

German Import Prices m/m

 Tentative

EUR

German Buba Monthly Report

2:00pm

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

10:45pm

NZD

Trade Balance

29/04/14

All Day

JPY

Bank Holiday

6:00am

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

8:30am

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

2:00pm

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

7:30pm

CAD

BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

10:45pm

NZD

Building Consents m/m

11:05pm

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

11:15pm

JPY

Manufacturing PMI

11:50pm

JPY

Prelim Industrial Production m/m

30/04/14

1:00am

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence

1:30am

AUD

Private Sector Credit m/m

1:30am

JPY

Average Cash Earnings y/y

Tentative

JPY

Monetary Policy Statement

5:00am

JPY

Housing Starts y/y

6:00am

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

6:00am

JPY

BOJ Outlook Report

Tentative

JPY

BOJ Press Conference

7:55am

EUR

German Unemployment Change

9:00am

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

12:15pm

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

12:30pm

CAD

GDP m/m

12:30pm

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1:45pm

USD

Chicago PMI

2:30pm

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

3:30pm

GBP

MPC Member Dale Speaks

6:00pm

USD

FOMC Statement

6:00pm

USD

Federal Funds Rate

11:30pm

AUD

AIG Manufacturing Index

1/5/2014

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

1:00am

CNY

Manufacturing PMI

1:30am

AUD

Import Prices q/q

All Day

CHF

Bank Holiday

All Day

EUR

German Bank Holiday

All Day

EUR

Italian Bank Holiday

6:00am

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

6:30am

AUD

Commodity Prices y/y

All Day

EUR

French Bank Holiday

8:30am

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

1st-5th

EUR

EU Economic Forecasts

12:30pm

USD

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

1:00pm

USD

Final Manufacturing PMI

2:00pm

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

2:00pm

USD

Construction Spending m/m

2:00pm

USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

2:30pm

USD

Natural Gas Storage

5:30pm

GBP

MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

11:30pm

JPY

Household Spending y/y

11:30pm

JPY

Unemployment Rate

11:50pm

JPY

Monetary Base y/y

FriMay 2

All Day

CNY

Bank Holiday

Tentative

AUD

HIA New Home Sales m/m

1:00am

NZD

ANZ Commodity Prices m/m

1:30am

AUD

PPI q/q

7:15am

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

7:45am

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

8:00am

EUR

Final Manufacturing PMI

8:30am

GBP

Construction PMI

9:00am

EUR

Unemployment Rate

12:30pm

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

12:30pm

USD

Unemployment Rate

12:30pm

USD

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

2:00pm

USD

Factory Orders m/m

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