USDX daily analysis for June 13, 2013
June 13, 2013 6:45 amVideo
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Daily chart: The USDX is consolidating below the 200 day moving average, so our overall outlook for this pair, would be totally bearish. But, we must be alert to the release of economic data in the U.S for today’s session. The USDX broke the support at the 81.50 level and is now trying to drop to the next support level at 80.62. If the USDX manages to break that level, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.19. On the other hand, it is very possible that the USDX will make a bullish rebound at the 80.62 level and try to climb back up to resistance at the 81.50 level, which is the 200 day moving average. The MACD indicator is still in a negative territory, but it has been brought closer to oversold levels.
H4 chart: The USDX is brought closer to the bearish trend line, near the 80.65 level. If the USDX breaks this bearish trend line, it would be expected to fall to support at the 80.19 level. On the other hand, if the USDX finds strong support for this trend line and does a rebound, it would be expected to rise again until the resistance level at 81.33. Now, the USDX is forming a higher low pattern, so that a rupture of trend line is likely. Furthermore, USDX is below 200 SMA. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory, but is approaching the neutral territory.
H1 chart: In this chart, the USDX is forming a higher low pattern above the support at the level of 80.73. If the USDX manages to break this level, it is expected to fall to support at the 80.47 level. On the other hand, if the USDX manages to break the resistance level at 81.09, it would be expected to rise to the level of 81.40. The bearish outlook is still alive and is very likely to continue breaking the USDX supports, because this market is still below the 200 day moving average. The MACD indicator remains in a neutral territory, so the USDX remains pending fundamental news for today’s session.
Fundamental outlook: For today’s session will be published at 12:30 GMT in the United States, the Core Retail Sales (Previous: -0.2% / Forecast: 0.3%), Retail Sales (Previous: 0.1% / Forecast: 0.4 %) and Unemployment Claims (Previous: 346K / Forecast: 354K). The publication of this economic data, produce high volatility in all USD pairs and in the USDX Index, so we must be cautious when making trading a couple of hours before or after 12:30 GMT.
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bearish candlestick, the support level is at 80.73, take profit is at 80.47, and stop loss is at 81.00. Place buy (long) orders only if the USDX Index breaks with a bullish candlestick, the resistance level is at 81.09, take profit is at 81.40, and stop loss is at 80.77.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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