USDJPY: Under pressure (Oct 04, 2013)
October 4, 2013 6:45 amVideo
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Overview:
USD/JPY is consolidating with bearish bias after hitting a five-week low of 96.93 Thursday, as markets are awaiting Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision: All 10 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect BOJ to stay pat on its key monetary policy. USD/JPY is undermined by flows to haven yen amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 6.45% to 17.67, S&P fell 0.9% overnight) and negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit eight-month low of 79.627 overnight; last at 79.73 versus 79.90 early Thursday) as U.S. lawmakers remained at an impasse over terms for reopening the federal government, while the deadline to raise the nation’s borrowing limit drew closer; U.S. ISM services PMI fell more than expected to 54.4 in September from 58.6 in August (versus 57 forecast), pushing back expectations for start to Fed’s tapering of its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program. USD/JPY also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers, positions adjustment before weekend. The U.S. Labor Department said it doesn’t plan to issue its highly anticipated September jobs report Friday. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter at oversold; 5- and 15-day moving averages are declining.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. A short position is recommended with the first target at 96.8 in view; a breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 96.35. The pivot point stands at 97.85. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support, and moves above its pivot point, then the price is most favorably expected to move further to the upside, In that scenario a long position is recommended with the first target at 98.10 and the second target at 98.35.
Support levels:
96.8
96.35
96
Resistance levels:
98.1
98.35
98.75
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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