USDJPY: consolidation with Bullish Bias (Dec 13, 2013)
December 13, 2013 2:45 pm
Overview: USD/JPY is trading with bullish bias after hitting a six-month high of 103.63 this morning. It is underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.19 versus 79.88 early Thursday) on stronger-than-expected 0.7% increase in U.S. November retail sales (versus forecast +0.6%) and larger-than-expected 0.7% rise in U.S. October business inventories (versus forecast +0.3%), raising odds that the Federal Reserve might start winding down its monthly $85 billion bond-buying program at its meeting on Dec. 17 and 18, although most market participants still see Fed tapering as a 2014 event. USD/JPY is also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields; demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; weak yen sentiment on expectations that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary easing measures further to support economic growth and to reach its 2% inflation target by the end of March 2016–BOJ Gov. Kuroda told the Financial Times on Thursday that the bank intend to achieve the 2% inflation target and maintain that in a stable manner, suggesting ultra-easy money could remain in place well beyond the two-year timeframe the BOJ has given itself to achieve the goal. But dollar sentiment is dented by larger-than-expected 368,000 U.S. jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 7 (versus forecast 328,000), and 0.6% on-month drop in U.S. November import price index (versus forecast 0.5% drop). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend.
Technical comment: Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics reverted to bullish mode; the 5- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.9 and the second target at 104.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.9. The breach of this target will move the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.4. The pivot point stands at 103.15.
Resistance levels: 103.9 104.45 104.8 Support levels: 102.9 102.4 101.9
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Overview:
USD/JPY is trading with bullish bias after hitting a six-month high of 103.63 this morning. It is underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.19 versus 79.88 early Thursday) on stronger-than-expected 0.7% increase in U.S. November retail sales (versus forecast +0.6%) and larger-than-expected 0.7% rise in U.S. October business inventories (versus forecast +0.3%), raising odds that the Federal Reserve might start winding down its monthly $85 billion bond-buying program at its meeting on Dec. 17 and 18, although most market participants still see Fed tapering as a 2014 event. USD/JPY is also supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields; demand from Japan importers and investment trusts; weak yen sentiment on expectations that the Bank of Japan will expand monetary easing measures further to support economic growth and to reach its 2% inflation target by the end of March 2016–BOJ Gov. Kuroda told the Financial Times on Thursday that the bank intend to achieve the 2% inflation target and maintain that in a stable manner, suggesting ultra-easy money could remain in place well beyond the two-year timeframe the BOJ has given itself to achieve the goal. But dollar sentiment is dented by larger-than-expected 368,000 U.S. jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 7 (versus forecast 328,000), and 0.6% on-month drop in U.S. November import price index (versus forecast 0.5% drop). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics reverted to bullish mode; the 5- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.9 and the second target at 104.45. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.9. The breach of this target will move the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 102.4. The pivot point stands at 103.15.
Resistance levels:
103.9
104.45
104.8
Support levels:
102.9
102.4
101.9
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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