U.S. Dollar in almost Four-Month Low Versus Counterparts
March 19, 2014 7:56 amVideo
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The dollar hits a four-month low versus its counterparts amid bets the Federal Reserve will bring down its unemployment rate threshold today and adopt qualitative guidance for signaling when it will boost interest rates.
Traders’ expectations of future currency fluctuations stayed near the weakest since 2012 after President Vladimir Putin said Russia isn’t seeking to split Ukraine further following the secession of its Crimea region. The yuan begins to exchange straightly versus New Zealand’s dollar today. China’s currency completed the largest three-day pullback yesterday since at least 2007 amid concern monetary risk is surging.
“I don’t think there’s even a single person in the world who still thinks the Fed’s jobless-rate guideline is effective,” said Masato Yanagiya, the head of foreign exchange and money trading in New York at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. “There appear to be more people expecting the Fed to be a little bit more dovish on rates.”
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which records the U.S. currency versus its 10 major peers, was slightly altered at 1,012.00 as of 11:01 a.m. in Tokyo. It reached 1,011.35 on March 17, the weakest since November 1.
The greenback exchanged at 101.34 yen after downgrading 0.3 percent to 101.44 yesterday. It was at $1.3930 per euro following a 0.1 percent sag down to $1.3934. Europe’s common currency relinquished 0.1 percent to 141.17 yen.
Deutsche Bank AG’s index based on three-month implied volatility on nine major pairs was at 7.41 percent after slumping to 7.14 percent on March 12, the bottom position since December 2012.
Speech of President Putin
Putin yesterday told Russian lawmakers not to believe “those who scare you with Russia, who yell that Crimea will be followed by other regions.” While he stated that Russia doesn’t plan to further split up Ukraine, Putin emphasized his power to defend Russian speakers in Ukraine’s east.
Crimea voted on March 16 to join Russia, which should inked a treaty acknowledging the peninsula’s accession, according to an order penned by Putin and shown on a government website. The U.S. and European Union set asset freezes and travel bans yesterday on affiliates of Putin’s inner circle and Crimean leaders.
“I don’t see much enthusiasm from the West for sanctions as they are limited to individuals,” said Sumitomo Mitsui Banking’s Yanagiya. “Markets are noticing that the West pretends to be taking action but actually is trying to fudge the situation.”
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index for U.S. shares, known as the VIX or the investor fear gauge, recorded a two-day decline of 19 percent yesterday, the most since February 7.
Fear in the Market
Putin’s speech soothed “market fears (for now) that the crisis will escalate further,” Spiros Papadopoulos, a Melbourne-based senior economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. wrote in a research note. “It gave investors the chance to start focusing on the U.S. FOMC meeting.”
The Federal Open Market Committee will finalize its first assembly today after Janet Yellen succeeded Ben S. Bernanke as chair last month. The central bank will possibly dismiss its 6.5 percent unemployment-rate threshold in favor of qualitative guidance for signifying when it will consider boosting the benchmark interest rate, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The jobless rate was at 6.7 percent in February, near the weakest since October 2008.
The yuan sagged down 0.2 percent to 6.1920 per dollar yesterday. The currency relinquished 0.9 percent since March 13, the largest three-day decline in data going back to April 2007.
Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co., a closely held firm with 3.5 billion yuan ($565 million) of debt, collapsed and its biggest shareholder was detained, government officials familiar with the matter stated last March 17. The lack of success came less than two weeks after the first bond default by a Chinese firm, Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co.
China’s central bank marked the yuan reference rate at 5.2899 per New Zealand dollar today. The exchange rate in Shanghai is granted to move by as much as 3 percent on either side of the fixing rate.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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