Russia’s oil production may slide 14% in the next five to ten years amid initial agreement with Saudi Arabia to freeze crude output at January levels to bolster crude prices.

The country’s Energy Ministry said oil output may decline to 460 million metric tons in 2020-2025 from 534 million metric tons a year ago. In a worst case scenario, the ministry emphasized oil prices would stay at approximately $31 to $33 per barrel between 2016 and 2017, rebounding to $42 per barrel in 2020.

That scenario presumed demand in China and other Asian countries dwindles on degenerating economic expansion, the United States raises shale output, and Middle East nations bolster cheap supplies.

Russia has been contending with its longest recession in two decades as slumping oil prices and global sanctions have dented its economy over the Ukrainian crisis.

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