Today data on PMI Manufacturing in the Eurozone in October is published (at 13:00 UTC+4), it is expected to be flat, 51.3. In the United Kingdom PMI Construction in October is revealed (at 13:30 UTC+4), it is forecast to be also unchanged, 58.9. In the United States data on Factory Orders is published for two-month period, for August and September, both figures are expected to grow, 0.2% vs. -2.4% in July and a 1.9% growth in September, i.e. the US data continues to be better than in Europe and in the UK.
On Wednesday data on Retail Sales in the Eurozone is September is expected to be weak (-0.3% vs. 0.7%) and UK GDP forecast by National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR GDP Estimate) in October; it is estimated to be 0.5% vs. 0.9% in September. On Thursday, the ECB publishes decision on the interest rate. The ECB policymakers have warned that the rate might be slashed, or there might be taken some other measures of monetary easing.
Thus, there are no prerequisites for a considerable correction in the near term, some temporary pauses in form of horizontal formations are possible. However, on Thursday US GDP in the first estimate in the third quarter is revealed, forecast 1.9% vs. 2.5% in the second quarter. Here we may expect suspense.
We continue to expect the drop of the price of the euro to the levels: 1.3450, 1.3385/00, and 1.3300 and the price of the British pound is expected to drop towards 1.5880/900, 1.5820, and 1.5775.
AUD/USD.
On Friday, the Australian dollar dropped 18 points, which was helped by strong data on AIG Manufacturing Index in October (53.2 vs. 51.7 in September) and Producer Price Index in the third quarter grew 1.3% vs. forecast for 0.4%. On Thursday, data on Building Approvals grew 14.4% vs. expectations for 2.9%.
This morning data on Retail Sales in Austral was published, the growth was 0.8% vs. expectations for 0.5% and the figure in August was revised upwardly from 0.4% to 0.5%. Amis the news the Aussie grew 50 points.
Tomorrow Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest rate decision, no changes are expected. On Wednesday, data on Trade Balance in September is revealed; it is expected to be better.
Oil continues to depreciate (-3.11% for a week), Bloomberg expects decline this weeks due to oil inventories increase. The prices of nonferrous metals were declining during the previous week. According to forecast, the price of the ore in the fourth quarter will be $128 per ton vs. $132 in the third quarter. Last week the price of the ore was $131.3 per ton.
After the correction is completed and taking into account the strength of the US dollar, we expect further decline of the Australian dollar to the levels 0.9400, 0.9352 (the high of September 12), and 0.9280.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
Today data on PMI Manufacturing in the Eurozone in October is published (at 13:00 UTC+4), it is expected to be flat, 51.3. In the United Kingdom PMI Construction in October is revealed (at 13:30 UTC+4), it is forecast to be also unchanged, 58.9. In the United States data on Factory Orders is published for two-month period, for August and September, both figures are expected to grow, 0.2% vs. -2.4% in July and a 1.9% growth in September, i.e. the US data continues to be better than in Europe and in the UK.
On Wednesday data on Retail Sales in the Eurozone is September is expected to be weak (-0.3% vs. 0.7%) and UK GDP forecast by National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR GDP Estimate) in October; it is estimated to be 0.5% vs. 0.9% in September. On Thursday, the ECB publishes decision on the interest rate. The ECB policymakers have warned that the rate might be slashed, or there might be taken some other measures of monetary easing.
Thus, there are no prerequisites for a considerable correction in the near term, some temporary pauses in form of horizontal formations are possible. However, on Thursday US GDP in the first estimate in the third quarter is revealed, forecast 1.9% vs. 2.5% in the second quarter. Here we may expect suspense.
We continue to expect the drop of the price of the euro to the levels: 1.3450, 1.3385/00, and 1.3300 and the price of the British pound is expected to drop towards 1.5880/900, 1.5820, and 1.5775.
AUD/USD.
On Friday, the Australian dollar dropped 18 points, which was helped by strong data on AIG Manufacturing Index in October (53.2 vs. 51.7 in September) and Producer Price Index in the third quarter grew 1.3% vs. forecast for 0.4%. On Thursday, data on Building Approvals grew 14.4% vs. expectations for 2.9%.
This morning data on Retail Sales in Austral was published, the growth was 0.8% vs. expectations for 0.5% and the figure in August was revised upwardly from 0.4% to 0.5%. Amis the news the Aussie grew 50 points.
Tomorrow Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest rate decision, no changes are expected. On Wednesday, data on Trade Balance in September is revealed; it is expected to be better.
Oil continues to depreciate (-3.11% for a week), Bloomberg expects decline this weeks due to oil inventories increase. The prices of nonferrous metals were declining during the previous week. According to forecast, the price of the ore in the fourth quarter will be $128 per ton vs. $132 in the third quarter. Last week the price of the ore was $131.3 per ton.
After the correction is completed and taking into account the strength of the US dollar, we expect further decline of the Australian dollar to the levels 0.9400, 0.9352 (the high of September 12), and 0.9280.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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