Fundamental review of the Forex market for November 20, 2013
November 20, 2013 10:45 am
EUR/USD, GBP/USD.
Yesterday the major news turned out to be negative. ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) in the Eurozone in November was 60.2 vs. expectations for 63.1. OECD has slashed GDP forecast for the Eurozone in 2014 from 1.1% to 1.0%; the organization raised the forecast for Japan from 1.4% to 1.5%. After the news was released the euro and the British pound started to decline, however, afterwards they were bought, as on Monday, amid falling stock market.
The actions of the major investors are unpredictable as today there may be negative data on the US. At 17:30 UTC+4 Retail Sales in the US is expected to rise 0.1% vs. decline for 0.1% in September. Core Retail Sales is estimated to grow 0.1% vs. 0.4% in September. At 19:00 UTC+4 data on Existing Home Sales in the US is revealed, forecast 5.17 million (annually) vs. 5.29 million in September. At 23:00 UTC+4 Minutes of FOMC meeting are published. There may be the sign of the QE3 trimming in it.
In the UK at 13:30 UTC+4 Bank of England meeting Minutes are issued.
As the situation on the market has not changed for the last 24 hours and negative is accumulated, we expect close of long positions on the euro and the British pound.
AUD/USD.
Since our last analysis of the Australian dollar the situation has been developed as it was outlined. However, the growth was weaker than expected. Oil has not grown staying at the levels of the previous week. Gold has lost 1.4% for two days. Index of the industrial non-ferrous metals grew 1.0%, which along with the weakness of the US dollar has helped to raise the Aussie.
Yesterday three major banks ANZ Banking Group, Citi and UBS sold 20-year Australian bonds for $5.9 billion with 4.86% yield. It is the biggest onetime deal for the Australian market of bonds. The Ministry for Finance has announced about the increase of sales of long-term bonds, the longest for 50 years. On the one hand, the 30% of national debt of the Australian GDP is not high compared to the other countries. However, the investors fear that Australia may lose the control on the stability and this may influence the Australian dollar.
USD/JPY.
Today data on Trade Balance in October in Japan is revealed. Data was lower than expected, however, it was better than expected. Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance was -1.07 trillion yen vs. expectations for -880 billion and -1.13 trillion in September. Merchandise Trade Balance Total was -1.09 trillion yen vs. forecast for -814 billion yen and revised downwardly September’s figures to -1.13 trillion yen (earlier it was -1.09 trillion). The first market reaction was the growth amid the idea of increase in exports from 11.5% (annually) to 18.6% (annually) as the export increases for the eight month in a row. However, the import grew from 16.5% to 26.1%.
If the data is weak, we expect the decline of the yen to the levels of 99.40 and 99.10. If the data is positive, we expect the growth will be resumed to the area 100.45/60.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
EUR/USD, GBP/USD.
Yesterday the major news turned out to be negative. ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) in the Eurozone in November was 60.2 vs. expectations for 63.1. OECD has slashed GDP forecast for the Eurozone in 2014 from 1.1% to 1.0%; the organization raised the forecast for Japan from 1.4% to 1.5%. After the news was released the euro and the British pound started to decline, however, afterwards they were bought, as on Monday, amid falling stock market.
The actions of the major investors are unpredictable as today there may be negative data on the US. At 17:30 UTC+4 Retail Sales in the US is expected to rise 0.1% vs. decline for 0.1% in September. Core Retail Sales is estimated to grow 0.1% vs. 0.4% in September. At 19:00 UTC+4 data on Existing Home Sales in the US is revealed, forecast 5.17 million (annually) vs. 5.29 million in September. At 23:00 UTC+4 Minutes of FOMC meeting are published. There may be the sign of the QE3 trimming in it.
In the UK at 13:30 UTC+4 Bank of England meeting Minutes are issued.
As the situation on the market has not changed for the last 24 hours and negative is accumulated, we expect close of long positions on the euro and the British pound.
AUD/USD.
Since our last analysis of the Australian dollar the situation has been developed as it was outlined. However, the growth was weaker than expected. Oil has not grown staying at the levels of the previous week. Gold has lost 1.4% for two days. Index of the industrial non-ferrous metals grew 1.0%, which along with the weakness of the US dollar has helped to raise the Aussie.
Yesterday three major banks ANZ Banking Group, Citi and UBS sold 20-year Australian bonds for $5.9 billion with 4.86% yield. It is the biggest onetime deal for the Australian market of bonds. The Ministry for Finance has announced about the increase of sales of long-term bonds, the longest for 50 years. On the one hand, the 30% of national debt of the Australian GDP is not high compared to the other countries. However, the investors fear that Australia may lose the control on the stability and this may influence the Australian dollar.
USD/JPY.
Today data on Trade Balance in October in Japan is revealed. Data was lower than expected, however, it was better than expected. Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance was -1.07 trillion yen vs. expectations for -880 billion and -1.13 trillion in September. Merchandise Trade Balance Total was -1.09 trillion yen vs. forecast for -814 billion yen and revised downwardly September’s figures to -1.13 trillion yen (earlier it was -1.09 trillion). The first market reaction was the growth amid the idea of increase in exports from 11.5% (annually) to 18.6% (annually) as the export increases for the eight month in a row. However, the import grew from 16.5% to 26.1%.
If the data is weak, we expect the decline of the yen to the levels of 99.40 and 99.10. If the data is positive, we expect the growth will be resumed to the area 100.45/60.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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