Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for April 30, 2014
April 30, 2014 6:45 am
Forecast-
Today traders will eye CPI flash estimates. Consumer prices in Germany are expected to rise by 1.3% in April 2014 compared with April 2013. The Federal Statistical Office also reports that the consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.2% on March 2014 and most important event – the Federal Reserve statement. The negative waves will strike if the Fed changes in its policy.
Review-
GERMAN PRELIM CPI-
German inflation accelerated less than economists forecast in April, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank to add stimulus in the euro area. Inflation, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, was 1.1 percent, up from 0.9 percent in March, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had predicted a rate of 1.3 percent. The final results for April 2014 will be released on 14 May 2014.
SPAIN UNEMPLOYMENT-
Spain’s unemployment rate has climbed to nearly 26 percent in the first quarter of 2014 as millions searched in vain for a job in a sluggish recovery from recession. The unemployment rate climbed to 25.93 percent in the first three months of 2014, up from 25.73 percent in the previous quarter, the National Statistics Institute said.
EU MONEY SUPPLY-
The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 1.3% in February 2014, compared with 1.2% in January 2014. The three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from December 2013 to February 2014 stood at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous period.
Technical view-
In the Asia’s trading session, the pair is trading at 1.3809 levels. The pair made a double top during yesterday’s trading session at 1.3880 levels. It was exactly taking support at 50SMA on the daily chart at 1.3806. It is clear that the current trading pattern is framed between 1.3880-1.38/1.3780 levels. Today’s trading perspective, we expect the pair will pull back towards 1.3823, 1.3830 and 1.3870, cmp 1.3810. On the up side, the pair will face strong resistance at 1.3815 and 1.3823 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.3780 levels, until it breaks this level, don’t go short. Safe traders can short only below 1.3780. The range between 1.38-1.3780 is a support zone. Below 1.3780, it will drift immediately towards 1.3762, 1.3750, 1.3737, 1.37 and 1.3673 levels.
On a positional basis, if the pair crosses the double top at 1.3880, it will fly up to 1.3906, 1.3934, 1.3950 and 1.4. A day close above the 1.3880 will produce a bullish wave. On the down side, a day close below 1.38 a new bearish wave will take all the pair towards 1.3673, 1.3643 and even 1.3593 levels. For positional sellers, wait for a chance to sell at higher levels at 1.3880-1.3906. Until the pair trades below the 1.3906 levels, the bear power will work.
Forecast-
Today traders will eye CPI flash estimates. Consumer
prices in Germany are expected to rise by 1.3% in April 2014 compared with
April 2013. The Federal Statistical Office also reports that the consumer
prices are expected to decline by 0.2% on March 2014 and most important event – the Federal Reserve statement. The negative waves will strike if the Fed changes in its policy.
Review-
GERMAN PRELIM CPI-
German inflation accelerated
less than economists forecast in April, increasing pressure on the European
Central Bank to add stimulus in the euro area. Inflation, calculated using a
harmonized European Union method, was 1.1 percent, up from 0.9 percent in
March, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had predicted
a rate of 1.3 percent. The final results
for April 2014 will be released on 14 May 2014.
SPAIN UNEMPLOYMENT-
Spain’s unemployment rate has climbed to nearly 26 percent
in the first quarter of 2014 as millions searched in vain for a job in a
sluggish recovery from recession. The unemployment rate climbed to 25.93 percent
in the first three months of 2014, up from 25.73 percent in the previous
quarter, the National Statistics Institute said.
EU MONEY SUPPLY-
The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3
stood at 1.3% in February 2014, compared with 1.2% in January 2014. The
three-month average of the annual growth rates of M3 in the period from
December 2013 to February 2014 stood at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous
period.
Technical view-
In the Asia’s trading
session, the pair is trading at 1.3809 levels. The pair made a double top during yesterday’s trading session at 1.3880
levels. It was exactly taking support at 50SMA on the daily chart at 1.3806. It
is clear that the current trading pattern is framed between 1.3880-1.38/1.3780
levels. Today’s trading perspective, we expect the pair will pull back towards
1.3823, 1.3830 and 1.3870, cmp 1.3810. On the up side, the pair will face strong
resistance at 1.3815 and 1.3823 levels. On the down side, the pair has strong
support at 1.3780 levels, until it breaks this level, don’t go short. Safe traders can short only below
1.3780. The range between 1.38-1.3780 is a support zone. Below 1.3780, it will
drift immediately towards 1.3762, 1.3750, 1.3737, 1.37 and 1.3673 levels.
On a positional basis, if the pair crosses the double top at
1.3880, it will fly up to 1.3906, 1.3934, 1.3950 and 1.4. A day close above the
1.3880 will produce a bullish wave. On the down side, a day close below 1.38 a
new bearish wave will take all the pair towards 1.3673, 1.3643 and even 1.3593
levels. For positional sellers, wait for a chance to sell at higher levels at 1.3880-1.3906. Until the pair trades below the 1.3906 levels, the bear power
will work.
Intraday key levels- 1.3815> 1.3823> 1.3830>
1.3857> 1.3880
1.38< 1.3780< 1.3762< 1.3737< 1.37
< 1.3673
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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