Forex News – Euro unemployment / inflation, US, UK GDP revisions and Japanese CPI in week ahead
February 21, 2014 1:44 pm
Major headline-grabbing news will probably be absent from the week ahead, as a raft of economic data will illuminate the state of the Eurozone economy and whether Japanese inflation is on course for 1.5%. Revisions to the GDP data of the United States and the United Kingdom will also be closely watched.
For the euro, the week kicks off with the German IFO business climate survey for February, expected to be little changed from the previous month’s figure at 110.6, which was a 2 ½ -year high. The final inflation numbers for January will also be released, expected to be in line with the preliminary inflation announcement at 0.7%. There will then be a relative lull in euro economic releases, as they will resume on Thursday with German unemployment and inflation followed on Friday by the all-important Eurozone unemployment for January and flash inflation estimate for February.
With respect to the dollar, Monday will feature the Markit Services PMI followed on Tuesday by the Case-Shiller home price index which is expected to show home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rising by 13.1% year-on-year in December. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence will also be released on Tuesday. Thursday and Friday will be busy for US dollar traders as January’s durable goods orders will be announced on Thursday and the revised 4th quarter GDP figures on Friday. The initial advance estimate for US GDP growth was 3.2% (annualized pace), but economists expect a downward revision to around 2.7%. Still it was a very good second half for the US economy and many analysts believe the performance of the second half might have ‘borrowed’ somewhat from the first half of 2014. As a result, growth rates during the first half of 2014 could be weaker-than-expected.
Fed speakers could also move the dollar with speeches planned for Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.
Friday will be a big day for Japan-watchers, as the country’s national (January) and Tokyo’s (February) inflation rates will come out, together with unemployment, retail sales, manufacturing PMI and household spending. The focus will be on whether Japan’s economy has sufficient momentum at the start of 2014 to weather the ‘speed bump’ of the April sales tax increase or if the tax hike will derail the weak Japanese economic recovery. Low inflation could also put more pressure on the Bank of Japan to add to its already huge stimulus later in the year.
Finally, it will be a relatively quiet week for UK economic releases, as the only significant announcement will be the revised 4th quarter GDP data on Wednesday. Analysts expect the revised growth rate to come in line with the initial estimate of 2.8%. Governor Carney is also scheduled to speak on Friday but otherwise next week’s movements in sterling crosses should not be the result of UK economic news.
Major headline-grabbing news will probably be absent from the week ahead, as a raft of economic data will illuminate the state of the Eurozone economy and whether Japanese inflation is on course for 1.5%. Revisions to the GDP data of the United States and the United Kingdom will also be closely watched.
For the euro, the week kicks off with the German IFO business climate survey for February, expected to be little changed from the previous month’s figure at 110.6, which was a 2 ½ -year high. The final inflation numbers for January will also be released, expected to be in line with the preliminary inflation announcement at 0.7%. There will then be a relative lull in euro economic releases, as they will resume on Thursday with German unemployment and inflation followed on Friday by the all-important Eurozone unemployment for January and flash inflation estimate for February.
With respect to the dollar, Monday will feature the Markit Services PMI followed on Tuesday by the Case-Shiller home price index which is expected to show home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rising by 13.1% year-on-year in December. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence will also be released on Tuesday. Thursday and Friday will be busy for US dollar traders as January’s durable goods orders will be announced on Thursday and the revised 4th quarter GDP figures on Friday. The initial advance estimate for US GDP growth was 3.2% (annualized pace), but economists expect a downward revision to around 2.7%. Still it was a very good second half for the US economy and many analysts believe the performance of the second half might have ‘borrowed’ somewhat from the first half of 2014. As a result, growth rates during the first half of 2014 could be weaker-than-expected.
Fed speakers could also move the dollar with speeches planned for Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.
Friday will be a big day for Japan-watchers, as the country’s national (January) and Tokyo’s (February) inflation rates will come out, together with unemployment, retail sales, manufacturing PMI and household spending. The focus will be on whether Japan’s economy has sufficient momentum at the start of 2014 to weather the ‘speed bump’ of the April sales tax increase or if the tax hike will derail the weak Japanese economic recovery. Low inflation could also put more pressure on the Bank of Japan to add to its already huge stimulus later in the year.
Finally, it will be a relatively quiet week for UK economic releases, as the only significant announcement will be the revised 4th quarter GDP data on Wednesday. Analysts expect the revised growth rate to come in line with the initial estimate of 2.8%. Governor Carney is also scheduled to speak on Friday but otherwise next week’s movements in sterling crosses should not be the result of UK economic news.
Related Posts: