EUR/USD. Forecast for May 23, 2013
May 23, 2013 10:45 amVideo
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After yesterday’s speech of the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke and publication of FOMC reports, US stock market lost more than half a per cent (S&P500 -0.85%), the euro dropped 48 points.
“What we are looking for is increased confidence that the labor market is improving and that that improvement is sustainable,” Bernanke told yesterday. “And as we see that, we will in steps respond to that by reducing the amount of accommodation in a way that’s appropriate.”
US stocks initially extended gains while Treasuries rallied on the Fed’s Chairman remarks that an early end to its bond buying would put the economic recovery at risk.
The main idea of Bernanke’s speech was aimed at US senators to convince them not to reduce budget spendings as the Fed would not cover the deficit endlessly. Thus, Bernanke preserved the intrigue until the next FOMC meeting scheduled at June 18-19.
Revealed reports showed that there is no single view about the date the program will be abandoned. The situation should clear up in June.
Today at 11:00 GMT+4 Services and Manufacturing PMI in France and Germany in May are published. It is expected to grow in France from 44.4 to 44.8 (Manufacturing PMI) and Service PMI is estimated to rise from 44.3 to 44.7. In Germany Services PMI is expected to be 50.2 vs. 49.6. At 12:00 GMT+4 data on the eurozone is published, 47.4 vs. 47.0 (Service PMI) and 47.1 vs. 46.7 (Manufacturing PMI). Strong data on Italian Retail sales are expected (0.3% vs. -0.2%).
At 14:05 GMT+4 James Bullard, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louise speaks. At 16:30 GMT+4 US Initial Jobless Claims will be revealed, forecast 347K vs. 360K. AT 17:00 GMT+4 Manufacturing ISM in May, forecast 51.6 vs. 52.1. At 18:00 GMT+4 data on US New Home Sales in April is issued, forecast 429K vs. 417K in March.
At 23:30 GMT+4 the ECB President Mario Draghi speaks.
Thus, today a day of correction is expected.
If the price breaks the resistance of trend line on the H4 1.2856, such targets as 1.2882, the resistance of Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding), 1.2905, the resistance of trend line, 1.2932, the highs of May 10 and 16, open.
If today’s low 1.2824 is broken, testing of the support of trend line 1.2795 is possible, it coincides with the low of May 17.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
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