Yesterday the European and US data were worse than expected. GDP in the eurozone in Q1 dropped 0.2% vs. forecast for -0.1%, US Industrial Production fell 0.5% vs. estimates for a 0.1% drop. As the result the euro dropped 35 points.

Today at 13:00 GMT+4 Trade Balance in the eurozone in March is issued, forecast 11.8 billion euros vs. 12.0 billion in February. At 16:30 GMT+4 data on US Building Permits and Housing Starts in April is revealed. Housing Starts are expected to be 0.98 million annually against 1.04 million in March. Building permits are estimated to be 0.94 million vs. 0.91 million in March. At 18:00 Philadelphia Fed index in May is estimated to be 2.5 vs. 1.3 in the previous month. At 20:30 GMT+4 Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin speaks.

If data on Trade Balance in the eurozone is weak, we expect one more test of the support of the trendline on the level of 1.2834. Then US data will be of great importance. If the news is positive, the price may reverse to the Fibonacci extension on the H4 (1.2900/05). If during the European trading session the situation is positive, the price may test the level higher 1.2905, towards the target range of the next extension, 1.2945/62. If data on both the eurozone and the US is weak, the price may drop to 1.2810.


 

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