Strong US Dollar Again, Are We Seeing New Market Trend?
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the EUR/USD short Squeeze failed to kick on in the Europeanand US sessions yesterday and we found ourselves back at 1.3050 in Asian trade Friday.The outlook is mixed with the USD strong across the board after stronger thanforecast economic data. US Preliminary GDP came in at 0.1% vs. -0.1%previously. Chicago PMI came in 56.8 vs. 54.3 forecast. Finally Weekly JoblessClaims came in at 344k vs. 260k forecast. Looking ahead, February Manufacturing ISM forecast at 52.5 vs. 53.1previously. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD reversal yesterday has put the focusback on the downside with the 1.3000 big support level just below the 1.3050closing levels. The market is suffering under the broad USD rally and therecent downtrend in the major. The EUR/JPY is dominating the headlines andcharts of most traders with lots of daily movement and potential both wayaction. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was quiet but well supported by EUR/GBP selling which fellback to 0.8600 by the end of the trading day. Cable has been grinding higher and testing 1.5200twice this week and a third attempt may see the struggling Pound get some raretopside momentum. Looking ahead, February PMI manufacturing forecast at 51 vs.50.8 previously. Looking ahead, mortgage approvals forecast at 56.5 vs. 55.8.February EU PMI forecast at 47.8 vs. 47.8 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY is benefitting from strength in the USDand ongoing expectations that the Japanese will continue with easy monetarypolicy. The Yen crosses are suffering however from the weakness in the majorswith AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY especially weak. The BOJ Governors have beenofficially nominated with Kuroda as Governor and Iwata as deputy. Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD soared to 1.2080 after the CAPEX datashowed mining data was stronger than forecast defying pessimist predictions ofa crash in investment. The AUD/USD rally was briefly however as USD strengthand technical resistance held strong and we ended back at the 1.0225 supportlevel.Update Chinese PMI at 50.1 vs. 50.2 forecast.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was sold for a second day in a worrying signfor the bulls caught long after the recent break above $1600oz. USD strengthand persistently strong US data has seen a change in sentiment towards Gold. OIL/USD was sold aggressively form $93 to $91.50 supportsas the US stocks fell late on US budget gridlock concerns.
Daily Outlook 00:00 GMT 1- Mar-2013
Strong US Dollar Again, Are We Seeing New Market Trend?
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the EUR/USD short Squeeze failed to kick on in the Europeanand US sessions yesterday and we found ourselves back at 1.3050 in Asian trade Friday.The outlook is mixed with the USD strong across the board after stronger thanforecast economic data. US Preliminary GDP came in at 0.1% vs. -0.1%previously. Chicago PMI came in 56.8 vs. 54.3 forecast. Finally Weekly JoblessClaims came in at 344k vs. 260k forecast. Looking ahead, February Manufacturing ISM forecast at 52.5 vs. 53.1previously. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD reversal yesterday has put the focusback on the downside with the 1.3000 big support level just below the 1.3050closing levels. The market is suffering under the broad USD rally and therecent downtrend in the major. The EUR/JPY is dominating the headlines andcharts of most traders with lots of daily movement and potential both wayaction. The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD was quiet but well supported by EUR/GBP selling which fellback to 0.8600 by the end of the trading day. Cable has been grinding higher and testing 1.5200twice this week and a third attempt may see the struggling Pound get some raretopside momentum. Looking ahead, February PMI manufacturing forecast at 51 vs.50.8 previously. Looking ahead, mortgage approvals forecast at 56.5 vs. 55.8.February EU PMI forecast at 47.8 vs. 47.8 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY is benefitting from strength in the USDand ongoing expectations that the Japanese will continue with easy monetarypolicy. The Yen crosses are suffering however from the weakness in the majorswith AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY especially weak. The BOJ Governors have beenofficially nominated with Kuroda as Governor and Iwata as deputy. Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD soared to 1.2080 after the CAPEX datashowed mining data was stronger than forecast defying pessimist predictions ofa crash in investment. The AUD/USD rally was briefly however as USD strengthand technical resistance held strong and we ended back at the 1.0225 supportlevel.Update Chinese PMI at 50.1 vs. 50.2 forecast.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold was sold for a second day in a worrying signfor the bulls caught long after the recent break above $1600oz. USD strengthand persistently strong US data has seen a change in sentiment towards Gold. OIL/USD was sold aggressively form $93 to $91.50 supportsas the US stocks fell late on US budget gridlock concerns.
Pairs to watch
EUR/USD Focus back onthe 1.3000 support?
USD/JPY Test Y93 oncontinued US data strength?
TECHNICALCOMMENTARY
Currency
Sup 2
Sup 1
Spot
Res 1
Res 2
EUR/USD
1.3000
1.3039
1.3080
1.3170
1.3280
USD/JPY
92.02
92.25
92.50
92.94
93.50
GBP/USD
1.4949
1.5073
1.5175
1.5220
1.5395
AUD/USD
1.0150
1.0200
1.0235
1.0280
1.0329
XAU/USD
1525
1555
1581
1620
1633
OIL/USD
90.00
91.50
91.80
93.00
95.00
By Anthony Darvall (TonyD)
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone.
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